What happened to Global Warming?
When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.
Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in
I'd like some global warming back...
That is quite surprising. How all the loose nukes in Russia after the fall never ended up going places is beyond me. There were ex-generals all over creation selling soviet arms off to fund their retirements.
Not sure how GW ended up as the pros and cons of nuclear proliferation...but what say we get back on topic...
To be fair, the original topic was about a swimming pool and the OP hasn't posted a serious post in a while...
He's got two on the last page...
No, 'to be fair' the OP was about global warming and so has the last 28-odd pages of responses.
Quoting this because I think this post pretty much sums up the perfect response to AGW proponents. Excellent post.
The only alternative that is ever acceptable is some vague plan to give a bunch of non-elected geniuses at some global organization (the IPCC, perhaps?) the authority to make changes to a set of global rules that we must all abide by as they see fit until they think the problem is solved. It's never as openly expressed as that, but it is what it boils down to.
And for their opening salvo they'll start out with a carbon tax system (which they control entirely, of course) where companies are charged based on their carbon footprint. Somehow, this magically solves the problem. And as a plus, they tell us, it even GENERATES economic activity in the form of a carbon allowance exchange! Woo hoo!
It's a tax... who cares. The governments need money, they tax everything and everyone. And governments lie about everything to everyone when it suits their purpose, that's nothing new either so who cares what they say, most of it is bullshit anyway.
It's a tax that would cost more in compliance than it would in actual tax. It's a tax that would come with exemptions for this or that country, this or that company, this or that person. It's a tax that would make Al Gore, as a major investor in the market they were going to use, the richest man on the planet.
Questionable motives, questionable outcomes, horrific compliance costs. Who cares should be anyone breathing, it will get a lot more expensive.
The first thing to consider when determining a method of taxation is how much will it cost to comply with the tax. Our idiot income tax fails horribly on this count because the tax code is thousands of pages long. The inventory tax fails because a business has to count their damned inventory.
Taxes are just like any other regulation, except theirs is regarding money being collected. The more complicated or onerous the collection, the more wasteful it is. Cap and Trade is a nightmare con job.
Taxes are never fair... well anyway we're living in a democracy and the next government may well undo all the work of the previous government. That's how it goes ... there's so much wasted effort but still it's one of the best systems around. I'm overall pretty happy to live in a democracy: because despite all the lying, the false promises and the bureaucracy, citizens are still taken care of pretty decently and are not suppressed and squeezed out like in most dictatorships.
Well anyway... let's hope our governments will do something sensible in the coming 100 years. There will be 25 governments (or more) in that period, 25 chances to get it right !
What's the "something" to which you are referring? We never seem to be able to get that from ANY of the AGW proponents here. How do you fix this problem (stipulating that it exists for argument sake)?
People have offered several options here. Nuclear, being one. Managing the problem until the evolution of technology solves it for us being another. But neither is good enough in your mind.
So what's the deal? What is the grand solution that fixes all of this? It's easy to shoot down other people's solutions when you never pin yourself down by proposing one of your own.
There are only 2 options, neither of which has a snowflake's chance in hell of being adopted.
1. ZPG.
2. Price [tax] ALL 'polluters' out of viability.
I DID say neither has a hope.
So it's a tax that is collected and applied to... what, exactly? Nothing specific. Nothing tangible that you could evaluate for success or failure.
The idea behind cap & trade or carbon taxes or whatever regulatory scheme you come up with relating to carbon footprint is to modify behavior. It's a behavioral tax designed to push people (or in this case corporations and governments) in a particular direction. Some behavioral taxes work, but most don't.
In order for a behavioral tax to even have a chance of success you have do a few things.
Any of the AGW carbon tax structures fail at least two of these.
That's by design because the carbon-tax scheme isn't really about changing behavior. It's about money. It's about making the carbon tax onerous enough to look like a real attempt at a solution but not so onerous as to doom it to failure in the world's legislative bodies. They want it to look real, but more importantly they want it to become law and take affect.
At the end of the day it's all really about finding new ways for unelected goons to legally get their hands on citizens' money to give it to their friends.
I've mentioned the German way, of investing heavily in solar panels.
Imo it's the only sensible way to solve the energy problem for the time being. It's costly, but solar panels won't blow up the world. I would also like to remove subsidies on the solar panels... just make them obligatory very gradually over a long period of time.
Imo it would also be better to place solar panels in the Sahara desert and to transport the electricity from there to Europe (and accept the loss because of the transport distance) or produce hydrogen fuel there and transport that to Europe via pipeline.
It's costly especially to make the first batch from raw resources, but if we recycle existing panels then we don't have to spend as much on the resources. Hopefully the next batch will be a bit cheaper.
I've some serious doubts on the nuclear fission option... it's possible but the waste products are too dangerous imo. Not by themselves, I'm not afraid of the waste products if they're handled properly, but in the hands of a madman they're pretty dangerous. So I would not like this option, I'd rather pay a bit more to avoid the extra risk of proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Hopefully after a long time, nuclear fusion becomes a viable source of energy. Who knows how long it will take before that happens... could be 20 years, or it could be 200 years. When that happens, we can ditch all the solar panels and enjoy cheap, clean energy again.
In the meantime, we won't blow up the world, and we won't cause a runaway greenhouse effects. It'll cost us extra money, but it's by no means an unsurmountable amount.
The CO2 levels increase fairly slowly, so we'll have about 100 years to make a transition from a fuel-based economy to an electricity-based economy.
