What happened to Global Warming?
When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.
Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in
I'd like some global warming back...
Oh look, another appeal to authority...
It's pointless, I've done it before after all, but I'm waiting on a response for work and have nothing better to do.
Lets just pretend these aren't pseudo government agencies who depend on funding by people trying to get control of every facet of the economy for purposes of their own greed. Lets also pretend that there really is near unanimous support amongst scientists that the planet has been warming, and that people are causing some of it.
If I were asked "Has the planet been warming over the last couple centuries, and do humans have anything to do with it?" I would say yes.
Every national academy of science agreeing with me doesn't make CO2 the leading factor in a precipitous climate change that will result in doom and gloom. Urban island heat effects have an impact on our global temperature, it's positive. Deforestation has an impact on our global temperature, it's positive. Dust particulates in the air from manufacturing settling on ice and making it dirty has an impact on our global temperature, it's positive.
CO2 might have a positive impact as well, but since none of the data actually shows any significant trends beyond those that came before the industrial era, it's about as likely a significant contribution as the hair on my ass is. There's a lot of it, sure, but it doesn't really accomplish much in the big picture.
The support for AGW is overblown, based on surveys where they ask questions similar to the one above, of people who have far less information than I do. If you send Bob, from Rhode Island, a data set from GISS showing temperatures are going up, and an explanation from NASA explaining why CO2 is causing it, then ask bob if he thinks CO2 might be contributing to the rise in temperature, odds are Bob is just going to say yes. Bob isn't going to spend a thousand hours studying the problem to determine if the information he was sent is a load of bullshit to prop up receding funding, or the personal agenda of the radical environmentalist running the division. A "scientist" is just Bob with a B.S. in BS.
The vast quantities of Earth science majors do not study climate science, they are gainfully employed doing things that matter, like finding oil, predicting the weather next week, or teaching a bunch of earth conscious morons to go into the same dead end field they picked themselves, because shit, all they could get with their climatology degree was a teaching job! They didn't make a job of it when they were receiving their training, and they don't make a job of it in their career.
The information you're supposing they actually know all about and can give an expert opinion on, making what some douche bag convention statement says matter, is less relevant to them than who's running the government, and odds are they can't even recognize anyone beyond the President.
You don't even understand how that fallacy works.
The appeal to authority fallacy happens when you claim something is correct because a source of authority agrees with it. That is not the form of argument that I am using.
I am arguing that I am correct because the data agree with me. The fact that the authorities agree with me is not the reason that I am claiming that I am correct - it is just further support that my interpretation of the data is correct or at least not idiosyncratic.
Please understand how fallacies work before you try and use them. Just because somebody cites an authority at some point in an argument doesn't mean that they are using an appeal to authority fallacy. After all, scientists frequently cite sources of authority in their work and that isn't all a fallacy. It's also considered exceptionally good practice to cite such sources in scientific skepticism.
And there's the conspiracy theory...
Membership in the National Academy of Science is on the highest honors that a US scientist can receive. The NAS has had a few hundred Nobel Prize winners on it. But yeah, sure, its just a bunch of people trying to take over the economy.
You don't know me, but I'm not the kind of guy who just believes what I'm told or disbelieves what experts tell me. Logic and evidence are important to me. Here's what I see: the hottest year on record was 1998. Since then global temps have leveled off despite all predictions by those Academies of Science you mentioned, and there are dozens of theories that attempt to explain it. Then the scientists devise new computer models on those theories tweaking numbers until they end up with the desired results. Then they claim that their new results are correct, while neglecting to admit their old theories were incorrect because that would hurt their credibility, and round and round we go.
This here is a new tactic, well new to science anyway; this has always been the case in politics: Oops, our predictions didn't pan out, but let's cook the books so it looks like they did. I would love for the science on this subject to get settled, one way or the other. But the pro-global warming side is repeatedly getting it wrong and hurting their credibility by standing their ground and, worse, conducting sketchy science. If this is really about temperatures, let scientists do real science and report the results fairly. Until then, I'm not going to be a sheep caught up in the hysteria.
