Hi Mohawk and all,
I wrote something similar in a post before but I want to address it on its own. As it stands resource prices can swing wildly and extremely so for mine able resources like water iron aluminum silicon and carbon. Every resource in the game changes in price the same given that the same quantity of resources are traded and this doesn't at all seem realistic because the price mobility is out of proportion compared to the base production value of the resources. The main ~6 resources (power included) should in my opinion move considerably slower (like 2x for example) in price in response traded volumes of them.
I propose that resources that are produced at a base rate of 1/s or above have 2x less price mobility than resources that are produced at a base rate of 0.5/s and those resouces 2x less than resources produced at the rate of 0.25/s (electronics).
Additionally I believe all resources should have their price mobility decreased in proportion to the number of players in game because as it stands right now price fluctuatians in 8p games are very strong just because the market dynamics are exactly the same even though there are 8 players whereas the market in 1v1 is relatively stale.
I'd appreciate other peoples thoughts on this.
That is what I'm trying to say coffee, that prices should be equally stable across 2p through to 8p games.
It seems logical to me that multiple hacker arrays should only hack one resource at a time. So you can hack glass and steel at the same time, but you can't hack steel twice at the same time. I didn't even assume it was possible to double hack a specific resource until I watched a youtube video of a guy doing it in multiplayer. Sure enough, I did it to the AI, with huge affect. Talk about snowballing. He set a double shortage on steel and put out 8 steel mills. When done, put out 8 glass mills and purchased extra glass with cash on hand to really snowball. A couple more times to a million.I'll lay an alternative path to controlling the situation out there. Resource prices are capped at the offworld price plus some% to simulate the colony being able to buy from the offworld.
I'm not sure what the solution is but I can say for certain that after having discovered this trick the game lost all momentum for me because i) it's very easy to pull off and ii) it's actually fairly tricky for someone else to stop you from doing it because when you sink 100K+ into the resource you're about to win with you push the price of that resource up so high, so quickly, that everyone else misses the boat and can't get even so much as a finger into the very juicy pie that you're about to gobble up.
Sort of related to previous stockpile suggestions.
I think it would be quite effective to introduce an abstract value that essentially represents the markets stockpile, but can go into the negative. The idea would be that the market would have a 'desired stockpile' amount for each commodity, whenever the stockpile in the market is below that amount the price would be high, if it is above prices would be lower. The desired stockpile number would rise for a commodity when the actual amount in the market drops below zero, and lower when the amount in the market is over zero.
As a result of this if there is a large run on, lets say water, and players are buying at a much higher rate than they are selling, so the market stockpile goes negative, and stays there; the desired stockpile may raise from 1000 to about 10,000. The price of the water would remain high until the actual stockpile gets over the desired stockpile. In cases of larger runs on the market where the stockpile stays in negative numbers for longer the desired stockpile would go to a higher number, essentially increasing the amount of resources it takes to lower the price.
This would effectively make the market naturally stabilise to the volume of transactions, without requiring the number of players to be taken into account.
I don't think I have a problem with this idea in the abstract, but my problem, which I suspect I have not expressed particularly well, is that I just don't see how this is possible. An 8-player game does not generate literally 4 times the demand for any given good when compared to a 2-player game. For instance, a 2-player game with a pair of Expansive HQs will generate (roughly) the same demand for food that an 8-player game with 2 Expansive HQs and 6 Robotic HQs will. Or consider demand for carbon in a game with many vs few Scavenger HQs.
While I have no objections to dampening the extreme swings that can occur with a large number of players participating in the market for a given good (late game electronics, for instance; or chemicals in a game with multiple players with patent and engineering labs), the market for a given good does not actually scale directly with number of players. This means that trying to provide some sort of fixed modifier to market effects may smooth out the impact of all 8 players participating in the market for a good, but it would also artificially stabilize prices on goods that not all players are participating in the market for. Suddenly an early patent lab is incredibly powerful because the price of chemicals will go up more slowly in your 8 player game even if you are the only person in the market for them just because it's an 8 player game.
