I think the title [and sub-title] pretty much explains it....and BTW, this is not a political post, but rather a sad look at world events.
I have been following the news on events regarding Russia's dealings with the Ukraine and it has me quite worried that a full scale invasion will trigger WWIII... and then there's the lunatic in the East showing aggression to Taiwan and other neighbours in Asia.
Frankly, these are not the best of times to be alive, what with these two crackpots who could bring destruction to the world as we know it. There is nothing good about war... everyone eventually is a loser, not that these two crackpots care. They will not back down because greed and the lust for greater power is inherently too stong in them both. I mean, both are targetting countries for their industries and resources, so it's more about greed and power than it is about so-called historical ownership or self defence/peacekeeping, etc.
What do you think? Are we heading into full-scale war or will there be last minute peace deals?
This...
JOHN HALTIWANGER JAN 29, 2022, 03:03 IST
Volodymyr Zelensky accuses the West of causing 'panic' with warnings of a Russian invasion that hurts the Ukrainian economy
Interestingly Putin has never really been anything other then a mafia boss. Shortly after the the Soviet Union collapsed the Russian mafia pretty much took control. I don't think his invasion of Ukraine is a sudden snap of his sanity but rather an ongoing "thug" trait he has always carried. This was carefully crafted on his part and he spent years planning this invasion by cushioning the Russian reserve so he could withstand western sanctions. Putin has never been anything but rogue, he is just good at miss information and has played western leaders for years.Putin is smart and I believe stable. But, he really did miscalculate on the resistance of Ukraine. Ukraine's president is definitely showing the same traits as Churchill and that is exactly what Europe needs right now. I stand with the resistance of Ukraine and simply hope that we are providing the actual support they need at this time.
You are right about the Ukrainian people giving Putin far more resistance than he expected, he thought i did this in Crimea with no world backlash, so thought he could do the same with the rest of the Country.
I have to assume from previous replies Phoenix that you are a US citizen, i say this as most None UK Nationals remember Churchill as some kind of Brilliant Leader, i will explain.
The Military regard Churchill very differently than others. He was a Brutal Man who wasted good peoples lives on mass during the First World War. The Dardanelles and Gallipoli will never be forgotten by UK Armed Services, his solution to throw as many men as possible against well defended Machine Gun posts was a waste of life and a mistake. Think of him as a tool in a toolbox, a kind of "Break Glass When Needed" type of man. As A Brutal man we brought him back into power as we needed a brutal man to combat Hitler during the Second World War, a conflict his brutal ways were well suited too, But and there is always a but, when he ran for power at the end of WW2 he was kicked out as we no longer needed a man of his type running a Country Not at war. He did what was required of him during WW2 and that is what most None UK remember about him.
I Stand With The People Of Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini .
Naroon1, Yes I am a from the US. It is interesting because I have visited the UK and even went as far as visiting the popular Churchill war rooms and on the surface I can tell there is a lot of pride in the UK for their part in WW2. Honestly, you are the first person from the UK that has actually told me about this other side of Churchill. But, I am guessing that what you are saying is quite true about how Churchill is viewed there. I always did kind of wonder why he was voted out of office so shortly after ww2.
With the history of ww2 Churchill is probably the main world leader that led to the defeat of Hitler and I believe that is why he is so highly regarded in places like the US.
I don't want to go off topic...but you should have said "ANZAC Forces". ....
All the armed forces involved in WW1 should never forget.
Now we have the first Terms if preliminary from The Russian Federation, Become an Independent or Neutral Country, With there own Army with No intention of joining NATO or European Union.
Do not get me wrong Phoenix, many peeps in my country worship Churchill and what he did during the second world war, we only have to look at his funeral to see that. He was lorded based on his successes, and past Victories can be forgotten as that is the way of things
Military peeps have long memories and can never forgive wasting Soldiers lives in such a brutal way. There has always been a duality in the thinking of my countrymen.
I can give you another massive duality about UK Soldiers Ex or serving. We have all seen the Loyalty to Queen and Country, we see it in film, books and other historical sources. When you ask any Soldier who has seen Combat who he fights for, the answer most none military think is.