When people say "the science is settled" or "there is concensus", it should be exceedingly simple to show the evidence and stand up strong in debate. But they don't. I'm not skeptical because I'm hard-headed. I'm skeptical because there there are good counter arguments, and also because it's hard to trust people who stand to make boat-loads of money by selling you their goods.
I knew it was pointless, he can't even admit to making an appeal to authority.
Who said anything about the members? The NAS is a political body, people are elected. The members have little to do with it's positions on any given subject, the NRC does most of the leg work, and does not work within the membership roles to begin with. Even if it were, it's not the scientists that are taking over the economy, they'd be the ones getting paid to do studies by the people taking over the economy. Considering they haven't actually put out any information as to what their members think in the first place, I expect they haven't asked in the first place. The APS has been taking shit since 2007 when they claimed support of it as incontrovertible without asking theirs.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303480304579578462813553136
Edit: Obama is a Nobel Prize winner too, for peace of all things. Try not to put much weight on it, you might break it.
Eh? 2014 (last year) was the hottest year on record by a huge range of measures. E.g.:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201412
or
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20150116/
That's both NASA and NOAA making the announcement. So the premise for your argument does not seem to be supported by logic or evidence.
And as my previous links clearly showed, temps have not leveled off - they have continued to rise as predicted.
Claims that the data don't match up with the models is also fairly odd. For example, see this:
http://web.archive.org/web/20100322194954/http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/01/13/models-2/
It also contains link to a Climate Explorer where you can mess around with specific models if you want. But the basic point is that the models have actually done a pretty good job of predicting current trends.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201412http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201412
If you claim that Nobel Prizes aren't a big deal in the science, you don't have any clue of what you are talking about.
The Nobel Peace Prize is granted by a committee appointed by the Norweigan Parliament. It is reasonable to claim that it is fairly political. Things like the Nobel Prize in Physics are appointed by a completely different group - its an independent, non-governmental academy of scientists. And its a really really big deal for scientists. To say otherwise is just nonsense.
Yeah, its those people on the National Academy of Science getting paid to take over the economy. Oh wait, but they don't even get paid to be on the NAS, its pro bono. But don't let facts stop the conspiracy.
Setting aside the fact that you just linked to the NOAA which just recently tweaked temperature numbers thus hurting its credibility to make it look like there was more warming, let's assume we are actually warming.
1) So what?
2) What now?
Give me answers that don't suck and you have earned my respect.
I love how Global Warming turned into "Climate Change". You all did notice that right? That's because the "Global Warming" models all fell apart long term. Personally, I blame Al Gore...lol. It wouldn't surprise me if somewhere behind the scenes there's pocket books filling the coffers of scientists to say what they're being paid to say, especially when there's a lot of climatologists now saying we could be looking at another "mini-ice age" like we experienced during the medieval period. Don't think it's possible for scientists to be paid to talk? Well, remember back in the day when all those Professional Doctors were paid to say things like "There's no definitive proof smoking leads to cancer." by big tobacco companies? All those Doctors had professional reputations to maintain but that didn't stop them from being bought and paid for.Now of course "climate change" is happening and that can't be argued. Personally though I put more stock in those who are really "in the know" not telling the entire world what may or may not happen. You can't completely discount a lack of professional integrity however. Doing so would make you both naïve and gullible enough to believe whatever you're told in the future by any quasi-authoritative and reputable source. Definitely don't buy into conspiracies either, but know the difference between a "conspiracy theory" and a "conspiracy fact". A conspiracy fact is something that started as a conspiracy theory but later came out to be true and factual, like the Gulf of Tonkin incident that ultimately got us into Vietnam. Go ahead, go look it up, I'll wait..See that? Did you learn anything? The wiki on it is indeed accurate. One of the "attacks" never happened as admitted by former Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara.You need to understand how propaganda works and is Actually Used, and also how Misinformation works and is Actually Used. I my-self have fact checked CNN on some things as I've watched them on the news and caught them giving flat out false information while having sources on they were looking to discredit be the ones actually giving the real facts that I found as I looked up official sources.I'm by no means a conspiracy nut, but I do like "Conspirafacts". Also, if you truly understand how psychological warfare works you know what to look for as well. During the Gulf War CNN was busted doing a false broadcast that was supposed to be from a roof-top in Iraq. Turns out they were on a roof-top in Miami.Bottom line. Don't discount information by being biased towards it's source. Don't believe everything you hear or read just because it's from a source you like, and disbelieve everything you see or hear because it's from a source you don't like. Don't "gaslight" yourself. Also, yes, gaslighting is a real thing. Psychology admits and uses it, and so does corporate advertising and marketing, and so does the news on TV. The truth of things doesn't always come out of the mouth you want to hear it from.
