What happened to Global Warming?
When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.
Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in
I'd like some global warming back...
I think you are totally wrong. If we can severely change the climate of entire regions (check the desertification in the South Saharan region), why can't we change the climate of the whole planet? Changing most of the landmass surface has no effect on the planetary climate, saying this is a bit funny I think.
http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/environment-book/desertificationinsahel.html
Deserts aren't static. I ignore the chafing over such things. They're blaming everything in the book on us, but what we do in these areas is shift, not propel for the most part.
You can speed up the rate at which a drought stricken area becomes sand dunes, but it gets the desert label purely based on rainfall for a reason. Where man has made deserts is in places where we've diverted water, such as the Three Gorges dam in China. That's not necessarily altering the climate though, it's making a trade. You stop the water from going one place, and end up with it somewhere else. They've traded a massive lake and vast tracts of irrigated farmlands for an expanding desert.
The Saharan has been advancing and retreating for as far back as anyone can find.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth
148,940,000 km2 land
For 7 billion people, that's 0.021 km2 land for each person.
I would say it makes perfect sense that humans are able to shape the surface of the earth any way they want, by their sheer numbers, helped by billions of animals. And since 100 years it's even easier because they are aided by powerful machines.
Well actually, we do. A desert is not just about rain. It's also about the state of the top soil, the (im)balance between growth and destruction, and even the groundwater level.
If destruction keeps outpacing growth, humans can maintain artificial deserts (or at least sub-par ecosystems) even in places where there is enough rain to normally sustain a nice eco-system.
In the worst case, sometimes the local climate is changed because of a change in moisture balance. Forests are cooler and regulate moisture; grasslands are more erratic; barren grounds are unable to regulate temperature and moisture, water flows away as soon as it touches down.
For examples about how humans have changed ecosystems look no further than Greece. Greece wasn't always a land of olive trees... humans have destroyed the top soil and therefore olive trees are the only trees that still grow there.
Removing ground water can make deserts an even worse place by removing the few water holes or the few water ways there are.
Oh, I stumbled on this interesting news about the state of the Amazon forest... not really related to this but interesting anyways.
http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=6016&method=full
Oh... it is dated 2006. Good thing nothing happened!
Exactly what I wanted to say. Climate is a complex thing, not just rainfall and temperature, and a barren place having only sand (or other rocks) is a Desert, no matter what level of rainfall or temperature you want desert to begin with (like 250mm or something), if the area has little to no plant cover, than it is a desert, and the semi-desert climate has been changed.
Again, nice point there. Take Hungary as an example. Drying up several thousands of km2's of swamps and removing forests next to the rivers HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE CLIMATE? I can say they have. Moisture levels are lower, relative temperatures are changed drastically. Maybe the rainfall is around the same level, and temperatures have just risen a small amount, but climate is so much more..
Yes, and many places are strongly connected to the groundwater level, as in dryer periods plants can only use that water. Like Hungary, we are using so much groundwater in some decades plant coverage will die out in many places..
The mid-Holocene `green' Sahara represents the largest anomaly of the atmosphere-biosphere system during the last 12 000 years. Although this anomaly is attributed to precessional forcing leading to a strong enhancement of the African monsoon
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s003820000074?no-access=true
In other words, deserts come and go no matter who lives there or anywhere.
Everyone knows this, BUT, human presence and activity can change this, overherding and bad water management are not natural circumstances... Like the whole existence of mankind is not a natural phenomena, machines are not natural, almost anything humans do are unnatural, especially bringing online long inactive power sources of millions of years (fossil stuff) and changing the natural ecosystem EVERYWHERE.
Without humans it is hard to determine what would happen, but you can clearly see humans have huge impact on the whole planet. No other race before was able to wipe out this many races, destroy this amount of forests, ruin this many water systems, poison the atmosphere, soils, waters, oceans. Couple this with a major extinction event noone knows where will it stop.
And saying that these above all have NO EFFECT on the planetary climate or the planet as a whole system, is blind, like you don't even want to realise these things.
Negligible effect not no effect. A bit like a mosquito has on the skin of an elephant.
Well then ... what kind of a CO2 increase would be noticeable, according to you?
Sorry to go a little off topic Rus, but everytime I get swarmed by AGW alarmists I tink of this song...
And yes I be from dere...
Basically you question everything I am learning at university, like my professors are idiots and don't know anything about climate and stuff.
Possible. More likely they are just influenced by groupthink.
It's not that your professors are idiots, people are idiots in general.
Evolution has been the dominant theory in explaining life on Earth pretty much since Charles Darwin came up with a hilariously poor explanation for the divergence of species.
