What happened to Global Warming?
When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.
Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in
I'd like some global warming back...
The same is true for an ideal gas, but I prefer to write it this way: Pressure = constant * Density * Temperature
I just don't get this part... it's a pressure change (= net force) that makes air rise. Gravity doesn't cause this pressure change. Gravity only causes the average equilibtium pressure of the atmosphere, and heat can make perturbations in that. It's the NET FORCE that does the work and you cannot single out just gravity from that and state that gravity causes heating ...
And I don't get this part either... in order to heat up, the atmosphere first needs to capture this energy.
But I suppose you're right that the Venusian atmosphere can hold more heat. And it will take much longer for heat the radiate out as well (unless there's a lot of convection going on of course, I don't know if that's the case).
Also, the presence of CO2 would mean that more energy will be captured closer to the surface, making the lower parts of the atmosphere hotter and the upper parts colder, than would be the case without CO2.
CO2 doesn't need sunlight to do this... the surface of Venus is hot and radiates a lot of infrared radiation which can be captured by the atmosphere.
Therefore the temperature near the ground will be higher than without CO2 ... although ... convection could mitigate this effect and redistribute heat in a larger part of the atmosphere. (To some extent at least.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus
This article says that on Venus, CO2 + water vapor + sulfur dioxide cause a greenhouse effect.
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Synthetic_Venus_atmosphere_absorption_spectrum.gif
From this graph it looks to me like the combination of gases leave very little transparency where energy can escape.
(The earth's atmosphere is far more transparent).
Ugh....you're just as bad as Cykur....
Btw, you could have just said equation of state...
Solar radiation is a force. What the energy is converted into, be it work that then produces friction or an increase in temperature, would still be a product of the Sun. What is not a product of the sun is the opposing force. You're correct that it's a net force that does the work. It's the net force of gravity against the varied air density that causes currents in the air. Gravity pulls everything inward, the Sun makes some of it lighter than the whole. Gravity is responsible for much of the heating resulting from friction.
On Earth, the only time this really shows is on objects moving at high speeds. When you ride a bike, you can get a wind burn from drying out, not actual heat. Reentry on the other hand burns rock and metal. On Venus, there's over 90 times as much atmosphere, the friction is immense. Doing 90 on a highway on Venus would actually burn you, ignoring the reality that you'd implode long before you reached the surface. Friction increases with pressure.
As I said though, it should be a minor factor, the main problem is that it takes forever for heat to escape because of sheer density.
The claim isn't that there is no greenhouse effect, or even that it doesn't account for the temperature on Venus. It's that the counter claim, that the temperature on Venus is a result of a runaway greenhouse effect, is patently false.
CO2 does block some infrared. On Earth, water would absorb most of the infrared blocked by CO2, and absorbs massively more that it doesn't. On Venus, it hasn't got anything else to stop it. CO2 is the only gas trapping anything near the surface because it's the only gas of any consequence. Despite this, and an extremely high albedo, the planet is hot as hell. Why? Because no matter how little the absorption is from CO2, there's preposterously absurd amount of it. The atmosphere on Venus is a blanket 90 times as thick as the one we've got, but they try to pretend that it means something for our situation.
It's quite silly to ignore the density and claim that it's because the atmosphere is CO2 that it's so hot. The atmosphere is a product of it's condition, not the cause. A slow retrograde spin and a weak magnetic field combined with a massive level of world wide volcanism that created a blanket of CO2 so thick that it keeps the surface hot enough to maintain it.
There is a greenhouse effect, CO2 does contribute to it. The question is to what degree, and what kind of upper limits are we talking about. Venus is a catastrophe, not a conclusion. It bears no evidence, a completely irrelevant and unrelated setting. Earth has a very light atmosphere with the water cycle dominating the equation. Venus has no water cycle at all. There is no rain, the clouds are sulfuric acid and precipitates never leave the cloud layer. To use it as evidence for AGW just shows the complete lack of proof.
How we get from Earth to Venus is completely unrelated to how much CO2 is in our atmosphere, it's a product of other factors. A slow retrograde orbit and no dynamo.
