I don’t like sounding like chicken little. Nevertheless, the sky is falling.
For those of you who don’t know me, I run one of the oldest independent software companies in the world. My specialty for the past 20 years has been in AI. It is my job to research, evaluate trends and invest accordingly to stay ahead of the curve. And I am here to tell you that the sky is falling.
It is automation. It is inevitable. It is irresistible. And if you think that automation always creates new opportunities look back to horses. Technology made them more useful too…for a time. Now it’s our turn and in this Facebook post I’m going to walk you through, in plain terms, why I think the sky is falling.
I’m not going to try to persuade you. I’m just going to put out the data. I suspect anyone reading this is intelligent enough to reach their own conclusions whether they agree with my assessment or not.
Before I begin, I want you to refer to this page: http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm This is the Bureau of Labor statistics. It’s the government’s site that tracks what people are employed in.
To summarize we Americans work primarily in these areas:
1. Factory work (8%)
2. Construction (4%)
3. Retail (10%)
4. Transportation (3%)
5. Business Services (13%)
6. Healthcare (12%)
Next, I would like to quote you this statistic: “The maximum unemployment rate during the Great Depression was 25%.”
The sum of the percentages I give above is 50%. You be the judge on what percentage of the areas I am going to discuss below will likely be out of a job in the near future.
Like I said, my day job is to evaluate technology and try to predict where it’s going to go next. And with that, I am telling you the automation revolution isn’t happening soon. It’s happening right now.
Amazon Prime
Do you use Amazon Prime? It’s pretty great right? How are they able to do it so cheaply? It’s because it’s largely automated now. Over the past few years, Amazon has been quietly laying off thousands of employees and replacing them with machines.
http://www.techrepublic.com/article/amazon-robots-and-the-near-future-rise-of-the-automated-warehouse/
Amazon currently employs over 200,000 people, most of whom will be out of a job in less than five years. Right now, you go to their website, you order something. That signals a AGV to go over and pick it up in the warehouse which then takes it over to another AGV (automated guided vehicle) that in turn takes it over to the auto packager which in turn sends it to be sorted and packaged.
I’m not talking about some future technology either. Did you get something from Amazon Prime recently? Look at the box you received. You will see an MSI code and a Code-128 code (very similar) along with a Datamatrix code (a box with graphical blotches). Right now, some of this is still handled by a person. But this will soon be completely automated.
Right now, the Code 128 code is used by UPS or Fed Ex staff (people) to load trucks and get them to you. But this is not going to last much longer. The transportation industry is already in process of being automated. You don’t hear much on this publicly because no one wants to talk about it. But this isn’t a 10 or 20 year away thing. This transformation is happening right now.
Products and goods will soon be transported to you through autonomous vehicles. I’m not talking about drones. That’ll happen too but that’s a distraction. I mean that UPS trucks and Fed Ex trucks will soon be autonomous. Loaded at the warehouse by machines and transported to you by AFVs (autonomous freight vehicles).
And even if you think “how will they get up to my doorstep” remember most shipments occur from business to business who have their own loading docks and warehouses. Moving stuff from point A to point B is a huge part of our employment.
Going…going…gone
Retail, where a lot of people now work, is going to be hit soonest, hardest and most obviously. We are familiar with self-checkouts but that’s really not that big of a deal. It’s the stocking that is going to go away and you won’t even notice. Walmart, Target, you name it, will quietly and not-so-gradually replace their stock people with machines. Read a bar code, go to the proper location in the store and place it. 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
Chain restaurants? The only reason why McDonalds and Burger King haven’t automated already is the relatively low minimum wage. But that’s going away. Kiosks will replace the order taking and the food preparation will be handled by machines. And machines in 2016, already do voice recognition better than most humans for the drive through (that’s something I never would have thought possible even 5 years ago). And people will be happy for this because it’ll be more convenient and the results more consistent. They’ll never “fuck you at the drive through” because the order will be perfect every time.
What about office jobs? They’re safe right? No. Again, I want to emphasize that I am not talking about some “20 years from now” thing. I am telling you that this automation revolution is happening as you read this. It’s not something to prepare for in the future. It’s already upon us. And with that in mind, Walmart just announced that it is cutting 7,000 office jobs.
http://fortune.com/2016/09/01/walmart-job-cuts-layoffs/
This was a week ago.
These are administrative jobs. Accounting jobs. All those jobs that involve paperwork, inventory management, producing invoices, handling payroll. Do these jobs sound familiar? They’re not going away in the future. They’re going away right now. And it’s accelerating.
Today, you walk into a Walmart and pick up a can of soup off the shelf. That soup was placed there by a person. You probably still go to a person to check it out because you have a bunch of stuff and it’s still a pain to do self-checkout. Nevertheless, everything you bought is automatically deducted from Walmart’s inventory. The acquisition of that item and its purchase doesn’t require people anymore so it was automated.
