This one really caught my eye. It seems that one of the original designers of the PC thinks the answer is “Yes.”
The engineer who thinks so is none less that IBM’s Middle East and Africa’s CTO, Mark Dean. He was one of the magic twelve who designed IBM’s PC
thirty years ago.
“PCs are being replaced at the center of computing not by another type of device — though there’s plenty of excitement about smartphones and tablets — but by new ideas about the role that computing can play in progress. These days, it’s becoming clear that innovation flourishes best not on devices but in the social spaces between them, where people and ideas meet and interact. It is there that computing can have the most powerful impact on economy, society and people’s lives.” - Mark Dean
He himself states he rarely sits plunked down at his desk in front of a box and here’s where he really sheds some light on his feeling:
“I, personally, have moved beyond the PC as well. My primary computer now is a tablet. When I helped design the PC, I didn’t think I’d live long enough to witness its decline. But, while PCs will continue to be much-used devices, they’re no longer at the leading edge of computing. They’re going the way of the vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records, CRT and incandescent light bulbs.” – Ibid
I echo this. I never thought I’d use one a Pad. I chided Island Dog (who I hope is laughing heartily at my hubris). I now use it all the time, as it’s my favorite reader. In the past, I never thought I’d use a laptop nor a smart phone. Guess what.
The fact is, that our gadget horizon has expanded radically, and portability is a super must, along with vertical and horizontal integration for business/productivity as well as social networking, and entertainment. Being a Luddite won’t gain you a thing. There are many advantages (and some disadvantages) to these new platforms.
Our tech is revolutionizing our culture. No one can deny this after watching the Middle East upheavals and the London riots.
I’d like to see more ‘real’ contact between people as opposed to ‘virtual’ but face it, distances are still real.
That’s why this Community is so important and why WinCustomize is our hub.
My personal feeling is that skinning needs to be more relevant to this new world as well. I feel Stardock’s apps have to infiltrate the business and social worlds even more strongly despite Windows 7 and because of the coming Windows 8.
Windows XP is still very prevalent in the business world, but that will start declining in the near future. Wallpapers need to include mobile/pad sizes. There needs to be a miniWB for smart phones and Windows pads, as well as skinned app-tiles to defeat the horrendous “Metro” monocolored rectangles.
Since Windows 8 will have a choice (we believe) of task bar or Metro, then both these should be addressed…. and the female market should be addressed.
What are your thoughts?
Source: http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/hiner/engineer-of-original-ibm-pc-declares-end-of-pc-era/8924?tag=nl.e101
they'll have to pry my cold, dead fingers off the keyboard/trigger.......
I like watching the idiots surfing the net while walking down the side walk and to dumb to notice a red light. Horns, tire screeches, yelling and screaming. I LMAO every time witnessing natural selection in action.
I don't think a tablet can do what I like to do on a computer. Playing different games offline, playing flash games online, surfing the net with many open tabs, using word and excel.
Actually I am still surprised that Apple's ipad will not play flash. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.
As for the future of skinning and Wincustomize how about fixing the site's bugs like slow forums before starting something new?
Customization is the PC's advantage over the Pad. That large box I have humming over in the corner will always do what I want. If not ... I will 'plug' something in so it can.
I love my Desktop PC. One of the best aspects of owning a Desktop is to easily upgrade/customize the crap out of it. Everything from adding more memory, a second drive, installing additional PCIe cards or CPU coolers, and even cool bright LED fans and cold cathode lights. Laptops on the other hand, are much harder to customize (hardware wise) and have VERY limited space. So no cool LED fans for you.
Smartphones and Tablets? Virtually no customization. Lame. The best you could do is buy a decal from DecalGirl (http://www.decalgirl.com/) or something. (I have a decal for my Nintendo DS [because plain white really sucks], but that's besides the point.) They do have skins for iPads and various smartphones/tablets, as well as gaming devices. I guess that's better than nothing. But most smartphone/tablet users can't upgrade their hardware at will. Even if they could, the technology is so small and compact, that even accidentally moving a chip in the slightest could render the device useless. *sigh*. The only time i'd use a tablet or smartphone for is a boredom buster, like if I was stuck at an airport or something. Never would I use them for any serious work.