I Fight For My Queen And Country.
Every Soldier who i have served with, when asked the same question, always give the same gesture, they point over there right or left shoulder, and say, For Him Or Her (usually him, but times change), what they mean is they fight for the Soldier next to them, and the soldier next to him/her say the same thing. In Combat this is the way it is.
Do not get me wrong, i hold no grudge for My Queen, I Love her as he has dedicated her whole life to service of the People, she works very hard and any respect she has, has been earned through long years . Civilians and Military just see things in another way, for men who are trained to fight and Kill when necessary, we respect people who Value Life and especially those who hold it uppermost in there minds even in a combat situation. Soldiers have to fight and Kill, the best leaders understand this and do all they can to bring those people home in one piece, not always possible, but the need to try to achieve this is respected most of all.
You are missing the biggest terms that are preventing the end of the war.
Putin also wants... A chunk of territory of Ukraine to become Russia and an official admission from Ukraine that Crimea belongs to Russia.
You are missing the biggest terms that are preventing the end of the war.Putin also wants... A chunk of territory of Ukraine to become Russia and an official admission from Ukraine that Crimea belongs to Russia.
I was not missing something Phoenix, Donbas even though a part of Ukraine has been (so called) under RF control under the Banner of Donetsk People's Republic or in simple terms Stolen territory since the war in 2014 or just after. Try telling that to the brave people of Mariupol .The Russian Federation already see it as theirs along with Crimea, those sections of the terms as far as Putin is concerned, just needs a Rubber Stamping to give his land grab some form of legitimatisation.
Putin's lust for power and land grabbing is what this so-called was is all about. I has nothing to do with Ukraine becoming a NATO member, though Putin would prefer it didn't.
The grab for Mariupol and surrounding districts is about economic greed, given the coastal location and industry in the region. That is what Putin wants and why thousands still in Mariupol are living in stoneage conditions and hundreds are dead... including a lot of Russian soldiers who would rather have been at home with their families and loved ones, not out there fighting a dictator's self-interest war to acquire greater wealth and power.
The Siege of Mariupol is actually intended to link up forces from Crimea , meeting his attacking Army from the north east, this then will give Putin control over the region he thought was controlled by Russian Separatist's. Putin really did think this region would fall first, well first is not 100% true, in the first two days , Elite Paratroopers were meant to take Kyiv the capitol. Putin did not count on the fighters of Mariupol giving everything they can to keep him out, that is the reason why it is the most Artillery/Rocket/Missile Hit City in the country, over 95% of the Buildings in Mariupol are showing Damage from extreme to lower levels of Bombardment destruction.
I agree to some extent about the RF forces, many of them are conscripted but as a world superpower, many will be Regular Army Units.
Almost all Professional Soldiers around the world (none Conscripts) expect to go on active service during some part of there career, at the end of the day, this is what they are trained for. War is brutal and all the Current or Ex Soldiers i have came into contact with, all say the same, they do not wish or hope for War, but accept that is what they train for. They understand fighting and Dying in a Warzone, if and when needed, It will be them who are called upon to do there job.
I was just reading that 1000's of Russian soldiers are abandoning their vehicles and weaponry and walking away, such is the frustration of the slow progress being made and an estimated 10,000 of their comrades being killed by much stiffer Ukranian resistance than was first thought. Apparently, the Ukrainians are taking over abandoned tanks, trucks and arms for their own use.
I also read that Belarus may even join the conflict militarily because Russia/Putin is not making the inroads that were initially hoped for... expected, even.
That is the reason why 5 RF Generals have already been killed. Usually Generals get nowhere near the fighting as it is there job to organise things at a secure base camp well behind the front. Those Generals frustrated by the lack of a push, have moved forward to take control, putting them in the crosshairs of Ukrainian Snipers.
The Ukrainian Army have actually gone on the offensive , taking back control of areas already taken by RF Forces.