Basically: I can't think of a clean solution to the "problem" of high-volatility in high-activity markets that doesn't do more damage by reducing volatility in low-activity markets to unacceptably low levels. Personally, I prefer a game with too much volatility over a game with too little volatility. Obviously, we should see if we can find a way to have "just enough" volatility, but I really don't like any proposed solution that makes things too stable.
That may be the case in some games but not on average. On average in 8p games there will be very closely 4x more demand for resources than in 2p games. What company people pick only affects on which goods the most demand is made. Lop sided games ar the exception not the rule.
I don't think it makes gameplay sense for the game to have extremely different market stability between 2p games and 8p games.
I also suggested to make higher volume goods (Water, iron, aluminium, carbon, silicon and power) to be 2x or even 4x more stable compared to other goods because these resources can be easily mass produced.
I think we can take current state of price mobiity to be the default position for 4p games, and make prices 2x more mobile for 2p games, and 2x less mobile for 8p games. Additionally, the prices of high volume resources (ie. mineables) become 2x less mobile whereas everything else stays the same.
Seems to me the best solution is simply to model market throughput in somehow; that way the larger a market for something is the more it would take to cause large price shifts. The market could still be volatile, but only when someone buys or sells more that usual (for that match).
I'd like to see price volatility itself be a variable that can be predicted (or, under time pressure, roughly estimated) by a player who is paying attention to the relevant factors. So that instead of saying "A 2p game will have slowly-varying prices and an 8p game will have wildly-swinging prices", we'd be able to assess the price volatility of individual resources at specific times and circumstances.
Consider this as a simple example:
Price volatility is dependent on trade volume. Heavily-traded resources are stable, thinly-traded resources are volatile. Recent volume is weighted more heavily than past volume. (This is basically what Nuclear_Wessels has suggested, although the mechanism may be a little different.)
Here's how that would play out:
If demand outstrips supply, the price rises, and vice versa, just like normal. But now "spikiness" matters. As long as demand and production stay close to each other, the price will smoothly rise (if it's being underproduced or demand is rising) and smoothly fall (if it's being overproduced or demand is falling). You can make a handsome profit by shifting into a high-priced industry and know that the high price will be sustainable for long enough to pay off your initial investment. But if there's a sharp swing in demand, or supply - or if someone starts dumping a big stockpile, or buying a big stockpile, then the price can shift rapidly, which invites opportunities for huge windfalls (if you time it right and are on the right side of the trade) and huge disasters (if you time it wrong or are on the wrong side of the trade).
The market that we have now kind of works like that, except that price stability depends on there being roughly equal supply and demand. Higher balanced trade volumes are more price-stable than lower balanced trade volumes, but imbalanced trade is the opposite - higher volumes in a rising (or falling) market mean a faster rise (or fall), lower volumes mean a slower rise or fall. This makes prices very chaotic, which in turn makes it hard to predict future profitable opportunities, and hard to capitalize on them when they appear.
Now, to some degree you want that to be hard. That's where the gameplay is. People who are better at that kind of prediction should have an edge in the game. But there's a line between "hard to predict" and "impossible to predict", and I think the chaos from the current pricing mechanism is on the wrong side of that line. The game is complicated enough that even if the price mechanism lends itself towards relatively easy predictions, people's brains will still be so taxed just keeping up with everything going on that the game won't lose its competitiveness.
The game right now is fairly predictable (save for random shortages / surpluses). Look around the map to see how many triangles and diamonds are producing (collections of 3+ structures) goods and you can know what is going to be cheap and what is not because people almost universally sell what they overproduce. Collections of 1-2 structures need not be considered because they are horribly inefficient. Life support and everything is going to rise in price due to demand from HQs and the colony, until player production and player made shortages and surpluses catch up.
I would argue that the prices are extremely immobile. If the prices were more mobile then we would not have the standard build of aluminum+steel through the first upgrade and add glass+power through the second. If prices were more mobile and no one sold food then anyone who did not produce food through the first 5 mins of the game would be deeply in debt.
As it currently stands the prices are so inflexible that is it suicidal to produce only basic resources and use cash to upgrade.
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