What happened to Global Warming?
When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.
Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in
I'd like some global warming back...
Indeed. LOL. I am not suggesting you don't have the right to spend your money as you wish. I am pointing out the fact that you use what economic power you have to punish those who don't agree with your political views makes you an intolerant twat.
Whenever someone like you barges into some discussion where my political opinions (and my views basically boil down to not wanting people to get bossed around by their government) offend them they say the same thing you said.
However, if I point out that I have the power to hire and fire people based on their politics (and make no mistake, I do) you guys freak out. Of course, I, unlike you, don't use my economic advantages to punish those who don't share my views. I think everyone is entitled to their opinion.
That's nice for you. You are free to be a hater.
Heh. And yet he provides no links. My links included the IPCC report, Realclimate.org, etc. If CO2 level changes lag temperature rising and falling, then CO2 isn't the trigger. I do, however, find it amusing to see someone think name calling someone in lieu of actually making a coherent, logical case for your opinion on an Internet forum amounts to "butt kicking".
Now, since you have made it obvious that you aren't willing to participate on our forums like a decent human being, you will be shown the door.
Your behavior outlines exactly why I don't like more power being given to the state. The far-left, like you, use what little power you have at the drop of a hat. That's liberal totalitarianism at work. I can Imagine what they would do if they had the full power of the government behind them to deal with those people they don't think are worthy of tolerance or existence.
While caseagainstfaith may, shall we say, lack tact, he does have a point...there is an explanation for why CO2 changes have historically lagged behind temperature changes that doesn't rule out the possibility of CO2 changes potentially affecting temperature...I have attached a few links, including one from your own quoted sources (realclimate)...
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/co2-in-ice-cores/
http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Why-does-CO2-lag-temperature.html
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=ice-core-data-help-solve (this one interestingly suggests the lag may be much smaller than previously thought, though I haven't seen a lot to confirm this)
The IPCC report confirms this phenomenon...I won't say all (as this is quite a long thread), but certainly most of the quotes used from the IPCC report to destroy AGW are in fact simply clarifying that phenomenon (mainly Milankovitch cycles) and when taken out of context seem to suggest the report condemns the entire AGW theory..
Here is another link (http://nadiah.org/blog/?p=57) that sums this all up nicely...you are welcome to question the credibility of that blog (it is a blog after all) but it has citations at the bottom if you are interested in further reading on these points...what is nice about this blog is that the person clearly is skeptical of AGW and "Al Gore et al" yet willing to fully investigate the issue...the conclusion is that while many AGW proponents have in fact lied or cherry picked data, the scientific community has definitely provided a very good explanation for why temperature increases precede CO2 increases, an explanation that inherently banks on CO2 increases have significant affects on global temperatures...the biggest unknown seems to be how exactly temperature increases lead to such great increases in CO2, not whether CO2 increases affect temperature significantly....
(slaps forehead) I provided some of these same links here.
CO2 is a greenhouse gas. If you get enough of it, it will cause temperatures to rise. No one is disputing that.
Earlier in this thread (repeatedly btw, over 6 months ago and on) I discussed how Cyanobacteria altered our climate by taking CO2 out of it and replacing it with oxygen. Then, dozens of comments later, Geo comes in and provides a bunch of links to me regarding that event as if I hadn't already discussed it in this thread. If the atmosphere of the earth goes from 17% CO2 to 0.4% (this was over many millions of years) you're going to indeed get an affect.
What we have seen in this thread is a dodging of the key issue: IS the most recent warming trend we are experience the result of humans producing a lot of CO2 since the start of the industrial revolution? And the answer is, we don't know. We do know that historically, CO2 has not *triggered* rising temperatures.
There is a very reasonable hypothesis that warming temperatures unlock carbon traps which results in more CO2 in the atmosphere which exacerbates the problem. That's fine. Warming temperatures unlock Co2, Methane and countless other carbon-based molecules. And those additional green house gasses magnify the warming trend.