Edit: Seleuceia, I think you need to just give up. A sense of humor is beyond some people.
At last.....physics that actually sounds like physics.... the same as it was in the 60's when I was learning all about it.
Thanks, psychoak for restoring some 'reality' to the discussion...
Well... all you're saying is that friction gives a contribution and that contribution is ignored by climatologists right?
I can't really argue with that, except that I have no clue how large a contribution it really is.
So let's just forget about gravity and keep it at that.
I don't think people ignore the density... due to the high albedo, it should be really cold on Venus if heat weren't trapped. The entire atmosphere of Venus would receive less energy than the entire atmosphere of earth. At lower temperatures, the Venus atmosphere would just be even denser than it is currently... well I think at least, I think it's not possible for an atmosphere that has no way to trap its heat to grow really hot because a hot atmosphere would lose its energy very quickly to space, but I'll think about it some more later on.
And there are also more extensive thoughts about it like this:
http://www.universetoday.com/22577/venus-greenhouse-effect/
That Venus might've started one day with a "normal" atmosphere and mild temperatures... but when it became too hot, carbon from rocks escaped into the atmosphere and inflated the atmosphere... interesting. Would such a thing be possible on Earth?
I sorta agree with that, you cannot compare them 1:1.
What you can do however, is test radiation models and assumptions to see if they hold up in such conditions.
If they are consistent, then it gives a little extra confidence that they can also be used on Earth - it's just another independent set of data.
After all, on earth we don't have an atmosphere with high levels of CO2, so we cannot test models and assumptions against observations on Earth. We don't have much sulfuric dioxide. And Venus doesn't have CFC's. But does it matter... you just measure the concentrations of gases, put them into a model and see if the temperature matches the observations.
I've read and thought about it a little more.
Imagine the extreme case of an atmosphere that would be completely transparent and doesn't capture heat itself. Its temperatue would be completely controlled by the temperature at the surface of the planet. It doesn't matter at this point how high the pressure is - it will be a very high pressure atmosphere at the surface, with the temperature of that surface. The air will transport heat up through convection, meaning the temperature will slowly drop with altitude.
Imagine a case where only ingoing energy is absorbed by the atmosphere, and outgoing energy is not blocked. This means that the upper part of the atmosphere will be heated. This way we could creating a temperature inversion where heat is captured high up in the atmosphere ,and little heat is left to reach the surface. Convection does not work in this case, because convection only acts in bringing hot air up, not down. Therefore the surface of such a world will be very cold. It doesn't matter how high the pressure is at the surface - if little heat reaches the surface (not through convection and not through radiation), then it'll be cold there no matter what.
And the next step is a more balanced case where energy is absorbed both at the top of the atmosphere and at the bottom of the atmosphere. Most of the heat from the top will stay there, because convection does not work top-down. The bottom of the atmosphere will be heated by direct contact with the surface, and by absorbing radiation that escapes the surface. In this case, the bottom part of the atmosphere can become hotter than the surface. The captured heat will be distributed upward mainly by winds.
If you would have a very dense atmosphere like Venus, but with few greenhouse gases, what would happen then? The temperature would be controlled by how much heat would be captured near the surface. If the composition of the atmosphere were similar to Earth's atmosphere, except 60x more dense, then 400ppm would capture a lot more energy near the surface, it would become 60x as strong and I think it would be pretty hot there... let's see, a 10x increase in CO2 is catastrophic on earth, leading to about 10 to 15 degrees of heating where oceans reach a temperature of about 40 degrees and experience massive extinction. So a 60x increase would lead to ... I don't know.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Density_of_air
http://missionscience.nasa.gov/ems/13_radiationbudget.html
http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Atmosphere/earth_atmosph_radiation_budget.html
How much does a doubling of CO2 cause... these guys have some interesting thoughts about it...
http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=1169
http://nov79.com/gbwm/hnzh.html
http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-Physical-Chemistry-of-Carbon-Dioxide-Absorption.html
They're scientists and they don't really agree... oh well...