As for reading about thousands of RF conscripts leaving there weaponry and walking away, that is some of the Pro propaganda the west would like us all to believe. There life would not be worth living if they were found to be Deserters, and would be treated very harshly back at home, more likely due to supply issues, Fuel , Water, Food etc, will be the reason for these reports, seeing the conscripts as None Active or not pushing forward.
The Ukrainian Army are capturing RF Hardware and using it against RF soldiers as they are starting to retake ground, they are taking prisoners though, and any Hardware becomes Ukrainian.
Belarus has long been a Puppet Government of The Russian Federation and will do exactly what they are told to do by Putin, they are not none combatants as they have already allowed RF Troops, Hardware etc to be allowed to attack Ukraine from the North. The Air Strikes made on Kyiv right now all originate from Belarus Airstrips, and there ground crews are working on those Military Ariel Machines, so they are already involved and that is the reason why the west is Sanctioning them too already.
As for reading about thousands of RF conscripts leaving there weaponry and walking away, that is some of the Pro propaganda the west would like us all to believe. There life would not be worth living if they were found to be Deserters, and would be treated very harshly back at home, more likely due to supply issues, Fuel , Water, Food etc, will be the reason for these reports, seeing the conscripts as None Active or not pushing forward. I don't know that it's entirely propoganda. I saw some interviews with deserter Russian troops and some were saying that they will not return home for the reasons you noted... life would be made very difficult for them. Some were saying that they will remain in Ukraine and help rebuild, offer humanitarian assistance where needed because they were disillusioned by the war, the senseless bombing and killing, and wanted to take no further part.
I don't know that it's entirely propoganda. I saw some interviews with deserter Russian troops and some were saying that they will not return home for the reasons you noted... life would be made very difficult for them. Some were saying that they will remain in Ukraine and help rebuild, offer humanitarian assistance where needed because they were disillusioned by the war, the senseless bombing and killing, and wanted to take no further part.
("As for reading about thousands of RF conscripts leaving there weaponry and walking away, that is some of the Pro propaganda the west would like us all to believe. There life would not be worth living if they were found to be Deserters, and would be treated very harshly back at home, more likely due to supply issues, Fuel , Water, Food etc, will be the reason for these reports, seeing the conscripts as None Active or not pushing forward."-) I don't know that it's entirely propoganda. I saw some interviews with deserter Russian troops and some were saying that they will not return home for the reasons you noted... life would be made very difficult for them. Some were saying that they will remain in Ukraine and help rebuild, offer humanitarian assistance where needed because they were disillusioned by the war, the senseless bombing and killing, and wanted to take no further part.
("As for reading about thousands of RF conscripts leaving there weaponry and walking away, that is some of the Pro propaganda the west would like us all to believe. There life would not be worth living if they were found to be Deserters, and would be treated very harshly back at home, more likely due to supply issues, Fuel , Water, Food etc, will be the reason for these reports, seeing the conscripts as None Active or not pushing forward."-)
("As for reading about thousands of RF conscripts leaving there weaponry and walking away, that is some of the Pro propaganda the west would like us all to believe. There life would not be worth living if they were found to be Deserters, and would be treated very harshly back at home, more likely due to supply issues, Fuel , Water, Food etc, will be the reason for these reports, seeing the conscripts as None Active or not pushing forward."-)I don't know that it's entirely propoganda. I saw some interviews with deserter Russian troops and some were saying that they will not return home for the reasons you noted... life would be made very difficult for them. Some were saying that they will remain in Ukraine and help rebuild, offer humanitarian assistance where needed because they were disillusioned by the war, the senseless bombing and killing, and wanted to take no further part.
As a Military Man who has spent time in war zones like this, you learn to take both Pro and Negative Propaganda with a pinch of salt.
I am not saying this does not happen in war, it does, every Combat Tour i have served has deserters, but will and are those deserters trusted to allow any kind of behaviour you mentioned, i am sorry but that answer is No. They are locked up as Prisoners of War as the Ukrainian people and Armed Forces would not trust them as just before there capture or desertion, they were actively helping to try and destroy Ukraine.