The analogy I gave earlier in thread was this: If I have a room full of old newspapers you can't blame it for starting a fire. Something else started the fire. Having a bunch of old newspapers in your room just made it worse.
Um, what?
I haven't been reading posts from the last month or so, but we have previously posted a large number of links in this thread to scientific studies which show that it is overwhelmingly likely that humans are causing warming.
For example, many of us have linked to IPCC reports or similar reports. Given the huge number of reports that myself and others have linked to which address this exact subject, your statement is extremely odd.
Um, source? I am not a geologist, but my understanding was that a lot of the warming in the Cretaceous was due to CO2:
"The "Cretaceous Greenhouse World" refers to an episode of earth history that lasted from about 110 to 90 million years ago. During this time, submarine volcanic CO2emissions were released into the atmosphere at rates high enough to cause atmospheric CO2 concentrations in excess of 1,000 ppm. This CO2 buildup resulted from rapid sea-floor spreading related to the breakup and drifting apart of the Earth’s continents2. The buildup lasted for about 10 million years, and the ensuing period of peak warming coincided with an explosive growth in the genetic diversity of flowering plants, social insects, birds, and mammals--organisms that dominate modern terrestrial ecosystems. The consequences of a similar greenhouse buildup occurring over the course of only a few hundred years, however, are likely to be highly disruptive to natural ecosystems. Plants and animals live in zones of predictable temperature and precipitation. If this climate is altered too quickly, the species may not have sufficient time to migrate and adapt.Recent paleoclimate modeling has provided insights into the nature of global warming during the Cretaceous. These results suggest that atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Cretaceous were four times current CO2 levels, and the global mean temperature during the Cretaceous was 11.2°F warmer than present3. Some important questions remain about the amount and intensity of precipitation during the Cretaceous. It has been proposed that globally averaged precipitation in the Cretaceous Greenhouse World was 28% greater than present, although scientific data to verify this are only now being developed4. Ongoing studies of ancient terrestrial deposits on earth are needed to help scientists understand present trends and anticipate future global climate changes."
http://www.igsb.uiowa.edu/Mapping/greenhse/grnhouse.htm
Perhaps you can explain where I am mistaken here?
(And before anybody jumps in with "AH HA! THAT WAS A NATURAL CHANGE IN THE PAST, SO IT CAN BE A NATURAL CHANGE NOW." No. Note that that change took place over ~10 million years while this one took place over 100 years. Not the same at all).
Oh, and to people who want to see CO2 then temps go up:
You generally can't see this because of time resolution.
I'm still not a geologist, but I imagine that something like an ice core has a time resolution of years to decades to maybe even centuries. In other words, you can say that the atmospheric conditions on 3000BC +/- 10 years was X. There is fairly large uncertainty in what exact date you are looking at.
But, the temperature responds to the greenhouse gases much more quickly. It doesn't take years or decades for the temperature to change once you change the state of the atmosphere.
So you can't measure a change in our atmosphere THEN see a change in our temperature given the data. We don't have the time resolution.
Now I could be wrong about all that above since I never practiced geology, but I do have enough experience doing science in other areas to be somewhat certain that that is what is going on.
So, we're just supposed to 'believe' what can't be seen is true because a bunch of people decide it's 'likely'. OK.
If your claim that temperature responds to greenhouse gases much more quickly were true, we should have seen very dramatic warming over the past 2 decades. That hasn't happened. And if historical data is too imprecise to be relied upon, why does IPCC do so?
The head slap remains appropriate because nothing you've cited demonstrates rising atmospheric CO2 concentration is the precipitating cause of higher global temperatures.
As for the old newspapers and/or oily rags? Exothermic processes of decomposition cause the combustion.
I really don't see the necessity to split the hair. We know the CO2 is coming from burning hydrocarbons. There are other gasses produced as well (which produce acid rain), and H2O vapor which holds the latent heat of vaporization.
What cannot be claimed is that man is not accentuating and accelerating a trend. The effect will be critical, if not fatal.
Any effort to decrease the use of hydrocarbons for fuel is good. Hopefully the greater and more rapid the decrease, the better.
