N/A
I did rand(1,165) 180 times in Excel. I then copied the values to a different part of the spreadsheet (so they don't keep recalculating) and sorted. Based on eyeballing, results are as follows:
90 came up six times
59 came up five times
52 came up four times
69 came up four times
81 came up four times
82 came up four times
143 came up four times
54 came up three times
106 came up three times
115 came up three times
141 came up three times
156 came up three times
Getting an "evenly distributed" result when generating random numbers is actually fairly unlikely. Getting some clusters is normal. My test was even more clustered than yours. Getting the same thing five or six times is fairly unusual but will happen occasionally. Getting the same thing three or four times is normal. The only solutions I can see (assuming you actually think it's a problem) are:
a: add more items
or b: make a "no duplicate drops" world option.
Sure, data is good, but as far as I can see the data shows that there's no problem with the random number generator. The problem is that people assume if you get a lot of an item that's not random, which is simply not the case.
I agree that the random number generator may be working fine given the fairly small pool of available items and the fact that much like the birthday example it is statistically much easier to get a duplicate of any item rather than duplicates of one pre-determined item (however, it may also be broken because on a moderate proportion of games I've had 3 or 4 of the same item after picking up less than 10 items, I don't know exactly what the available pool looks like but it needs to be fairly small for this to happen moderately frequently).
However what is more important is how the game feels. It feels like the random number generator is broken because I like plenty of others keep collecting multiple copies of the same item. This both feels wrong and is un-fun. The game would feel better and be more fun if this was fixed, either by significantly increasing the item pool (probably a time consuming solution), implementing a system which reduces the chance of giving already found items (much like the iTunes semi-random shuffle that others mentioned) or by fixing the random number generator (if indeed something is wrong with it).
I'm a sports stathead from way back, and one of the anecdotes that is often mentioned when a question like "momentum" or "the hot hand" comes up is the chestnut about the statistics professor who would divide his class in half (then leave the room) - one half would generate a sequence of truly random numbers by rolling dice, the other would generate what they thought such a sequence would look like. Both sides would then write their sequence on the blackboard. When he came back, he could always tell which half was which. The real random patterns were much streakier and spikier. Our brains naturally smooth out distributions.
Note: not necessarily just an argument from anecdote - it's basically a "humanizing" of a lot of studies that have determined the same thing.
TL;DR - The RNG is probably pretty random, and if 30,000 people are playing a game, a 1 in a million chance will happen every year.
I think something's wrong with your stats as you are mixing up common items (the gray ones) and uncommon items (the yellow ones) and also the rare ones (orange). The pool of common items is much smaller (about 74 or such) but should account for the majority of drops which can explain some repeats.
On the other hand, you get less uncommon items per game and they draw from a much larger pool of items (about 124 base and 165 for you with mods and DLC which sounds about right). I don't know how many uncommon drops you had what with the custom stuff but I see you found 6 uncommon items three times: Staff of the Furnace, Ignys Shortbow, Mirror Shield, Amulet of Flames, Amulet of Warding and Band Of Agility. This is pretty much a constant and it's weird.
Then there is the impossible stuff such as getting the same item three times in a row, even if its a common one. In my current game it was a Tear of Cyndrum.
Why not have an opt-in system where people who want to can have (I guess non-modded games only) a way where Stardock can look at the randomizer algorithm.
Lairs and goodie huts are preset to hand a specific type of item.
- Weak/average monster lairs and goodie huts with a green chest --> common items
- Strong monster lairs and goodie huts with a blue chest --> uncommon items
- The strongest of monster lairs (e.g. Obsidian Golem) and some monsters (Dragons) --> rare items
I have noticed some very odd behavior along the lines of the original poster too. I notice I tend to get items that I'm guessing are around the same random number sample. For example, in games where I find bows as loot, I tend to find a LOT of bows.
Yep, I think I've played enough at this point to know there is indeed an issue. In games where I get the cursed bell, I get like 5 cursed bells as loot. In games where I find a bow as a loot item early, all of the sudden I find bows all over the place. Other games I won't ever find a bow. This needs to be looked at.
I have the same impression as the OP. Almost every game sees several repeats of the same item. (I hate rusty vambraces, btw. Really? That's notable treasure?) A couple of quick thoughts:
(1) It could be the way that SD seeds the RNG--do they reseed it with every call, or prepopulate a table of randoms to access? Maybe they could try something different.
(2) It could be (as suggested) that the pool of items is too small. My personal solution for that would be a tool similar to Master of Magic's "itemmake", which allowed you to access any loot model in the game and design a new loot item by giving it X number of properties. Then it writes that item to the .xml loot file. The number and type of properties were weighted, so the more powerful the item, the more powerful the lair/quest needed to find it. I would handily pay for DLC that let me do this. Itemmake was one of the best little secrets of MoM. I know you can do this already by editing the .xml tables, but having a simple GUI for hopping through the models and picking properties would be nice.
(3) Adopt a diablo/torchlight/borderlands approach to loot, with a base item and 1-3 prefixes and suffixes depending on where/how it was found. I just started a new game and the first 3 green huts I hit all gave me an "Assassin's Hood". Lame. But not so bad if I found three hoods with different properties (Assasin's Hood, Hood of the Earth, and General's Hood of Leadership, for example). Since there's little difference in in-game appearance (except for flaming weapons, etc), I'm not sure why this wouldn't be a feasible approach to help the game stay fresh (other than the work involved, obviously).
Anyway, that's my $.02. If they will do that and give me the option to close my borders so other players can't cross without permission (instead of forcing me to jump into the diplomacy screen *every time* they try to send their pioneers across), I would be a very happy camper.
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