When i say Pro and Negative Propaganda, you must understand both sides use this to there advantage when they can, including NATO, this is just the way of things in war. I am sure you have heard the phrase "Hearts And Minds" as this tactic has been used since before this century, and will be used again, the propaganda is in the numbers reported from both sides, if you heard a 5 thousand men in the column in front of you are either dead or deserting, this can spread discontent amongst Conscripts, not professional Soldiers like our Armies in the west as these are trained to a much higher level, but to conscripts, this info will be spoken in private and would spread like a Cancer amongst badly trained conscripts who do not really want to be a soldier anyway.
A Deserting or Captured Conscript will say anything they feel will aid there assimilation into Ukrainian society, this is something the Ukrainians and any Country At War, would not believe, so POW is the only way to deal with any RF troops, they could never be trusted as they could easily become Infiltrators actively helping RF forces in there Bombing of locations etc...
We must all remember, it is not only Projectile weapons used in this or any other war. Information, Fear of something that seems like Brutality to us (Remember our troops were horrified by Japanese Using Beheading as a form of execution during WW2, but too a Japanese soldier this way of dying can save face and return honour) and many other things are legitimate weapons. You do not even need to carry out something that men fear to achieve a goal, you just have to convince them of it, and Pro and Negative Propaganda can move this forward or backwards depending which side you are on.
War is Brutal on all who take part, i have seen far too much in 5 Combat Tours to last me a lifetime, i can never forget what i have seen, what i have needed to do, things i have seen other Brutal men do, but i made those choices for many reasons and i live with those choices everyday. I tell myself, the things i needed to do saved many lives and was justified, but maybe that is just another form of Mental Pro Propaganda ensuring the last life i take, is not my own.
Innocence is the first Casualty of War, and innocents will always suffer more than anything or anyone in any Warzone.
"I am not saying this does not happen in war, it does, every Combat Tour i have served has deserters, but will and are those deserters trusted to allow any kind of behaviour you mentioned, i am sorry but that answer is No. They are locked up as Prisoners of War as the Ukrainian people and Armed Forces would not trust them as just before there capture or desertion, they were actively helping to try and destroy Ukraine."
Yeah, a few of those Russians interviewed were under Ukrainian arrest, but as they said, that was far preferable to returning home to Russia. As for when the war is "hopefully" over, they are going to remain in Ukraine to help rebuild. The thing is, most of the Russian troops either captured or deserted were conscripts, and they didn't believe they should have been there, not only because most were either untrained or poorly trained, but because the did not agree with the war or the destruction of Ukraine. Anyhow, let's hope that it is over soon and Ukraine can get back to life in peace.
Yeah, a few of those Russians interviewed were under Ukrainian arrest, but as they said, that was far preferable to returning home to Russia. As for when the war is "hopefully" over, they are going to remain in Ukraine to help rebuild.
The thing is, most of the Russian troops either captured or deserted were conscripts, and they didn't believe they should have been there, not only because most were either untrained or poorly trained, but because the did not agree with the war or the destruction of Ukraine.
Anyhow, let's hope that it is over soon and Ukraine can get back to life in peace.
Just to clarify...it's truth that is the first casualty of war....
Yeah, a few of those Russians interviewed were under Ukrainian arrest, but as they said, that was far preferable to returning home to Russia. As for when the war is "hopefully" over, they are going to remain in Ukraine to help rebuild.The thing is, most of the Russian troops either captured or deserted were conscripts, and they didn't believe they should have been there, not only because most were either untrained or poorly trained, but because the did not agree with the war or the destruction of Ukraine.Anyhow, let's hope that it is over soon and Ukraine can get back to life in peace.
Putin's Elite Troops were deployed first, Paratroopers were supposed to take the airport in Kyiv and overthrow the government in the first few days, the Ukrainian army stopped that from happening , so the first troops to die or be captured were not conscripts. That came later. Yes you are correct about the numbers being conscripts, a lot of the men used in the invasion are conscripts, Putin got a huge shock hearing his elite had failed and been killed or taken POW, now he is reluctant to commit his best, not a good strategy in any war, something he is now realising to be wrong.