It is immaterial whether the CO2 initiated or accentuates a trend.
What is material is that every effort be made to decrease CO2 production (as well as other greenhouse gasses) as quickly as possible.
Kraz, re-read the last several pages. That might help you avoid misrepresenting other people's views.
Actually, it's quite material because we don't know how much, if any, measurable affect our CO2 production is having on the climate.
We have focused our attention on CO2 production when it might be deforestation or our massive land use for agriculture or it might be something we have no idea about yet or it might be that we're having no measurable affect whatsoever.
Why CO2? Why is that the bogeyman? Why not methane? Methane has gone way way up and is a much worse greenhouse gas. What about all the extra water vapor our human cities produce? So why CO2? Co2 does aggravate the issue but we don't have any idea how much and what evidence we do have implies it has very little effect.
Ok. So what have YOU done about it? What effort have you made? Please be specific regarding your "every" effort. I'm giving you a bit of tongue in cheek ribbing here because the co2 thing does matter politically because it gives politicians a new excuse to coerce how we live our lives.
Imagine how much progress we could start with if every AGW alarmist curbed their own carbon foot print by installing solar cells and buying electric cars?
Just to give you an idea of how absurd the CO2 bogeyman is, this is from skepticalscience.com, by no means a right wing site:
We've massively increased our CO2 in the atmosphere.
However, worldwide temperatures have not remotely followed this.
But it gets worse, IF temperature was heavily affected by CO2, we'd already be screwed beyond all recall. You'd need to decrease CO2 back down to less than 300 just to approach historical norms and there is no way that's going to happen. So be thankful that CO2 isn't a significant driver of temperature.
I'm with ya on sentence 1. Sentence 2, not so much; assumes facts not in evidence as my lawyer frenemies would say.
This is false. What you mean is that you don't have a good idea. The scientists doing the research have a very good idea the effect our CO2 production is having. It's clearly outlined in the IPCC reports and elsewhere. Takes 5 seconds of Googling to find. Has been linked multiple times throughout the thread.
For greenhouse gases the variables that matter are: what concentration, its potential to capture and radiate heat, and how long it lasts in the atmosphere. Methane is more potent than CO2 in terms of its effect in trapping heat but lasts for only 1/10th the time of CO2. Methane currently has less of an overall radiative forcing effect than CO2 but this could change in the future as there large amounts currently trapped in permafrost that can be released as it melts.
I did go back and read several pages.
With all due respect, YOU are clearly the one who is misrepresenting what people are saying. You saying that people are "dodging" the issue of whether or not man made CO2 is causing climate change despite the fact that myself and several others have consistently and repeatedly provided links in this thread to multiple sources which discuss this very issue in great depth (e.g. IPCC reports).
To put it bluntly, I find your statement hypocritical.
There is nothing special about CO2 really - people just like to talk about it the most. In fact, you will notice that I generally talk about the inclusive group of "greenhouse gasses" instead of just CO2 unless somebody specifically brings up CO2. Most scientists do the same.
The most recent IPCC report explicitly addresses methane as well - these major reports generally conclude that methane accounts for about 20% of radiative forcing. So its certainly important. But I think that one reason it doesn't take center stage (despite the fact that its about 34 times worse per mass than CO2 in terms of global warming) is that it doesn't last that long in the atmosphere (~8 years), and it converts down into CO2 (and water) anyway.
The fact that temperature and greenhouse gas levels are strongly correlated provide strong evidence that one causes the other regardless of whether or not you can actually show a temporal relationship between the two from data. Yes, correlation does not prove causality, but it is certainly strongly suggestive, especially when you have a strong causal mechanism from well established physical theory (that nobody disputes).
The data isn't necessarily imprecise - the time resolution is simply large compared to the time needed for the temperature of the atmosphere to respond to composition changes.
We haven't seen massive climate changes over the last few decades because current CO2 changes are still small compared to those in say, the Cretaceous. It takes time for the CO2 to build up from our industrial processes, so the effect is cumulative and it will get worse over time for that reason. It's not like it was a sudden impulse in 1950 or something.