Sadly, we haven't really seen any significant NEW advancements in PC technology within the past decade or so. It's just more or less, more CPU cores, or larger hard drives/RAM capacities. And Solid State Drives are mostly based on already-existing NAND flash technology via USB Flash Drives. CPU clock speeds haven't hit over 4.0 GHz in mainstream PCs, without overclocking. Is the theoretical limit of clock cycles ~3 GHz? Why aren't we seeing 20 GHz CPUs today?
Hard Drive Capacities are becoming so large now that most people (including myself) won't even use half their drive. I believe that Hard Drives need to die, or at least become secondary storage devices. Instead of making HUGE capacities that most consumers won't even take up half the space of, why not develop a new "SATA IV, or new interface" drive for faster speeds? Oh, wait. That's what Solid State Drives are for. If the Desktop PC still prevails, then SSDs need to be pre-installed in new PCs. I can't believe that brick and mortar stores still don't carry SSDs. What a joke! (I bought my OCZ Vertex 2 from Amazon) BnM stores are WAY behind the times. selling a technology that's been on display for a year, or two, or five. They're just barely rolling out with USB 3.0 compliant devices.
My word of advice is if you're still a die-hard Desktop fan, buy everything online, or at specialty computer stores. Stay away from the likes of mainstream discount stores (like Best Buy, OfficeDepot, Wal-Mart, etc.), as they advertise tech that's a year or more old (even if it's "NEW", chances are it's obsolete before ever being manufactured) and have VERY limited options of PC peripherals. Buy from Amazon, Newegg, TigerDirect, or other hardcore gaming/Desktop PC enthusiast sites.
A few sites/publications such as MaximumPC still offer a myriad of information dedicated to hardcore Desktop PC enthusiasts (such as myself). The publication often times has tutorials on building PCs, reviews PC parts/systems/cases, etc, and it does expand into laptops/smartphones/tablets/other gadgets, but Desktops are it's primary focus. I'd recommend Maximum PC for anybody who declares themselves as hardcore Desktop PC enthusiasts. Other publications exist, such as PCWorld.
*sigh*, wow, that's a lot of rambling I just did. Just stating my points. Now i'm done.
Seriously? Whoever says the PC is dead should just give me one for free, seeing as how they have no use for it now.
If I want to use my data somewhere that is not home, I don't need a mobile device, I just need a thumb drive or a portable hard drive. I don't need something that runs out of juice right when I 'need' it most.
This 'innovation happening in social spaces' is nothing new, people worked collaboratively for years before computers became mainstream. They picked up the phone or spoke face to face. So now they can do that without even going to the office. Big whoop.
To be honest I would like to see developers of older applications come back and make their stuff more friendly towards collaboration. Except likely there isn't any money in it for them. Isn't it curious how quickly interest dries up as soon as the flow of money stops? You'd think they were trying to run a business or something.
I find it interesting that very few of the responders really read what I quoted and wrote.
Nowhere did I say "The PC (desktop) is dead" nor did Mr. Dean.
The Cliff notes:
Used to be there were only desktops. Now there are more platforms available. Mr. Dean moved beyond the desktop. I did as well. Many have.
Decentralization and diversification are occurring. These de-emphasize the desktop as more people need these platforms for work and play.
As more mobile platforms become more powerful, the opportunity presents itself to customize them... I hope Stardock avails itself of this, and diversifies into these growing niches.
You people are on drugs...yeah portable gadgets are nice but for the times you ARE at home, who the hell would rather stare at a tiny little screen than a nice big monitor display? Particularly gamers? I would much rather play games on a large monitor than something I'm holding in my hand. There will ALWAYS be a central computing station in people's homes that isn't portable. It will play games and do anything else you want it to do, anything a portable device can do. This is why some form of a desktop PC will always exist. Portable devices are for when you're out and about. There's a time for running around and there's a time for kicking back at home.
Thou are not thinking about it enough. It is left to marketing insofar as it is left to their ability to create commerials that will make a product desirable or undesirable. So it is left to the ability marketing departments.