But relatively soon, every item, from food to your clothes, will have a tiny passive RFID tag in it. You’ll simply walk through a checkout and everything will be deducted automatically (for those with a NFC device like an iPhone or an Android phone). There will still be a person handling stuff for old people. But most people will naturally prefer to take their cart full of stuff through the RFID scanner and have it handled automatically.
Ironically, the service is likely to get better because they’ll probably soon have auto-baggers so you won’t even have to bag your own stuff anymore. But that’s probably around 7 (2023) years away from becoming mainstream. You’ll have RFID tagging sooner than that.
If you’re feeling stressed and want to go to the doctor, well, they’re going to be automated away too soon. And this will be a good thing for everyone. Today’s doctors will become more focused on dealing with patients’ needs while the machines handle the diagnosing and prescription writing.
You, reading this right now, when was the last time you went to the doctor not knowing what you already had? You probably just needed the prescription and had to wait. The machines, networked with each other across the world and able to sample billions of people’s anonymous data will make Dr. House look like an amateur and prescribe you with what you need vastly faster than having to wait for the doctor.
However, this won’t be good news for a lot of people in the health industry. Your doctor today with the thriving practice will be fine. He or she will save up and buy these diagnostic machines that will handle the vast majority of cases he or she currently handles. But those next generation doctors? They’re in for a rough time. Those in the medical profession can comment below and explain the problem a lot better than I can.
What about lawyers? They’re screwed. As someone who routinely gets sued (intellectual property is a mine field), I have a lot of experience with lawyers. The most expensive part, by far, is discovery. This is the part where each party sifts through the other’s sides stuff to determine what bullshit to put into their motions to convince a jury that their narrative of the case is the correct one. 99% of that time is wasted. Machines could handle that 99%.
It is unlikely that there will be such a thing as a paralegal in 20 years. They’ll go the way of the gas station attendant.
http://technoccult.net/archives/2013/10/08/report-47-of-u-s-jobs-at-risk-of-being-automated-out-of-existence/
Now, I’m not suggesting all these jobs are going to be gone in 5 years or even 20 years. Not all of them. But a lot of them. And unlike in the past, there’s no job for these people to go to. There’s no “training” for a new job because this time, the machines aren’t creating a new type of job in their wake, they are simply replacing the existing jobs without creating a new one.
We are not ready
We are not ready for this. We are oblivious now and we will remain oblivious until it’s far too late for our society to adapt carefully.
People will continue to be oblivious even as they watch their malls close down just like people shrugged when their bookstores went away.
http://time.com/money/4327632/shopping-malls-closing/
They’ll continue to be oblivious when their neighbor’s kid loses their job at the coffee shop because there’s a machine that makes the perfect Mocha Latte every single time.
They’ll still ignore it even as their sister’s husband loses his job at DHL (the world’s largest logistic company).
http://roboticsandautomationnews.com/2016/04/20/dhl-opens-supersize-logistics-centre-featuring-130-robotic-shuttles/4068/
They’ll only notice when their job at the local dentist’s office handling appointments and other office duties suddenly, without notice, disappears because Dr. Benning, such a great guy, has bought a Wavenet Office bot that can call patients to make appointments, reschedule, and handle all the tasks they previously did.
https://deepmind.com/blog/wavenet-generative-model-raw-audio/
And what about the unemployed? Think that they’ll just raise up a mob and take on the 5% of the population who owns the means of production now? Think again. The one area automation is already doing very well is security.
The new uber class (calling them rich isn’t even the right term at that stage) will be way ahead of the mob. They’ll have machines to protect their holdings, homes and families from the rabble. So those who think “they’ll have to do something for everyone else or they’ll be a revolution” think again. Don’t assume a universal basic income is a definite.
/">http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/security-robot-knightscope-/
What we do as a civilization, will define my generation. I pray we figure it out. Nothing scares me more than a future of split between the Gods and the Useless.
Further reading:
Economic Singularity
I saw this coming in the early 1970's when I briefly tried factory work making plumbers supplies. When I first started there in January 1972, there were about 150 machinists operating various lathes and other manual machinery in the machine shop, but as those older machines were replaced with more sophisticated ones that could perform more tasks more quickly and efficiently, many machinists were made redundant... read fired.
By September 1974, there were just 3 of us left, with each able to maintain/supervise several machines at once. However, we were then told that the company had relocated its manufacturing arm to an almost fully automated factory in South Korea, thus I became unemployed at one of the worst times in Australia to find gainful employment, especially in manufacturing. Just as my former company had done, so many others relocated offshore and skilled manufacturing jobs became a thing of the past.