Academia loves it. So much so, that they go to great lengths to avoid such addendum's as intelligent design. Twenty years ago, the evidence for evolution was about as good as the evidence for the flying spaghetti monster. The gaps(which are conveniently predicted never to be closed) in the fossil record are still immense today. Quite a few species have turned out not to actually be different species at all. Neanderthals are alive and well, living in the Balkans. They're just people.
The theory has evolved over time, but it became widespread and accepted in academia long before it became what it is today. I consider it a likely explanation, many biology teachers consider it the only possible explanation and are unable to even discuss the possibility that it's wrong. It was wrong, it probably still is wrong. What are the odds that we've actually got it licked? It's not as if someone can wait thousands of years while they watch molecules form protein chains. If it turns out they don't, well shit, we have to rethink the start yet again...
Science is a progression of one dud theory after another. Some of them change over time as new things are learned, as evolution has, or the theory of relativity. Some are just plain wrong, like early theories on light, fire, how basic elements were composed. Academia jumps all over them and starts banging away at it like they're laws. They're not. Consider how hilariously wrong someone would have been a century back, teaching gravity and time to their students.
AGW isn't gravity. We can model gravity pretty damned well. We can't model our climate worth a damn. We take approximations, and match them to approximations just fine, but when they advance a few years into actual climate data, they're way off and diverging further with every year.
When you expect some insignificant little prick teaching classes to actually be right about something new, and changing all the time, you are expecting something truly impossible. They aren't even keeping up with it, they're busy teaching classes on information that is probably years out of date in many areas. They're also using government approved teaching material in many cases, which may or may not actually represent what was known at the time they decided to add it.
I don't expect infallibility from people. I expect the opposite. Take your science classes with the same respect you'd give art appreciation. One need only look at what cleaning things like the Sistine Chapel has resulted in to know that every last one of those people teaching about the beauty in the dirty walls was a fucking moron. They did such a thorough job of deluding themselves that an entire industry was going into convulsions over how they were ruining beautiful artwork by revealing bright colors under the centuries of grime. The one thing you really need to learn from your education is critical thinking, and it's the one thing you wont by simply accepting everything they teach you. Question it.
The discussions about evolution are endless, I was in such a discussion years ago and I don't want to go into such a discussion again. It's just pointless, "intelligent design" has everything to with belief and absolutely nothing with observations and science. In fact it's a theory that always works and fits every observation perfectly... you can explain everything with it but it doesn't help you understand the world. You can't use it to make predictions about anything.
You can only question something if you know what you're talking about. That's why we've experts in every field, so that we DON'T have to question everything we see. Have some trust in people ok... we pay them to think for us.
The only things you have to question are people like politicians and the commercials on television. Those are trained to destort the truth. Science is different, that's about discovering the truth and nothing but the truth.
But it's interesting to see how "open-minded" you are, when in fact, you are extremely close-minded. By rejecting everything outright and keeping an open mind about everything, you gain no knowledge at all about the world.
We have to use working hypotheses to build upon, otherwise we won't get anywhere.
Science works with the best, most robust theories available and the theories are tested again and again against new observations.
The true definition of group think, your teachers obviously also believed this as well.
It is no wonder their are so many zombie movies and that only a so small a percentage of the population is left to fight off the hordes. I, like psychoak, am done with responding to a mindless drone.
It's not group think... I've written that I don't trust politicians for example.
I select whom to trust.
Science is more trustworthy than for example politicians, because science is "designed" around reproducibility of results, and around discovering the "truth".
Of course there are untrustworthy people in science as well, those are paid by big corporations to produce biased results or to make biased statement.
Despite this, the scientific community as a whole is built around trust and discovery of the "truth" of things.
It is NOT built around lies, like companies, politicians, television.
Maybe you have seen too many lies on TV, Myfist0, that you've lost your trust in everything and everyone?
Now I understand better. Those who question evolution, are no longer scientific, and meaningful debates cannot be longer sustained with them. I understand everything has questionable things, but because of those completely questioning the whole existence of them if a bit.. naive, or I don't know what word to use here. Evolution is just around us, those who cannot see are as blind as a rock, along with those who cannot feel the constantly change in this world, why can't the creatures be constantly changing? ...
I have had and still have long and endless (and every time, pointless) debates about many topics (including evolution, conspiracy theories, politics in my country), now I realise the debate between those who foolishly think mankind cannot influence the planet and the climate and those who actually understand what mankind does to the world, is one of those topics. No matter what you say, it is like a religion, no side will change viewpoints unless unquestionable proofs are discovered, and it is unlikely to happen..
It is strange how developed world people want to comfort themselves that mankind is not that huge problem for the planet as it seems to be.
The proof is in the eating of the pudding. CO2 rises, temperature lowers, climate quiets down. Evidently your professors claim to know things they don't.
Reality is a bitch.