IBM Veteran Suggests PC Doomed; Microsoft Disagrees@ Infopackets
I'm not buying what you are selling.
Actually it's a feedback loop - the marketing... but more on that tomorrow.
While I agree that certain mobile tech is coming up fast I dont think the PC/Laptop will be replaced any more than the TV has been replaced. Why?
#1. PC screens are typically much larger and easier to watch movies, etc, on than a pad, Ipod, or cell phone.
#2. A desktop Has advantages even over a laptop/pad/counsole in the gaming dept, a desktop is customizable to what ever hardware you want to run, and can typically be upgraded as new components, Os's, etc are released, "as a former hardcore gamer I remember the days of grabbing the newest Videocard out and running home to install it so i could slam my opponents even quicker than before." As long as there is a market where folks can still build their Dream PC and upgrade it as they choose, there will be a place for Desktops in the home.
The PC Just Transformed
"Its now cheaper and much more portable"
The way i see things is we are refering to the brand and not the technology. The technology has been shrank to the point we can eliminate the big box and display graphics on per with mainstream PCs at an extremely lower resolution.
This change is further amplified by mobile graphics+processors like the nvidia tegra 3 , iphones and the introduction of mobile platform support for the Unreal Engine 3. These processors can perform so well at those lower resolutions that i don't see myself playing fighting games like super street fighter 4 and tekken on a console. I really love handhelds and the upcoming Sony NGP (psp2) is incredible.
IBM processors on the SONY PSP2 (NGP) -----> quad-core ARM Cortex A9 processor and quad-core PowerVR SGX543MP4+ graphics is one frightening example. Sony has stated its performance at those resolutions comes close to the play-station 3 and is currently letting developers port the games with easy to use tools.
Prophecy will be set in Stone
If Sony releases there PS4 next year it could end the pace in which PC's are now ten times more powerful than consoles. This pace has been picking up as developers once again look to pc to deliver next gen graphics. If the gap shrinks to even 5 times more powerful then the pc will continue to be pushed into the background.
"PCs are enthusiast Markets" Markets for realism in graphics don't die cos people want call of duty graphics instead of battlefield 3 graphics"
" The so called nail on the coffin is said when handhelds become so powerful at low resolutions that PCs are left behind." Thats something that is going to eventually happen. Handhelds will also start to use Cloud systems to stream intensive graphics for games from a super computer thanks to broadband speeds up to 1gbs .which could be possible with 4g 5g networks.
1 gbs ? http://techcrunch.com/2011/03/23/zte-breaks-fiber-optic-speed-record-10tbps-over-640km/ i think we can do faster meanwhile
Oh, yes....the sense of immersion in some wild game....peered at with a magnifying glass and the earth shattering rumble of tinny 1/4" tweeters.
I can see REAL GAMING being done on a Donkey-Kong tablet or some such bullshit.
Why pray tell is the typical consumers' TeeV getting bigger and bigger so people can die in concert with the goodies/baddies in the next great action movie?
....and people think REAL gaming [not pocket billiards pong or some pissy Mario Kart] is gonna be enjoyed on a fold-up pocket-sized 'thing'?
It isn't going to happen.
There's a couple of ways to look at this.