Conscripts do not make for good soldiers depending on were and when, never have, never will. That is not to say all conscripts are badly trained and motivated, Millions of men were conscripted during WW2 and many made excellent Soldiers, doing very good jobs.
A Soldier does not decide if they agree with a war, orders are orders, and unless you have serious backup and with that backup you feel those orders are actually Illegal, only then should you act against those illegal orders, but you take the chance of serious repercussions, i would not be surprised if commanders have shot Conscripts as a form of example to others.
I really hope you are right Starkers about the war ending soon, Ukrainian Forces are doing well even though they are burning through there ammo and equipment very quickly, if the west can keep them supplied and keep them as a Viable defensive unit, they at least have a chance, but with Europe's Gas usage along the Russian Pipeline actually going up during the war not down, many Billions of Rubles are still funding Putin's war machine, but i too like you hope it ends quickly.
"Putin's Elite Troops were deployed first, Paratroopers were supposed to take the airport in Kyiv and overthrow the government in the first few days, the Ukrainian army stopped that from happening , so the first troops to die or be captured were not conscripts. That came later. Yes you are correct about the numbers being conscripts, a lot of the men used in the invasion are conscripts, Putin got a huge shock hearing his elite had failed and been killed or taken POW, now he is reluctant to commit his best, not a good strategy in any war, something he is now realising to be wrong."
It's sad that anybody had to die, elite troops or conscript, Ukrainian or Russian, but like you said, war is war and it's going to happen. The part that annoys, upsets me most is the number of civilian casualties, the huge number of refugees and people displaced because their homes and cities had been destroyed.
That's why I hope it ends sooner and not later.
Totally agree with you Starkers, all life is a precious thing, you may think that point of view is crackers coming from a person like me who has put himself into War Zones as a Military Contractor, but because of the things i have seen and needed to do in those places, it has just re enforced my opinion, i really am Pro Life.
Civilian casualties is also a terrible thing, my whole world changed one day in Africa when a none combatant little girl (i say none combatant as children are often used as soldiers in Africa) was left for me and my team as punishment by a extremely Brutal War Lord for hitting a Platoon of his men we found Brutalising woman and children in the village some days before.
Poland is doing a fantastic job of caring for the people who are displaced by this war. To there credit , not one single Refugee camp has been set up, this is not to say other bordering countries are not doing there part as they are, but Poland has around 85%.
Now Putin is saying they are going to concentrate on the Donbas Region, something he has wanted for so long so he can join up Crimea basically splitting the east of Ukraine.
I want it to end sooner, just like you, but my experience of war zones tells me even if Putin does control The Donbas region, the artillery, Rockets and Cruise missile attacks on other areas of Ukraine will continue, Mariupol will never surrender, i have Friends in the Georgian International Legion who are seeing this up close and personal, RF forces will have to completely Destroy Mariupol, something they are trying to actively do, The Bravery of it's Defenders and citizens has even brought a tear or two to this old war horses eye(I am Human and Bleed Red just like anyone else).
Never hoped a strangers opinion comes into effect as much as i do yours, and would happily be wrong but Siege tactics are already in place, this tactic of Siege warfare is never quick, my eyes have witnessed Sarajevo first hand and that took years.
I Live in hope you are right starkers.
Jafo,
I was not trying to use a well known phrase in my comments, after serving 5 Combat Tours in some pretty brutal places, i have seen innocents suffer the most and they always are the first, they were my words and i stand by them after being there.
Ask any Veteran who has witnessed War first hand, they will tell you the same.
My Words Jafo, and very true, every one of them.
I just read on one of our local news websites that Russia is slowly pulling back from the Ukraine capital, Kyiv, and other regions in the North. The Russians are saying that the 1st phase of the war is over and now they are concentration on Donbas.... which was the primary concern at the beginning of the war. If that was truly the case, why were so many Ukranian cities beseiged and bombed into oblivion.
To be honest, I find Russian responses to questions from the West to be suspect and laced with part truth and complete untruths. For instance, the 1st phase of the war is over so troops are 'so-say' pulling back to concentrate on Donbas. For mine the actual truth is that they were bogged down by stiff Ukrainian resistance and logistical issues.