Now let's go to a Venus-style atmosphere. In addition to CO2 and H2O, it also has lots of SO2, CO. These gases block additional infrared radiation, leaving no gap in the spectrum for energy to escape into space. In this case, almost all the heat will be trapped. If it's the combination of such gases that's so deadly, could such a total lock could happen on Earth? What would happen if volcanoes spew much SO2 and CO into our atmosphere, would it heat up a lot? I wonder... SO2 is absorbed by rain and washed out of our atmosphere, but if it didn't rain or if the air was so hot that rain evaporated before it could reach the surface, then who knows...
For Venus to have ever been anything like Earth, it needed a decent magnetic field and a spin sufficient to avoid burning one side of the planet while the other froze. It should have had the spin and the magnetic field, far enough back in time. The loss of those is not a product of the greenhouse effect though.
Earth has a functional orbit, and a magnetic field strong enough to keep the water cycle in play.
We can't model Venus.
Essentially, the greenhouse effect deals in time. You can't look at the current state of something and determine that it's fixed. We have next to no information on the long term climate of Venus. We don't really know much about it's current climate. Much of it is guesswork. The planet has these odd S shaped vortexes at the polar regions that they're still trying to figure out. Don't expect a model that functions as a product of time to be accurate when they can't even figure out the present circumstances.
I don't want to go into such details anymore... I was refering to more robust data like vertical temperature profiles. That's all.
This article is actually pretty interesting...
http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=3&t=118&&n=491
I think it basically says that much of the heating by CO2 is because the heat stays longer in the atmosphere.
This means that the total heat content of the atmosphere is not simply everything that the sun throws at us (and then it's lost again at the same time), but everything the sun throws at us during some time interval. And the more CO2, the longer the time interval.
Some of the comments are also interesting. The molecules of CO2 and H2O are the only ones in the atmosphere that are capable of radiating/absorbing energy at earth's temperatures.
O2 and N2O require much higher temperatures to emit and/or absorb any significant amounts of heat. This means that the only factors that control radiative heat loss/gains, are CO2 and H2O and the Earth's surface. The rest can help with convection, but not actual radiative loss...
For the record, any friction experienced is independent of pressure...it is in fact due to density, and while this is still relevant to Venus there is an important distinction...
Ah, so while I rub my chin in vexatious contemplation the feeling of friction I sense isn't due to how hard I rub....but whether I'm dense or not...
Well played...I suppose I could have inserted an "in the above examples", but I thought it was implied...
Unless you would like me to go into how fluid friction is different from kinetic friction...but we don't need to go there, do we? I sure hope not...I've hit my quota for how much pseudo physics I can spew and I certainly have no interest in talking about real physics...
Here's something else:
http://m.everythingscience.co.za/grade-12/16-optical-phenomena-and-properties-of-matter/16-optical-phenomena-and-properties-of-matter-04.cnxmlplus
This means: CO2 in the atmosphere will radiate energy only at certain wavelenghts that other CO2 molecules can capture. Thus, CO2 can form an efficient trap (O2, N2O are transparent at those frequencies).
I imagine that if the CO2 molecule is relatively cold, then most of that emission will be at long wavelengths and very little will be emitted at short (high energy) wavelengths.
This means that radiation can be converted to a black-body spectrum only at the Earth's surface, containing wavelengths that are not captured by CO2 or H2O (so that energy can escape freely).
I was also wondering, why some skeptics think there's a "saturation" point for CO2. After all... every CO2 molecule that is added will help to bounce radiation around, meaning that radiation will be trapped longer and there's no upper limit to this process. If radiation takes longer to escape, while there's a steady amount of radiation coming from the sun, then the energy in the atmosphere builds up and the temperature increases. So I would think there's no upper limit to this process (for practical purposes).
Even convection cannot stop this process of capturing more heat. It will distribute the extra heat "more evenly", perhaps masking the effect at the ground, but it cannot really stop this process I would think - because convection cannot stop radiation and the heat capture will not be affected.
Oh wait, point 3. in this page
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20100518130704AAAeign
explains that much of the energy captured by CO2 will get transmitted to the rest of the atmosphere by collisions. But, does it really matter? After all, the energy was captured and won't be radiated out by O2, N2O ; only CO2 and H2O can radiate out energy and those gases do that all the time (as long as they have a nice cozy temperature)... I think that it's amazing that such a small part of the atmosphere is responsible for the heat loss.