The thing is, the trend never stopped, and over the years I've seen jobs in all sectors disappear as the corporate big-wheels found ways to 'do it' cheaper, either with computers or automation or both. So no, this isn't a new thing in the 2000's. It's just that technology is so much more advanced and sophisticated, and thus even more capable of swallowing up human involvement at an ever faster rate.
I do have to disagree with there being "no blood in the streets".
There's an old saying that has something to do with the Devil making use of idle hands, and mass unemployment will create so many, many idle hands with little or nothing constructive to do. To further compound this situation, the number of have-nots will multiply, with the gap between the haves and the growing number of have-nots ever widening. Now history tells us this is a recipe for discontent, civil unrest and even anarchy. History also tells us that the haves and powers-that-be will not tolerate this behaviour and will quash it with force when and where it be deemed necessary.
And to think, with all this AI and robotics...automation, the servants of the haves quashing this human uprising are likely to be machines. Terminator anyone? And will there be some kind of safeguards, a concience to prevent wholesale bloodshed, or will killing be indiscriminate? Will the machines see themselves as superior and even turn on their masters?
Yeah, I know, there'll be those of you who will disagree with this, but it's not as far fetched as you think. It has been suggested that the disenchanted unemployed will become addicted to virtual porn and/or games. Maybe... if they can afford it, that is. Even if the porn and games are made free, the technology on which to view/play it won't be, thus leaving the have-nots with too much idle time on their hands... and we know what the Devil does with those, right?
You know what will happen if there is no enough economic stability due to unemployment. Emigration.
Emigration of workers to places they can find work in their field or similar field that has better benefits then being unemployed in their current countries. Or that takes less effort then re-specializing in their own countries to get the job position.
This already happened for centuries and still happens. Why do you think people risked their lives to get to America, instead of staying in their developed European counties. Or why there was push to the "wild" west in USA at later time?
Since economy and technology trends are never evenly distributed over world, there will always be redistribution of work force where it is still needed.
That may have been true a quarter of a century ago, but technology is moving/growing at an ever faster rate, and those countries that lag behind [technologically speaking] are generally over-populated and have little trouble filling jobs requiring a human hand.
For all those thinking that this time will be no different that other major technological shifts, let me illustrate why you are probably wrong, why this time more jobs will be lost than created.
To produce a good or service you need three basic inputs: 1) resources, 2) energy, and 3) control (aka intelligence). With a few minor exceptions (such as donating blood), humans don't directly provide resources. In ancient times, humans provided nearly 100% of the energy and control. We started to harness animals and a few simple machines to provide some of the energy and a small bit of control. With the steam engine and the industrial revolution machines started providing most and eventually nearly all of the energy. While some intelligence could be built in to the machines, human control was still very much in demand. With AI levels of automation we're closing in on machines being able to provide 100% of both energy and control -- what's left for humans to do when we get there?
There is *possibly* one area left to humans, and that is creativity. But even there AI may supersede us and even if it doesn't I seriously doubt all 7 billion of us can continually create *new* ideas/content for the rest to consume.
Its different this time around, any new job created by the tech can be filled by AI.
That's what I have been saying. Tech has become so sophisticated and adaptable that human input will become a thing of the past... sooner, not later. And where it is suggested that people will migrate to where the work is, what 1st world person in their right mind is going to migrate to a 3rd world country that already has an abundance of unskilled and semi-skilled workers who cannot find full-time, permanent work.
Yes, there are and will be 3rd world countries who lag behind those in the 1st world, but with tech evolving at an ever increasing pace, not to mention air travel, the internet and TV making the world smaller, those countries won't be behind for too long... for the elites and the powers-that-be, that is.
Furthermore, there's talk of there being a guaranteed basic wage being paid to all non-working people: well, that is not going to solve anything... really! First off, the haves and powers-that-be will only pay the lowest minimum possible, because it is easier to control the masses when their spending power is practically zilch. This means that millions will be living just on or below the poverty line.
Sadly, the haves won't care about the homeless, cold and starving people, and governments won't be able to help because automation/robotics means there's fewer taxes being collected [and the haves will continue to avoid paying their due taxes], and thus, government is already stretched to capacity just paying a guaranteed basic wage.
There will be two outcomes from this: One, millions will die of starvation, the cold or heat exhaustion, thus freeing up funds for 'more important' matters: Two, people will revolt and fight for better conditions for their families. However, this will be met with strong opposition and millions will die. In other words "send in the Terminators".
Either way, the haves maintain control and do away with the superfluous and redundant, thus freeing up resources [food production, etc] for 'more important' matters. It won't matter to the haves that they've shrunk the market by killing off millions of potential consumers, because that's the way greed works... amassing wealth at any cost.
So what happens when the haves have essentially wiped out the market and have only themselves as customers? Well that's when they will start fighting amongst themselves... and I don't mean hostile take-overs or boardroom theatrics. No, they'll send in the Terminators... 'til they're all that's left
Oh, and I don't need statistics or percentages to arrive at my conclusion. So where is my proof? History and human nature! That's my proof... and all the proof I need.