Firstly, is the slow but unstoppable march of technology.Theoretically, once Laptops, Notebooks or 'compact PCs' reach the processing power of the basic desktop PC, the centralised desktop is dead. However, as basically everyone will know, this level of portable power has already been reached. And yet the centralised desktop is still very much here. This is because of Moore's Law. For as powerful as the portable versions of our computers are, the centralised and non-portable versions will always be significantly more powerful. This trend won't be reversed until we reach the absolute limits of transistor miniaturisation - which is the atomic level. We're probably a few decades, if not half a century, away before we break real, practical ground into what will eventually become mainstream nano-computing. Once that occurs, centralised and portable machines will level out - they'll eventually pack the amount of power.However, since current portable machines are already more than sufficent for most business applications, we should be seeing the widespread discontinuation of centralised machines. This is not occuring. The obvious reason is cost; for no matter how powerful your portable machine is, a comparable centralised machine will always be cheaper. See my above point. This means that, for businesses and most homes, centralised processing - such as desktop machines - is simply more cost effective. Until this situation is reversed - and thanks to companies like Apple, it won't be happening for a very, very long time - centralised processin will always remain the majority stake holder in the processing market.The not-so-obvious reason is simple useability. Ask anyone - and I mean anyone - who uses a Laptop, and ask them to describe the ways in which centralised machines - like a PC - are better in terms of sheer useability. Trackpads anyone?Until portable machines are the same price, and as comfortable to use, as centralised machines, Desktops will always be the focus of the market. Portable machines already meet all portable, practical applications. Word processing, internet, spreadsheets, etc.The second way to look at this situation is in the other direction: the slow decline of technology.As technology has become more advanced, it has become more seemless. All modern cars pack some form of a computer. Smart phones. Watches. Hell, your TV has enough processing power to run even basic applications, like video decoding from a USB device. Technology is becoming seemlessly intergrated into our lives. For as wonderful as portable computing is, it's about as seemless as slipping your iPad into your back pocket. For this reason alone, its the device that allows portable computing to intergrate into our lives seemlessly that will replace centralised computing. The Windows Phone is a more logical direction than your iPad for the removal of invasive technology.Streamed computing - or Cloud Computing - provided Augmented Reality-style is the most logical progression of technology. If you want to get real sci-fi, we'd be talking about information delivered neurologically to the user, rather than via screens. Pop-up displays that only you can see and hear, with a mere thought driven user interface. Once we achieve that level of intergration, desktop machines will no longer exist as they'll simply be too invasive. Like carrying your iPad in your pocket. Centralised computing, however, will increase ten fold, due to the server-side requirements of the technology.So, technically speaking, centralised computing will always be at the heart of the industry.
It's called the Sony PSP Vita.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_Vita
Why not this? http://emol.org/media/vr.html
...old ideas die hard...
www.onlive.com
I never blindly follow everywhere Technology leads-- I actually look forward to using my PC when I get free time and find it relaxing and unwinding for me to chill out at my PC at the end of the day with a nice cup of coffee-- I don't care for travel type gizmos like i-pods,etc., because when I'm out, if im not at work, I'm hiking in nature or shopping- with no time to mess with small gizmos like i-pads,etc. Heck, i'm even one of those type of people who keep my cellphone constantly turned off until I want to use it- then I turn it right off again.
When I'm home, I look forward to my stationary PC where I can unwind-- and I love a nice big screen monitor to decorate with awesome wallpapers. My computer is like an otherwordly portal for me, so if it goes by the way of the dinasours, I'll be one of them who continues to use it with pleasure.
By the way- speaking of incandescent lightbulbs-- I also refuse to part with my 30 and 40 watt bulbs- especially those 'Reveal" bulbs that give off natural light that resembles the sunlight spectrum. I made sure to stock up on those as I hate the light that the new flourescent bulbs give off- too cold and stark for my home atmosphere and too depressing a light for light deprived parts of the Country-- such as where I live in the East Coast. I use the new flourescent bulbs in areas like my basement and attic- not my bedroom , bathroom or living areas. They will be doing away with the 60 watt and higher bulbs by 2012, and by 2014, they will be discontinuing all of the 30-40 watt bulbs-- so get them now while you can! Another alternative I like to the incandescent bulbs are those full spectrum 27 watt flourescent bulbs that also mimic the same spectrum as sunlight. I hope they won't be discontinuing those.
I remember back in the 90's when thin clients were going to replace the PC. 20 years later, I tend to think they were wrong.
great bulbs and they make them in fluorescent now a days as well.
On the topic of "famous bloopers of all time", I once remarked to a fellow engineer back in the early 90s that the reason Windows would never take off (this was just before and then during Windows 3) was that no one needed to do more than one thing at once! Of course I said that with 4 computers in my office (in my defense, that was 2 Macs and 2 DOS on 2 Networks).
We do live in interesting times. What I learned from my blooper is to never say never!
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