Although I suppose most energy is lost because of the outgoing radiation of the earth's surface, because of the part of the spectrum to which the atmosphere is transparent.
Okay, I can't help myself...
Is no one more serious than me going to address this?
The complete quote is this:
I think it was a typo or something.
Anyway, radiation can act like a force, even if it's a tiny force, after all there are designs of solar sails and spaceships that drift on the force of the sun's radiation! And even asteroids get affected by it, even if it's a really tiny disturbance.
But it'll take more than just one nuclear explosion to knock someone over just by the pressure of radiation... he'll burn up long before that.
Come to think of it, in case that global warming becomes too severe, maybe we can detonate a nuclear bombs every few days, to put enough dust in the air to cool down our planet. I suggest using H-bombs, those are less polluting. And if possible we should not detonate them in carbonate rocks of course... preferably in rocks that have little carbon in them. As a plus, the freshly exposed rocks will absorb some carbon. And the best thing is, maybe the radiation will kill the high level lifeforms that were responsible for the warming. So that our beloved brethren the cockroaches will have a fighting chance to recolonize the barren rock that we've left them as a legacy.
Of course I hope it never comes to that!
CO2 has a logarithmic effect, it's fairly obvious. If you double the concentration, you halve the distance the infrared travels between stops. This then doubles the amount of time that energy spends planet side.
The IPCC claims 3C per doubling. A hilariously high value. They also claim CO2 is responsible for 26% of the current effect. I find this hilarious too, considering water acts on a far broader spectrum, as well as overlapping the narrow spectrums CO2 covers. Pretending this isn't all bullshit though, the total greenhouse effect is only 33C, putting CO2 under . If going from 400 to 800 would change temperature by 3C, then from 200 to 400 was also 3C, and so was 100 to 200. You're already up to 6 of the 8 and you haven't even gotten close to the point where CO2 stops direct radiation in the bands it effectively blocks.
The mean free path of infrared absorbed by CO2 is only like 25 meters. Just the troposphere is 12km. How low would CO2 have to be before direct radiation took place and the additional 3C from each past doubling stopped taking place?
We get all the way to 1.5ppm to reach the point where the mean travel is about half the way through the troposphere. 24C in a cumulative greenhouse effect. So absurdly high that CO2 is no where near 26%.
The forcing effect of CO2 is made up to fit the increase in temperature since industrialization. The temperature itself being a made up trend that didn't exist in the records until just the last decade. When someone says it's saturated already, it's because 3C is sheer myth.
The driving force for atmospheric motion is the sun and, in particular, the uneven distribution of solar radiation across the earth...
I think, while a bit pedantic, his objection is also accurate; radiation/pressure, is not a force.
We got there because someone claimed that Venus proved CO2 is terrible and consists of 'layers of co2' that trap heat because how else could Venus become so hot? (thus inferring the same happens on earth)
When explained that no such layers exist, and that venus is hot mainly because of the 9000 kpa pressure plus being completely opaque due to 100% cloudcover and not due to CO2 the thread derailed in that person trying (without success) to argue that an atmosphere only heats up once due to gravity and then miraculously doesn't try to return to its previous uncompressed state contradicting various laws of nature. Which in turn then 'proves' that CO2 blocks all the heat because how else could the atmosphere stay warm. Which in turn 'proves' that CO2 on earth causes global warming.
All this proves is that logic is dangerous in the hands of the true believers.
You also have to deal with the top of the troposphere. There's a temperature inversion there, which blocks convection. The atmosphere cools down there mainly by radiation from CO2 and H2O (clouds radiating heat).
The surface of the troposphere is 2D (with a density of 400 ppm CO2 per area). However, The atmosphere is 3D (a density of 400 ppm CO2 per volume). The atmosphere is absorbing a certain amount of energy per volume. The top is radiating out all that energy through a surface. Doesn't that require a higher temperature gradient near the top?
I've not read about this, but I imagine it could be a factor.