Ok ekko, so according to the IPCC report, what would the temperature be if CO2 were still 275ppm?
I've been one of the people linking to the IPCC report. Anyone claiming they've read this thread while suggesting that I (or others) haven't done plenty of googling during the course of it are being disingenuous.
Rather than repeat myself when someone jumps in and builds a strawman I'll just refer you to previous posts. It's like debating creationists who haven't studied their own bible thoroughly. (Tongue in cheek).
OK, this gets a separate post because this is getting into things that I know a bit more about.
The key is the word "significant".
The temperature of the Earth is obviously dominated by the energy from the Sun, which is basically a function of the distance to the Sun and the luminosity of the Sun (you can throw in bond albedo too if you want). Compared to that, obviously the greenhouse effect is not "significant".
But human civilization is pretty finely tuned a narrow range of temperatures, so small changes in temperatures have a big effect. So changes that can be caused by second order effects like global warming are highly relevant.
Now the massive problem with your implicit argument with your plot is that the relationship between temperature and greenhouse gases is not at all linear. That is, if you double something like CO2, you don't double the temps. There are just a ton of highly nonlinear effeects involved here, which is why so many people with PhDs have to carefully model all this crap.
So a big spike in CO2 levels can have a fairly small change in temperatures at first, especially since you have a big temperature baseline that is dominated by effects that are not related to greenhouse gasses in the first place. But that doesn't imply that there is no relationship between greenhouse gasses and atmospheric temperatures. It just means that things in reality can be nonlinear (not surprising in reality), and that things can have multiple causes (also not surprising in reality).
ill refer you to previous posts. I make no such implicit argument. I don't disagree with anything you just wrote other than the straman you built to represent my argument.
Why don't we want the earth to get warmer anyway? I mean if the earth got warmer canada could be like,. a real country. Or even greenland!
Seriously though if the earth actually were to get reasonably warmer wouldn't that be a good thing relatively speaking? More crops. More livable land. And all that jazz.
In any case it couldn't possibly be worse for humanity than the effect of stopping fossil fuel usage which would basically send us back to some pre-industrial hell that no one wants to live in.
The total increase in temps over the last 100 years is roughly 0.75 degrees per the 4th IPCC report (from 2007). Roughly 2/3 of that change has happened since 1980.
Isn't this the number you are looking for? I assume that you don't want the CO2 specific number since you were chiding people for only considering CO2.
Sure would be nice to see actual data supporting this idea. The predictions based on the models that all those PhD's came up with failed to materialize. The fact that there is a big temperature baseline dominated by effects unrelated to greenhouse gases doesn't mean that CO2 is driving a spike in temperatures. The historical timeline simply doesn't fit a CO2-first scenario.
I'm not aware anyone has argued otherwise. Squirrel.
You showed a plot which has a sharp peak in CO2 levels and argued that because we have not seen seen a similar pattern in worldwide temps, the two aren't significantly related.
I point out that your whole argument is flawed because the world can't be approximated as linear and because approximating temperature as having a single cause is unlikely to be successful.
This is not a strawman. This is just pointing out why entire fields of people with PhDs in science don't agree with your simplistic argument.
I'm not saying this stuff to be a dick or something. I just get annoyed when people see one simple plot then come up with a simplistic interpretation of it and claim to disprove a 10,000 people with PhDs who saw the plot 10 years ago. Its like some 8th grader lecturing you on AI because he just learned about the if statement in C. I'm not saying that you have to blindly accept everything that scientists say, but this idea that people have that scientists have no idea what they are doing and that you can just come in and look at a single plot and disprove everything is simply absurd.
In any case, if you want to say things like "CO2 isn't a significant driver of temperature", you are going to have to deal with very strong counter examples like past geologic epochs (like the Cretaceous that I talked about above, but I believe there are others), as well as current the current time on other astronomical bodies like Venus. In those cases, you had large changes in CO2 that substantially changed global temperatures, and this is not disputable by any reasonable person.