Even if there isn't dirty money involved, climatologists have to say there is something happening simply out of self-preservation. If the climate wasn't really trending anywhere, who would fund their research? How would they get paid? How could they stay climatologists? This amount of money is nothing compared to what politicians and their friends would make through "climate exchanges", if they can push through cap-and-trade. It's a racket, and I'm sorry but I don't support such things.
Note: many of the front-men for the global warming hysteria own beach-front property. It calls into question whether they truly believe in ice-shelf tsunamis and rising sea levels.
Definitely don't buy into conspiracies either, but know the difference between a "conspiracy theory" and a "conspiracy fact". A conspiracy fact is something that started as a conspiracy theory but later came out to be true and factual, like the Gulf of Tonkin incident that ultimately got us into Vietnam. Go ahead, go look it up, I'll wait..
Another example is radical Islam's goal to form a Caliphate. When at first folks were talking about it, they were labeled conspiracy theorists. Only in the last couple years when they started taking them at their word did the general media finally come around. No apologies were given.
Ah yes, the science doesn't agree with you, so its back to conspiracy theories.Every national academy of science in the first world disagrees with you, so they must be part of a conspiracy! NOAA data published in the most prestigious journal in all of science doesn't agree with you, so its a conspiracy!
Yes, the entire global warming thig IS a conspiracy of the highest order. Money is to be made from it and corporations jumped on the bandwagon to take more of your money and mine.
As for the 'fiddling with data' thing, that again is crap. So what you're saying, then, is that you take the average worldwide temerature from 1901 to 1910, which for argument sake was 26c, and call it 21c to make modern readings look more outrageous and alarming. No, data should only be fiddled with when it is conclusively proven to be wrong/incorrect..... and ONLY then. If the temperature in London is proven to have reached 25c on 22.06.1901, you can't fiddle with the data and say it was only 22c to make global warming/climate change appear more credible. Basaically, that is what the alternative science is saying, that data has been falsified to support a completely flawed theory. Frankly, I believe the alternative is indeed quite correct.... that those with vested interests are using scare tactics in order to lead us up the garden path.
Oh, BTW, politicians tell bullshit and bank robbers rob banks for a living, but that don't make it right.
You spend time explaining why the Nobel prize is a big deal following an obvious wise crack, and yet it's not an appeal to authority when you simply say they're supposed to fudge the data because, and "every national academy" agrees with you...
OMG, was I actually wrong? Do the scientists doing research not get paid?
http://sites.nationalacademies.org/deps/deps_037300
Nope. It's just the committees that are pro-bono dude, the research is all funded and it's rarely done in house. In the case of climate change, all they did was look at the same government funded shit everyone else is. Strangely enough, they came up with the same conclusion as the people that edit the data did, who'd a thunk...
Even if there isn't dirty money involved, climatologists have to say there is something happening simply out of self-preservation. If the climate wasn't really trending anywhere, who would fund their research? How would they get paid?