Like where in history did the haves ever care about the homeless and starving? That's right, they didn't. So long as their wealth kept amassing it didn't matter who died or how many. It is happening now but on a much grander scale. I mean, look at the world's top 1%, with more wealth than half the population of the entire planet, yet starvation disease and famine is rife throughout the 3rd world. No, the wealthy are not going to help.
Another lesson from history... how the wealthiest and most extravagent empires self-imploded because of greed and excesses. Unfortunately, the human race is not known for learning from its mistakes, with power and greed the key components in bringing down even the strongest empires... Rome anybody.
The same will happen again, and not too far off in the future, sadly. Mankind and civilisation took 2 billion years to evolve, but mankind will wipe it all out in less than 10. Most of us probably won't be around to see the beginning of the end, but it will be swift and catastrophic when the haves discover there's nothing left to get... no more weath, no more power.
Will there be anyone left?
Yes, there will be enclaves of people hidden away in caves or some such refuge, and they will procreate and build new civilisations... to start the whole rotten process over again, having not learned a damned thing from history yet again.
But they may be still missing workers requiring specific set of skills.
This reminds me "brain farming" that some companies do. Bunch of unskilled workers doing menial tasks that are difficult for AI to do and easy for human brain. Like pattern recognition, captcha solving etc...
Such a dismissive and simplistic way of thinking, not really in keeping with the standard of the rest of the discussion IMO.
You are obviously touching on an outlook that many may shun, in spite of your diligence and accuracy, it's a very informative look at what could be our world wide economic future. Wincustomize is a great forum, I hope you reach many others beyond the scope of what you've written hear. Great job Frogboy
I debate this topic all the time, it certainly is a fascinating one. The OP was a great read but I'm going to have to disagree with some of the conclusions in this thread.
There is no doubt that the economy is going through a huge transition that will reshape it and lead to disruption and joblessness in the short term. This could be very bad, but it won't be the end of everything or require a basic income. This newest round of automation is not any different than previous ones. The industrial revolution completely reshaped the economy and how people lived their lives. The grand majority of people in the West used to live on farms. The transition from that lifestyle and the migration to cities and factories was massively disruptive and incredibly damaging to most people's lives. It was not however the end of the free market, capitalism, or the world. Quite the opposite, really. Also, the loss of farm jobs didn't end up creating oppressive agricultural monopolies. The automation of manufacturing will not go that way either.
Yes, jobs are disappearing, but it is simply the nature of the economy that new ones are also appearing at the same time. People aren't horses, just like they aren't buggy whips or any other tool. I myself work in a job that didn't used to really exist even ten years ago. I know many people in similar fields. Also, if prices drop due to automation we could see reductions in working hours that allow more people to be employed. The free market adjusts. That is what it does. It isn't always nice about it and it can be cruel when the wheel starts turning but it always reaches equilibrium in the end.
A lot of people will find their skill set obsolete and struggle. Some difficult times are ahead, but I'm more worried about the political side. When people bring up basic income as some sort of remedy they almost never discuss the politics involved. A basic income leads to socialism, period. Once you give government complete control over everyone's wages then people will simply vote themselves rich. Taxes will rise and governments will start confiscating property. Ask Venezuela how great that works. Any country that tries to super tax the rich to institute massive social programs will suffer from capital flight, economic malaise, government corruption, and eventually state sponsored oppression and collapse. That will be far worse than the actual economic change itself.
Society will have to work very hard to make sure that this coming transition hurts as few people as possible, including the use of social programs and retraining. However, basic income won't work as a solution. When you put someone on basic income you are basically saying they are completely valueless to society, like people who have been priced out of the market due to minimum wage hikes. You're not helping these people. You're simply taxing the them out of the marketplace and sticking them on welfare. I know people say that basic income will give people a chance to teach themselves and grow, but that is bullshit. It stands in complete contradiction to actual human experience. People have to work and feel valued. They can't just sit around and teach themselves. People also need motivation that comes from the struggle to survive. You can't take that away and expect everyone to flourish and contribute. This entire scheme depends on massive state control of everything, and that's why it can't work.
The thing about Star Trek is that they never get into their economic system at all, because it doesn't make sense. Everyone waiting for the advent of Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism are going to be very disappointed or horrified by their wish.
Couple things I can add to the mix:
1) Even soldiers can be automated. Fight with drones. Now we're talking about people not dying. Oppressed, yes. Dying in battle, no.
2). Um...don't self-driving cars make terrorism very EASY?? You don't even need explosives. All you have to do is drive 100kph on the sidewalk.
Learn to love the robots now . . while they still think you mean it.https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-07/udt-its072319.php
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