11/5/08- Obama easily wins presidential election, 364-174 (http://electoral-vote.com/). Where did the republicans go wrong?
1. George W. Bush- Having the president with jsut about the worst approval rating ever preceding you doesn't help your campaign at all, espiecally when your oppenent can point out you voted with him 90% of the time.
Bush approval rating 9/11/01 = 90+%
Bush approval rating today= ~28%
Source:http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm
2. The War in Iraq- The majority of Americans wish we never went into Iraq. This is a fact, here are some polls for the non-beleivers(and develepers of TPM that think the public favors the War):
"On September 10-12 (2007), in an Associated Press-Ipsos poll of 1,000 adults conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, 33% approved of George Bush's handling of the "situation in Iraq", while 65% disapproved of it."
"On August 6-8 (2007), CNN polled 1,029 adults nationwide. 33% said they favored the war in Iraq, 64% opposed, and 3% was undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 3%."
3.Republicans picked a boring canidate: Republicans could have picked someone that people were excited about like Ron Paul (yes, I said it), someone with a large grassroots movement (just like President Obama's), and someone with major fundraising ability (many of those supporters ironically went over to Obama once Paul dropped out, as they wanted change and out of Iraq).
Instead, McCain ends up getting the nomination and you get a canidate thats weak on the economy- "I don't know as much on the economy as I should" (Romney looks better every day). Not to mention Obama raising 2-3 times more money thus outspending McCain 3-1 on TV advertisements.
4. Picking Palin: Palin provided a spark that energized the base, but not much else. She soon was withheld from the press, and turned into the laughing stock of late night TV. Somone with a strong economic background (Romney?) would have been a better choice.
In response to soon coming comments - yes, things can change but it will be all but impossible for McCain to turn things around in Florida, Ohio, Virgina, Nevada, and North Carolina with less then a month to go and only 1 debate left, which he hasn't been fareing well enough in so far.
Yes- Obama has many flaws, as the election goes on I don't even agree with many of his policies anymore but IMO he fits the Americans needs right now as he plans to end the War in Iraq, and is seen as better for the economy than McCain.
For anyone wondering where I got the electoral vote prediction you can check out this site, it's updated daily with new polls. http://electoral-vote.com/
1 has some to do with it, 2 has very little, 3 is closest to the truth, and 4 is just flat out wrong.
But the real BIG reason is simple. And Brad touched on it. Feelings. The Markets are tanking (they should have long ago, but then Bush and the Feds tried to avoid the inevitable).
And unless there is a significant change between now and the election, I think your electoral count is optimistic - for McCain
2 does actually have "very little" now because the economy issue is so big now, but as for 4, I think this has something to do with it, look at polls before the conventions and polls now, I believe Palin is part of the big swing towards Obama.
Maybe Indiana will go blue for the first time since ?
I don't think it's too late to turn it around here in Ohio. The polls are all over the place here, although they all favor Obama slightly.
McCain isn't the strongest candidate ever to run, but he's unfortunately the best pick we've got right now. Third party candidates don't stand a chance anymore, Pero blew that years ago with his waffling about whether or not to run.
I think the Palin factor is a no-effect because of the offset. Yes, it is making some solidify their vote for Obama, but it also shored up McCain's base, so the effect is nil.
Indiana may go to Obama - but then so may Virginia. But not because of Palin.
Yeah I wasn't crediting Indiana to the Palin effect, I was just saying that's interesting. Latest polls show Virginia pretty solid blue, which is also interesting... my current home state of Utah will likely never go blue again, they'd vote for a turd over a democrat
I do not think republicans chose McCain. Many Republicans were apprehensive this year, thanks to the Bush Adminstration, about running. I think the Republicans best shot all along, Romney, is a good example. He cut his losses early. With everyone dropping out, only McCain(the make-believe maverick), Huckabee(To the right of the Bush Adminstration socially), and Ron Paul(a libertarian in disguise) were left. McCain had an easy walk in to the convention.
I do want to give you a Thumbs up emximer. This is a good over all article in a time when they are hard to find in the political forums.
I agree. It seems to me that the states with Independant voting in the beginning primaries allowed the Independants to have more of a say than the registered Republicans.
The same goes for the Democrats as well.
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