This has got to be the most hilarious thing I have read in a long time. OMG, I never knew the science of Climatology only sprang up in the last 20 years. I guess those 19 century books I read a while back debating the causes of the Ice Ages were all fakes! How are Chemists, Statisticians and Theoretical Physicists getting paid seeing as they don't have the big climate change scam to shovel money into their pockets?? It's a mystery worthy of Scooby Doo, it is! That's just pathetic dude."Yes, the entire global warming thig IS a conspiracy of the highest order. Money is to be made from it and corporations jumped on the bandwagon to take more of your money and mine."Yeah, look at the way the companies leaped on the "smoking is killing you" bandwagon. Look who else has money, yes the the oil companies are secretly making money on the reasearch that shows they are killing the planet so they have funded the entire Clobal Climate change scam!! Look at who else has money... Yes the MILITARY!! The arms manufacturers desperately need the Climate change hoaxs to exist so they are funding all the scientists... for some reason... oh we havent figured it out yet but they know its true!BIG MEAT!! They are making money off the Scam!! IT's OBVIOUS, and if yhou cant see it I'm not going to draw you diagrams!!Chemical Companies! WHY CAN'T YOU SEE WHY THEY ARE FUNDING THE SCAM?? THEY WOULD HAVE THEIR OPERATIONS TO CUT TO CUT DOWN ON CO2 and they desperately want to have massive operating losses!!BIG COAL!! Can't you see how reanuables would be a godsend for Big coal? No wonder they are funding the scam!Seriously if you actually believe that shit about how all the companies on earth are funding this shit then you need to read some books and get off the internet for a while.Also heres a little factoid for the Rush Lovers out there. One of the fastast growing production capabilities in the world when it comes to win power happens to be in... Texas. George W Bush signed the funding order for 15 years of Building wind energy plants when he was Governer of TEXAS, they finished the project in 12 and they are continuing to expand it. And they aren't doing it for the good of their health, they are doing it because its economical and saves money. If you don't believe me check it out. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Texas
So the same people who are out there bitching at Obama for funding a Solar factory and screaming about the horrors of wind power and crying that America desperately needs an Oil pipeline ou can export Oil from Terxas, and are standing firm in support of Kentucky Coal (Hi rand Paul) are actually expanding wind energy to balance their budgets. Guess what? They are lying to you.Fun!
In the midst of all that horrible typing(seriously, proofread) you have some funny ideas.
Wind energy is a money pit.
Texas has a good deal going for wind. First, Texas is primarily using natural gas, due to their location, and has relatively high electricity costs compared to say Virginia, which is coal country central and pays far less. Second, they get billions in subsidies and tax credits for building wind farms instead of natural gas plants. Third, Texas is relatively flat and often has good wind, most places don't.
Even after all of the billions in subsidies, the prime location, and their higher than average starting costs, you still have a fourth problem as well. Wind energy isn't cheaper in texas, natural gas is. They're doing it for the same reason Bush was pushing that ethanol shit, even though it's a fucking terrible idea and pollutes the environment more than the gas does. People are fucking stupid, and our Ex president is no exception, even if he's a genius compared to the current one, who thought it was a great idea to fund a company who's business plan was to provide slightly more efficient solar energy at twice the price of the existing panels from China.
This has got to be the most hilarious thing I have read in a long time. OMG, I never knew the science of Climatology only sprang up in the last 20 years. I guess those 19 century books I read a while back debating the causes of the Ice Ages were all fakes!
When climatology research stops getting funded almost exclusively by governments, come back and tell me. I don't expect I'll be hearing from you anytime soon. Right now the profession is a mass hysteria machine. It used to be science. It used to be "what is happening, and why?". Now it's "X is happening, how can I make people believe me, and how can I make a lot of money from it?"
I don't see party politics as part of this discussion. Some individuals are poised to make a lot of money from climate change hysteria, some already have, and our job as rational people is to keep them honest by not being sheep. I'm not a sheep.
I went to sleep on it last night and awoke this morning to realise that I do in fact believe in 'climate change'. We have 4 seasons, and climate/temperatures change some with each changing season.... and I didn't need any bought and paid for scientists to tell me that. Yeah, it suddenly dawned on me at 9.06am that I've always known this, and that fechen climatologists have confused the issue with fudged data to make Summer a more prolonged and planet threatening occurrence. Shame on them... not just for falsifying data, but for taking shiploads of money for doing it.
Anyway, the conclusion to my climate revelations is that I might go back to school to become a climatologist... cos I'd like shiploads of money, too. I might have to learn to tell bullshit better, and hopefully there are classes for that, but I'm sure I'd manage if I simply followed the lead of the other climate experts... er, I mean other climate change bullshitters.
Hehe, I don't think the 'climate change' protagonists are gonna sell their wares here.... which makes me wonder. With the world largely refusing to accept this fanciful theory, will we eventually see huge advertising banners saying "Get your cheap 'climate change packages here" and find heavily discounted 'climate change' packages on sale in supermarkets. And then, what would one expect to find in said packages... bottled air from 1901, and some from 2015, thus proving that our air is somehow a lot warmer?