Except it doesn't work that way. Since the end of the last ice age, CO2 has risen from about 200 ppm to about 400 ppm, and temperatures have risen about 4 degrees celcius.
I again stress that NOONE has the slightest idea without human interference what should be happening. Maybe our ass would be freezing without the industrial era and the ones beyond, or maybe not. We all know there are fluctuations, BUT assuming everything is okay just because the temperature is not constantly rising.. Despite the fact that after 2000 the years were the hottest measured...
And the main question of this thread is not just the effect of CO2.. We are releasing other greenhouse gases as well.
Anyway I don't know what's everyone's problem is.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record#Warmest_years
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record#Other_reports_and_assessments
If you check the hottest years they are grouped near 2000 and after it.. And if you check the trendline, well.. It shows that the temperature is rising in the world.. True, there seems to be a small decline near 2000, but.. I think the interval of 10 years and 100+ years cannot even be compared to each other, it's like judging about the ice age and only looking at the data of some decades from the interglacial eras.
A small decrease after 2000 and everyone loses their mind, global warming that has a strong trendline since we can measure it, and noone seems to care about it. (Check the beginning of the pager and that nice graph.)
They don't believe that because they think the temperature measurements are faked (because of the corrections for known biases).
According to deniers, CO2 plays no role, because there are other processes that also change temperature.
Perhaps they should look at the prehistoric data, those represent changes between greenhouse conditions and back, and those cannot be faked and those have no human influence (unless you believe that mankind walked with dinosaurs haha).
It would be best to learn from those data, instead of waiting till the temperature rise becomes high enough to dominate the other processes - because by that time we risk that it's too late to prevent feedback events, extensive melting of icesheets, significant climate shifts which disrupt agriculture.
We already risk feedback events.. Noone knows when will the buried methane deposits come online and cause another glacial. Or when will the oceanic conveyor belts collapse. Or what is the actual reason for a glacial to start.. I guess we don't really want to find out.
OK, but what the f*ck would be the reason for that? It is pure nonsense, and against the favor of big oil and coal companies and mines.. Wouldn't it be more logical to say CO2 has no effect at all? Like Petrossa and friends say. It is strange. And how do they explain the increasing rate of extreme weather anomalies? And don't say the measurements are faked all over the world because I will just laugh at that.
Well... that's exactly what they claim.
A glacial? They'll enhance the greenhouse effect, they won't cause a new ice age...
That's a regional effect, not a global effect. It won't cause another ice age, global temperatures are too high for that.
But I just don't get the deniers. How can someone deny so much paleo-data?
How can someone deny de CO2 warming effect? It's the only long-lived factor that we know of that can influence climate in the long run, and there's so much evidence for a high correlation of CO2 and temperatures...
So if there were periods of high CO2 in the ancient past, and they were associated with high temperatures (the higher the CO2, the higher the temperature) then how can you ignore this ?
And how can you ignore ancient situations where the level of CO2 and the temperatures were so high, that half the planet was uninhabitable? Really, how can you deny that such a thing happened?
Oh, here's another alarm about the methane in the Arctic:
http://m.livescience.com/41476-more-arctic-seafloor-methane-found.html
Interesting... apparently as much as 50 billion tonnes of CH4 could be released. Its effects won't be long-lived of course, but it'll get converted to CO2, about 150 billion tonnes of it... or about 5 years of human production.
I think I agree with the skeptics here, I doubt that methane forms a "bomb" - it takes a while to melt a hundred meter deep layer of sediment, that just doesn't happen overnight. If it takes say a century, then the effect of CH4 will be hardly noticeable. Only the longer-term effect of CO2 will be present for a long time, it will shorten the timescale for us to find a solution for the warming problem with several years.
And noone knows what global temperature will break the current balance of the system, and when will a new glacial start. Warming has the side effect of an ice age.
Some scientists say this was the cause of the Ice ages, that these warm currents stopped working.. And I really don't think half Europe wants to live in a place where average temperatures are lower by 5-10°C than the normal ones.. And with more extreme climate conditions (no more oceanic climate and ice-free ports around Scandinavia..).
Yes, some scientists say that, but there are always people like that, they are just being stubborn.
If you look at Canada and Siberia, far away from the Gulf Stream, you see warming and melting of permafrost. There is just no way that ice sheets can start growing there, or anywhere on the planet under these conditions.
Without the Gulf stream, temperatures will be a little bit colder in Europe. It's not like there's a cold Gulf Stream all of a sudden that will cool Europe down.
I'm not an expert on this btw. Maybe you could point me to an article on the climate effect of the Gulf Stream? It's especially important for the Netherlands, because it makes the winters mild...
I love arguing with people that can't fucking read...
So long Turchany, someone else can bother.
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