Frogboy, I hope you will read this post in its entirety before preparing a response/counterargument...I'm going to start with this quote here:
You are fully acknowledging that CO2 in and of itself can cause temperature to rise...we can discuss the degree of the effect later, but your statements have repeatedly demonstrated this -- you are fully aware that carbon dioxide independently can cause temperature increases...please note I'm not saying (or implying you are saying) that CO2 has caused temperature increases, merely that it can cause temperature increases...
Just so we are on the same page, we've all established (and I think agree) that CO2 can raise temperatures all on its own...now, I think (if I understand your argument correctly) you would at this point question whether that increase is significant, and that is indeed a very fair question, so let us look at the history...
Here again, I think you and the scientific community are on the same page:
So, not only do you acknowledge that CO2 can theoretically raise temperatures, but you also acknowledge that it has historically raised temperatures...here is your statement again:
Certainly an important distinction is to be made here...you, as well as the scientific community, are very clear on this -- greenhouse gases did NOT drive the increases in temperature....BUT (and this is a very important "but"), greenhouse gases were significant contributors to global warming...
The entire hypothesis (which, by your words "That's fine" I take to be agreeable to you) relies on the fact that the Milankovitch cycle is a very small contributor to historical temperature changes...the driving force, yes, but not the MAIN contributor...the hypothesis rather banks on greenhouse gases being the main contributor to temperature increases...again, NOT the driving force, but the main contributor nevertheless...
By this point, I hope it has clearly been established that greenhouse gases can cause temperature increases and those increases can indeed be significant...judging by your statements, you are fine with suggestions that greenhouse gases can raise temperatures, and I think you have to accept that those changes can be significant or else you will have to rescind on previous statements, which I have quoted again:
You simply seem to take issue with the possibility that greenhouse gases could drive temperature changes:
You use an analogy with old newspapers to explain your thinking....
Your analogy compares CO2 to old newspapers...the analogy fails because newspapers cannot start a fire on their own while CO2 can cause temperatures to increase on their own...I will repeat, just so we are clear, that I'm not saying (or again, implying you are saying) that CO2 has caused temperature increases, merely that it can cause temperature increases...
As I have shown though, your analogy is not logically sound...just because CO2 has not historically driven temperature changes doesn't mean it can't...
What concerns me about your viewpoint is that on one hand you seem to acknowledge CO2 has the ability to increase temperatures, but then on the other hand you preclude the possibility of it driving temperature increases and you bank solely on history to support your belief...you are so fixated on finding a historical example of CO2 driving temperature increases that you are not willing to accept that it is fully possible even if it hasn't happened before...
Let me use a better analogy...say there is a flame burning in a room and next to this flame is a wax canister filled with combustible gas...as the flame burns, it melts the wax which eventually releases the combustible gas and BOOM...this would be akin to Milankovitch cycles causing large amounts of greenhouse gases to release into the atmosphere, and those gases then causing significant temperature increases....
However, one could also simply just start pouring combustible gas into the room and also get a BOOM without the wax having to melt...this would be comparable to humans putting lots of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere directly...
In either case, you get a BOOM (or temperature increase)...
I prefer to look on the long term scale and then this 'sudden temperature rise' is the tiniest squiggle on an undulating vector you'd expect from a non-linear chaotic system. The mere thought the mankind is responsible is yet another doomsday fantasy, same as any other which has been passed down the millennia in various ancient texts.
It's a very simple and basic underlying mechanism at work here: the little ape feels lost in a totally uncaring universe and tries to exercise influence on its destiny. By imagining it is the root cause of all evil it is the center of the world and thus in control.
There is no difference between the guy standing on a mountain top shouting 'the end is nigh' and AGW proponents.
This feast of self flagellation will be food for psychologists for centuries to come, on an earth which scratches itself a bit from the itching caused by the myriad of ants glamoring for attention.