It's based on 'models', not falsifiable hypotheses - like the 'science' used by the Federal Reserve. That's sure worked out well.
They call it "Journalism", and I'm pretty sure you can major in it. One seminal work you'd read is "Rules for Radicals" by Saul Alinsky, dedicated to Lucifer. Let's see here, rule 5: "Ridicule is man's most potent weapon." For example, you can ridcule climate change deniers. How about Rule #9: "The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself."
Sort of. Models are simplifications of reality. Since we cannot simulate accurately the entire ecosystem we have to reduce to a model that takes a reduced set of factors into account, and simulate that. Where the hypotheses come in is determining which factors are most relevant, and by how much. My model might decide to factor in the carbon reducing effect of photosynthetic microorganisms in oceans, whereas your model might not. If my agenda is to convince others global warming is a significant threat, I might choose to emphasize factors that produce my desired result. That is bad science. Some argue that is exactly the kind of science many government funded researchers are doing right now. For 18 years models predicted a rise in surface temperatures that didn't happen. The models were nearly unanimously wrong. But instead of saying they were wrong the scientists instead decided they were calculating temperature measurements wrong all along, and aberacadabera, alakazam, the models all the sudden magically turned out to be correct! Seems fishy, and the non sheep are right to question it.
There are lies, damned lies, and climate change models. Take your pick.
Just because a lot of 'smart' people are playing games with computer models, doesn't mean playing games with computer models is science. Even calling things like economics, sociology and climate change 'soft sciences' is a bit of an insult to real science. About as logical as the phrase 'Political Science'. Dressing an idea up in complex mathematics may be a fun, perhaps even useful, exercise for a mathematician, but that's about as far as it goes. Just because it's the 'best (only?) method we have' doesn't make it science. It involves hypotheses which can never even be the subject of controlled experiments, let alone be falsified. More akin to devising mathematical gambling methods to 'beat the odds' at Vegas casinos. Granted, doesn't much matter what you call it if it 'works' but that is usually only temporary, as with the Federal Reserve's 'science'; each time they've thought they'd figured it out the hypothesis (what they call 'policy') has gone tits up to be replaced by a new hypothesis equally vulnerable to reality.
The thing no one seems to think about, is in the terms of our planets age, we've only just left an Ice Age. We have very little idea of what sort of cycles resulted in the ice age or what a real average of climate variation for this planet is.There is a bloody good chance that our planet is still warming from it's recent (in terms of the planet, not our life spans) deep freeze.
Sort of. Models are oversimplifications of reality.
There. Fixed it for ya.
Sort of. Models are oversimplifications of reality. There. Fixed it for ya.
thanks!
The latest NOAA obfuscation being in the news: http://legalinsurrection.com/2015/06/incontrovertible-there-is-no-consensus-on-climate-change/#more
Another valid point !!!!
And why has nobody proffered the idea the Earth may be in a decaying orbit and is now closer to the sun.
Or that aliens waaaaaay out in space are experimenting with climate control so that they may live here in comfort.
We've been measuring our distance from the Sun long enough to know that one.
Yeah, but at the rate the AGW scientists are 'fiddling' with the data, the 1930's will soon be an ice age.
Did you know they've fiddled the data so much that they can no longer confirm which month was the hottest ever? Because the month that was - until recently - recognised as the hottest ever (mid 1930's, summer) - has been revised down several times. Depending on which revision you look at, you get a different answer as to when the hottest month occurred.
And why do the 'corrections' always make historical records cooler and recent records hotter? Answer; they're desperately trying to create a trend where there is none. Why doesn't AGW, such a "clear and present danger" to all of humanity and the planet itself, clearly manifest itself in the data without such generous assistance?
And in reality, most weather stations display a warm bias over time due to urbanisation/build up around sites that may have been rural or remote when they were originally established. But the 'corrections' go the other way, every time. They're torturing the data to make it confess the sins they want to hear, and want to show us. No money in saying "all the weather and climate we're seeing is entirely within the bounds of natural variability (which it is, by the way)" now is there?
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