It's not just a claim, it's been modeled.
I think that's pretty amazing, as it makes the difference between a snowball and a nice climate. And energy goes like T*T*T*T. So it's a lot of energy that's captured.
I don't know... at small concentrations of CO2 the effect of black-body radiation of the Earth's surface might be relatively less important. After all, rays are bounced back less often to the Earth when densities are lower. Then, the trapping effect of CO2 might be relatively strong.
Also, before you ridicule the contribution of CO2, have you even read this?
shows how you can reach a significant rise just by CO2 alone, by "simple" models (I haven't tried to understand them because it'll take me months to read up on that stuff but it looks fairly straightforward to me). I think that's more impressive than your guesswork when you say that CO2 has a negligible effect. It shows that in 100 years, because of about 300 ppm increase in CO2 (to about 700 ppm), the temperature can rise by about 1 degree celcius by CO2 alone, and this is just because of trapping heat and it ignores everything else.
You mean the forcing of H2O because of CO2.
Maybe you're partially right about that, after all it's an observation and how you interpret that is up to the beholder
However... if a 1 degree rise means that more water vapor resides in the atmosphere, then that can also be taken into account by models. And since most of the earth is covered by oceans that rise slowly in temperature, this is pretty straightforward I would think. Deserts can also be taken into account because they have no humidity. Polar regions are so cold, there's hardly water vapor in the atmosphere there. All in all, I think it's fairly straightforward to take water vapor into account in models for 75% of the earth's surface. Only the remaining 25% may be a little tricky. But that means that you can only be off by 25% if you make a mistake, not by 100% like you claim.
Like... take Australia. It had very heavy rains a few years ago that flooded half the continent (well... 10% maybe) and that had a significant effect on the regional climate. It's hard to take such a thing into account I think. But is it significant on a global scale? I doubt it hardly makes a dent in the global picture of warming.
Let's see.. the paleo-records showed that a hundred million years ago, CO2 levels could be as high as 2000 ppm and it is guessed that temperatures at the time were very high. Let's see what a few steps of doubling will accomplish.
300 + 300 ppm = +3 degrees
1200 ppm = + 6 degree
2400 ppm = + 9 degrees
It seems about right ... it would be a lot higher than that in the Netherlands. So if temperatures here were +15degrees, it would indeed be subtropical here. In the winter, average temperature here is near freezing - if it were 15 degrees higher, it would be like being on holiday each day! But I suppose it won't be such a great effect, the temperature here is controlled by the North Sea. So it may actually be less than that... unless the water also warms up to 15 degrees of course, instead of cooling down to 5 degrees or so
Extinction occured at higher CO2 levels.
4800 ppm = +12 degrees.
At such a temperature, the equatorial oceans would become about 40 degrees (I imagine they would have trouble getting rid of all the heat because where can it go? Only to the relatively small northern seas and oceans to cool down). Such a temperature is too hot for normal life. Extinction. That seems about right too.
First, the paleo record.
Fiction, pure and simple. They pulled the temperatures out of their ass. When you assume 3C per doubling and then say oh look, it was 12 degrees hotter back here when CO2 was at 4800, you're engaging in circular reasoning, just as they are when they state the same about today. It is an assumption being used to prove an assumption.
A previously linked study did exactly what you're saying, looked at an extinction event and, having decided CO2 was to blame, modeled the temperature based on our erroneous 3C doubling. They then claim that extreme temperatures caused the extinction, "proving" past events back up our modern claim of 3C per doubling. When talking about the study, the article noted that no one had ever made such a high temperature claim before. The reason being there was no evidence for it.
Second water vapor.
You've bought into the idea that water vapor will advance the rate of warming, but why would this be so? Clouds increase our albedo. Latent heat in the water cycle accounts for over 20% of the energy loss.
CO2 actually does increase heat with little in the way of additional cooling provided by conduction. If the increased temperature amplifies the water cycle, that results in just the opposite. More rain transporting heat out of the troposphere. More cloud cover blocking it from entering to start with.