Still, the desired result is for a Russian cease fire and total withdrawal... to pay Ukraine war reparations to help rebuild what they've destroyed. I don't know that final part will ever happen, but the, the international courts may deem they do so.
I think it was Reagan who said Verify then Agree and maybe he got it from Gorbachev.
I too am seeing the same things in the news feeds. Ukraine , it's President and the people will have to have a referendum if any territory is given to the RF. I am also getting some first hand news from mates on the ground serving as Foreign Fighters through secure means i will not go into.
Putin now needs an outro that saves face for him and his control over the RF. We have all seen how badly this whole thing has gone for Putin, so he after realising this, is of coarse saying he will pull back troops and concentrate on the Donbas Region, this is what he wanted all along to join up territory with Crimea.
Putin and his Army always resort to absolute Destruction, they dare not get bogged even further down by going into the cities, it would be a Bloodbath as the Ukrainian people will fight for every street, every house and the loss of life would be horrific.
The Russian Federation is starting to suffer due to sanctions, none of this occurred on the same scale during the previous Land grabs and was a huge shock to Putin.
Understanding War, i am afraid Putin's Army will be re supplying and digging in, i hope they pull back but will only believe this stalling tactic when i actually see it.
My Government is now shipping in NLAW and Javelin anti-tank missiles, and Starstreak anti-air missiles, the later is longer range and will hopefully allow the Ukrainian Fighters to hit the RF hard and give some protection from the Bombing.
If all members remember my earlier comments about Advisers being sent to train Ukraine in there use, this is standard practice, and as the Tech (Lethal Aid) becomes more complicated, so does the learning curve, our troops get six months training, but we are trying to condense this to get that tech onto the field sooner. Putin said , no NATO troop countries boots in Ukraine, so the Ukrainian Fighters are crossing the border to Poland were we are waiting with both the Tech and the know how in it's use.
I am sorry starkers as i can not see a time when RF forces will leave Ukraine, they can not lose face like that, especially now after they have lost so many men and high ranking Generals, they actually think Crimea and Donbas is there's to control.
We must remember most Russians are out of the loop and are fed Pro RF crap, some will know the bigger picture but with the threat of Jail will mostly stay quite. War Crimes are a different thing altogether, The UN has already put together a unit of top people to start the investigation. RF troops are Raping at will, this is a Command issue, either there commanders are allowing it or turning a Blind Eye. No man i have ever served with(even as a PMC) would Dare to even try this as i was a strong commander who would Court Marshall them on the spot, they would not be one of us if they tried this and would be treated as a criminal and would never work again as a PMC anywhere.
It will take time, but war crimes will be followed up, people will pay and i am afraid more crimes will be committed before the end.
Putin has no trust left in the western world, several times he has openly lied on record, even the UN security Council has said his explanation of events is "Complete Nonsense"
Europe and to some extent the western world will be forever changed by this Invasion, RF can never be trusted to keep there word in International affairs and rightly so. The everyday Russian citizens who played no part in this war will also suffer greatly, probably going backwards to cold war ques for food and goods as more western brands pull out and the sanctions become tighter and tighter. The mighty Russian Military have proved to be more mighty mouse than anything else, but as they have over 6 thousand Nuclear weapons , with over 1500 actually deployed and ready to go, we have to step carefully . A Megalomaniac Liar who has gone Rogue with even half those weapon systems and with his back against the wall, is a very dangerous man.
My hopes for an earlier cease fire and withdrawal have become quite pessimistic and folorn. The so-called withdrawal from Kyiv is a ploy and will not fully occur. The US and UK are saying that they're observing small troop movements but it more appears to be a regrouping of troops and equipment to mount ground attacks after the RF airforce has bombed the shit out of Kyiv and broken the spirits of those who remain.
So sad, all because of a lunatic dictator's lust for more wealth and power. I had hoped I'd never see another war after Iraq, but here it is in all it's ugliness and brutality.
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