Thanks Sele, when I get access to a PC I'll respond more fully. But basically, given enough CO2 or any greenhouse gas and you'll have an impact. However, historical records show that CO2 levels have a very very weak effect on temperature relative to its concentration. Sure, if we go back to several % of the atmosphere being CO2 that's a big problem. That just shows it takes a lot of CO2 to have a measurable impact, therefore it's a weak driver (which doesn't contradict the IPCC, the CO2 increase is the largest atmospheric change that can affect climate in recent years, but that doesn't make it the overall, or even significant driving force).
Also, not to be pedantic but green house gasses on their own can't produce heat. Only the sun does that. So my old newspaper analogy is valid. The more green house gasses you have, the more heat gets trapped but it doesn't make the energy in the first place. since the climate data shows co2 levels lag temperature changes (I.e. Temps go down even when co2 levels stayed higher than normal) we can conclude that co2's ability to impact temperature is relatively weak.
I also remembered why I ignore Kraz. It's like he just doesn't have the reading comprehension (perhaps English isn't his native language?) to understand what is being said. It's like he builds this elaborate misrepresentation of what people have posted and then proceeds to knock it down while claiming victory. And if you try to correct his misrepresentations he will insist his interpretation of what you said superseded what you actually said or meant. I have stated my position about as clear as I'm capable of. I am sorry I have failed to make it clear enough for him.
You didn't type that from the office did you?....
I directly quoted you and interpreted your statements IN THE EXACT SAME WAY as Sele did.
When multiple people are interpreting your statements in the exact same way, I suggest that my reading comprehension is not the problem. Furthermore, his objections are essentially the EXACT same as mine.
As such, I suggest that my reading comprehension is not the problem here.
This point deserves its own post:
Please read the above because it really emphasizes what people have been trying to explain to you - you are making a highly fallacious argument here. All you can conclude from this lag (as others have explained from you) is that there can be multiple causes of climate change.
For example, I might theorize that covering your house in gasoline and lighting a match will cause it to catch fire. The observation of a case where a house burns down due to lightening strike does not disprove this theory. It merely shows that there might be multiple causes for house fires.
In the same way, an observation of a case where CO2 did not cause the initial increase in temperature in some cases does not indicate that CO2 weakly impacts temperature. It just means that multiple things might strongly impact temperature.
HOWEVER, most of the climate change in the past still happens after the CO2 release. In the above case that you seem to be referencing, 90% of the global warming happens after the CO2 release.
The full summary:
"When the Earth comes out of an ice age, the warming is not initiated by CO2 but by changes in the Earth's orbit. The warming causes the oceans to release CO2. TheCO2 amplifies the warming and mixes through the atmosphere, spreading warming throughout the planet. So CO2 causes warming AND rising temperature causes CO2rise. Overall, about 90% of the global warming occurs after the CO2 increase."
So while the initial cause might not have been CO2, it certainly was a MAJOR contributing factor to the past global warming. All of this actually supports AGW - nobody has ever claimed that greenhouse gasses are the only way to heat up the planet. Of course there can be multiple causes. But greenhouse gasses are a swell way of doing it, and this case is clearly one case in which greenhouse gasses played a major role, even if they weren't the first thing to cause the change.
This is all why we do science.
We can know how much greenhouse gasses we need to have an impact. We know how much of an effect the current greenhouse gasses have already had (roughly 3/4 of a degree). We can predict with some reasonable uncertainly how much of an effect future changes will have on the climate. Thats what science does.
Now, the changes are not large compared to say the absolute size of the temperatures. The temp at the Earth's surface is ~300 Kelvin and the predicted changes will be ~3 Kelvin over a century. So yeah, its a 1% effect or so.
But its not really the percentage that matters. What matters is what happens with the change. And we know, with a high degree of certainty, that even these small changes will have a very negative effect on us humans since we are so fine tuned to our current environment. So you may be correct in some sense that the changes are not "significant" compared to astronomical or geological changes, but compared to HUMAN relevant changes, they are hugely significant indeed.
This can be deleted as I combined my posts to avoid post spam.
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