This too is also circular reasoning. The models are not what one would think of as an actual model of the system. They're an absurdly rough abstraction, substituting massively complex systems with simple constants. They assume that CO2 is the cause, and achieve their forcing effect by applying the remainder to it after their "simple" model shows that CO2 itself would only directly contribute a third of what they got.
If, instead, the temperature increases caused the CO2 increases(by means that are accepted science, release from the oceans as they warm), then the corollary is wrong. Note that I'm not referring to our own contribution here, but the geological record that shows trailing CO2 trend lines throughout the various ice ages.
Since you mentioned deserts...
If CO2 is such an outstanding greenhouse gas, why do deserts still get so fucking cold at night?
With next to no moisture and extremely rare cloud cover in such locations, shouldn't the daytime temperatures be climbing more than typical? Death Valley(which has a low DTR thanks to it's elevation) has a century old world record temperature of 134F and hasn't hit 130F since. With almost no humidity or cloud cover, and atmospheric conditions that block conduction, this place should be a test case for AGW, yes?
Something to amuse yourself with.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/30/it-seems-noaa-has-de-modernized-the-official-death-valley-station-to-use-older-equipment-to-make-a-record-more-likely/
I know, it's cherry picking... How dare someone point out the obvious fabrication in a particular temperature record and the failures to read hotter despite obvious reasons it would!
They didn't pull it out of their ass. They observed anoxic oceans (which happens near 40 degrees celcius). They observed plantlife that migrated to the north. They observed no ice anywhere on the planet. They observed forests near the poles. Types of carbonates changed (temperature dependent). All of that indicates high temperatures.
Also, it is not a circular reasoning. The temperature rise is given by our understanding of physics, based on models that are pretty robust. Based on lab-measurements for the absorption spectra of CO2, H2O. Based on measurement of current radiation from the earth's surface. This is independent of the paleo-record.
But of course... the exact temperatures and CO2 concentrations at the time are an unknown. We can only guess at them, but those values don't look unreasonable to me. Those values of CO2 can be attained by extensive volcanic activity during a long, long period of time.
The thing that's scary to me is, that it ONLY takes a little over 10 degrees celcius of warming to get close to extinction levels. Fortunately for us, that takes a LOT of CO2 so it won't happen overnight, it'll take hundreds of years to reach that point.
Well, it's pretty obvious if you think about it. H2O molecules ("water vapor") in the air capture heat. When the air becomes warmer, it can contain more H2O. For example the poles are arid, because the air is so cold there is hardly any water in the air. If the poles become warmer, the air there can contain more H2O. The upper parts of the troposphere are also pretty cold, if they warm a little, the upper part can contain more H2O.
http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/maximum-moisture-content-air-d_1403.html
Convection distributes a temperature rise more efficiently over the atmosphere. It cannot prevent the capture of energy of the atmosphere. It cannot prevent warming of the atmosphere. Also, convection stops at 10 km height (or something, I don't remember the exact height of the temperature inversion) - at that point energy is lost by radiation from clouds and CO2. Convection cannot carry heat all the way into space...
Of course you are right that if there are more clouds, then heating could be mitigated. But there already many clouds on Earth, and they are usually concentrated in depressions while the rest of the skies are clear. Maybe clouds become bigger and contain more rain, but will the total cloud cover of the earth be significantly larger than it is now? Maybe if depressions grow larger, maybe they can cover a larger area with clouds, but it's a very small percentage of the total area of the earth.
Rain does not transport heat out of the troposphere... only radiation loss from H2O in the clouds and CO2, not the raindrops.
And it's not just the water cycles, it's also the H2O concentration in the air that's important. More H2O in the air means that heat can be trapped longer.
I'm not going into that again... as far as I'm concerned you cannot make such a bold conclusion from those data.
On top of that, ice ages are quite different events, they're controled by a tipping point after which a runaway cooling occurs. We're now in a situation were there is far less ice, ice does not control our climate anymore. We've to search for other explanations for warming and fortunately our understanding of how greenshouse gases work helps us a lot.
Because clouds and H2O are not present. A lot of heat can escape at night. CO2 in itself is not enough of course.
Maybe, if all local factors (like the geography) are taken into account as well, then who knows ... but I don't know much about that place, never been there. Maybe I'll read some more about it.
I'll read your link later on.
This is a nice compilation of data. It shows how reliable all of that is (or not) ...
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/26/co2-ice-cores-vs-plant-stomata/
Except of course I disagree with the final conclusion. He draws a red line through noisy stomata data without an error bar... and that error is pretty big I would think. His conclusion of 250 years of lag is obviously ridiculous. I would say it's 0 years plus/minus 200 years, just looking at those data... better even, I wouldn't draw any detailed conclusion like that based on those data, there are not enough data points to give enough resolution for that. Anyway... more data is needed, that's for sure.
It shows me that CO2 measurements have lots of noise and it's difficult to draw conclusions for changes as small as 50 ppm. And that means, it's hard to make conclusions about the timing of those changes as well.
The paleo-record is different of course... there we are not being nitpicky about changes of 50ppm, we're talking about changes of 1000 ppm and that's more robust (except that the data are very very old of course ...).
I think since we're heading towards a change of 1000 ppm, it's better to make conclusion from the paleo-data, than to try to make sense about the noisy shit of the last couple of millenia and trying to make sense of that, which we obviously cannot at the moment. The changes are small and there is too much noise.
http://www.climatedata.info/Proxy/Proxy/icecores.html
These kinds of ice-core data for temperature and CO2 look more consistent ...
There's a lag of a drop in CO2 when the temperature drops, but if we assume for the moment that the temperature drop is (partially) controlled by glaciation, then this may make some sense...
For a temperature rise, I don't see much difference between T and CO2.
And since we're in a period of rising temperatures, (with little ice cover present), then I don't see things in these data that are controversial with respect to our current situation ... at most the early rise when there's still a lot of ice present, might not correspond to our current situation but oh well... at least this makes some sense.
Also not their statement: "Despite all of these limitations, it is generally accepted that ice cores give a good representation of temperature over very long periods."
This means, it's useless to make claims of the order of 100 years, because 100 years is not a very long period. You'll just be claiming something on the basis of noise or a measurement bias.
Best refutation of AGW hysteria (e.g., Super Storm Sandy - which was anything but 'super' BTW) I've read in this thread so far. Well done.
It's the ocean, primarily. Something else we've been through before...
Surface temperatures drop first, ocean slowly cools off over centuries to match. As it cools additional CO2 is absorbed. When heating, the ocean still lags surface temperatures, but the CO2 is expelled as it warms while it takes a great deal of time to actually reabsorb it as it's only being taken in off the surface. Weathering requires new rocks, something that doesn't typically happen during glaciation.
The reason the lag is so obvious on the tail end, but not when temperatures rise, is because of the scaling on the graphs you're looking at. The lines are 500 years wide on that Vostok temp/CO2 graph, and twice that on the Epica graph. If the lag is only ~250 years, which jives with everything I've seen, then the two lines should occupy the same space.
You're sitting here picking at the ice core records because you don't think they're accurate. You're going to assume they're right about the specifics of symptoms with a variety of causes hundreds of millions of years ago?
Perhaps there were just a whole bunch of volcanic eruptions, which spewed hydrogen sulfide into the air, wiped out the ozone, and caused the anoxic effects the other way around? You get anoxia more than one way. It doesn't have to be a shutdown of the currents or a change in temperature at all.
If someone says "CO2 caused global warming of X degrees and killed everything off" they really are pulling it out of their ass. There are many a theory on the permian extinction, and there's zip for hard evidence to support that. They have no global record of the time period, and localized anoxia is common. We've got hundreds of places that are anoxic today, some of them recent results of over fertilizing, others that have been that way for centuries. Simple quirks in circulation that leave dead zones.
http://www.newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/last-time-carbon-dioxide-levels-111074.aspx
This one is pretty interesting. Measurements with an uncertainty of just 14 ppm
That's a lot better then the plant stomata.
And it gives support for the ice core data.
And it's by a nice female researcher too.
Although there are no graphs, that's a shame. But a free sciencemag account alleviates that problem (the statements in the text are the same as what you can conclude from the graphics).
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