We don't have to scrap perfectly fine coal plants, we'll just keep using them until they break down and simply don't build new ones... or occasionally new ones if necessary. Developing economies, which should have access to very cheap energy in the early stages of their economy, might be excempt from this, as far as I'm concerned they can have a phase I where they build coal plants. As long as they'll enter a phase II where they'll replace them gradually by solar arrays. Or maybe fusion, if that's available by that time.
Fair enough. I shouldn't have been so broad in my declaration that no one offered solutions, because I think you've mentioned those before (though going back through 29 pages of posts to verify scares me).
To go on record with these two solutions though: Thank god neither is viable. The enforcement mechanism for either one would be unpleasant.
So Germany, one of the richest countries on the planet with one of the healthiest economies on the planet, gets ~5% of their electricity from solar by investing huge amounts of money in the project and setting a timeline that goes out to the end of the century?
That's your solution to this world ending problem?
How exactly does this work in China, which consumes 8 times as much electricity at usage less than half per capita of Germany currently? When China catches Germany on a per capita energy usage basis it will be 16 times as much electricity with a large portion of that coming from coal fired plants.
This gets back to the fact that you CAN'T solve this "problem" within it's supposed immediacy window without world altering changes enforced by first world military power. It just can't happen. You're making my point for me with your supposed "solution". Any nation outside the richest in the world simply can't afford these solutions.
And that is before we discuss the fact that three of the top five carbon producers simply wouldn't comply (In order by total tonnage: China, US, EU, India, Russia). So you end up with the US and EU dramatically harming their own economies for no real gain or you are going to war to enforce a solution to a problem that people can't agree exists. Never mind the fact that there are no shit, people are dying right now problems we could work on if we are going to try to force the world to comply with our whims.
Yes...and option 1 is the lesser of 2 evils.
Neutering much of the world's population to enforce global ZPG would be relatively 'easy'.
Forcing civilization into 'clean alternatives' [for everything] or ELSE would be 'mildly difficult'...as Consumerist Capitalism would simply say 'no' and the poor old 'cannon fodder' third world would simply say 'no can do'.... so the solution would be liberal use of ....um .....'force' [aimed at both ends of the economic scale, and everyone in between].
And who would 'do' that?
Probably some bunch of little green men with a book titled 'To serve mankind' ....
Er...no-one can afford a solution - because no-one wants to disadvantage themselves in a global economy....hence the global willingness to deny the existence of the problem.
When you're on 'the express elevator to hell....going down' ....sit back, smile...and enjoy the ride...
Maybe we can at least agree on the music we listen to on the ride down?
Sure we can afford it.
If we use a time line of say 100 years, than this big problem can be subdivided into many smaller problems - 1% each year.
That should be doable...
About 100 years ago, people had their own coal furnaces at home. The coals were delivered by a horse/cart.
Nowadays that would seem impossible and inefficient, but people didn't know better. They didn't have electricity and gas pipes.
Still, people weren't really poor... sure the coal was more expensive than the gas we buy nowadays, but people had a nice life.
So I really don't get your problem. So what if energy from solar panels is more expensive than energy from a high-efficiency coal plant. We can pay for it, sure we can. I doubt it would be more expensive than the coal deliveries of the old days.
When you get to that point, you don't know any better. Everyone is used to it, and everyone pays the higher price. Does it really matter at that point? The money will keep flowing anyway... and even if you pay more for energy, you will also ask a higher salary so all is cool. And as long as there is no actual shortage in energy, things will just flow along.
The only difference will be, that more people will work in the energy part of the economy, which will drag the rest of the economy down a little... but given the many unemployed we have, I think there are enough reserves in workforce to keep everything flowing along nicely.
Does it really matter at that point? The money will keep flowing anyway... and even if you pay more for energy, you will also ask a higher salary so all is cool. And as long as there is no actual shortage in energy, things will just flow along.
What happens when "other people" run out of money? Flows between source and sink can only exist when the source has something to contribute to the flow.
Or, more succinctly, eventually you run out of other people's money.
But 1% a year, sure, that sounds great and doable. Easy even. Unless you realize that despite all of the money going into solar over the last two decades we've only gotten world energy supply from solar up to less than 0.5% of total energy consumed. And that ignores the fact that energy consumption is essentially expected to double in the next 30 years.
I'm on board. Let's take this immature, supremely expensive technology and force the entire world economy onto it. What could go wrong?
You still never bothered to explain HOW you are going to force the rest of the world to adopt your unicorns and rainbows solution. Forget the developing world for a moment and just tell me how you get the BRIC countries on board, because without them the whole exercise is pointless. The US and the EU generate roughly 1/3 of all CO2. BRIC generates roughly 1/3 of all CO2. The rest of the world makes up the last 3rd. BRIC is the low hanging fruit in that you can get the most bang from the least amount of countries going along. And really it's RIC, because Brazil doesn't generate all that much yet. How do you get RIC to go along? After that we can talk about forcing compliance to the 200 or so other countries in the world.
You don't, as long as you have enough people that are "free" to work on the problem.
The economy will only be damaged if there is:
1. a shortage of people
2. a shortage of resources.
Point 2 might be more of a problem, especially in the beginning. Later on, part of the supply problems can be alleviated by recycling.
Well you can't force anyone, however ... I'm counting on the common sense of people.
At the moment, maybe it's still a bit early as there are only about 50 years' worth of detailed data (and more years of less detailed data).
Give it a couple more decades, or maybe 50 years, then the effects will become more apparent and more people will be open for change, I hope. I would prefer to start sooner, but maybe that's a bit hard for the poorer countries.
However... we in the West can start already. We've created most of the CO2 that's added to the atmosphere, we could set an example and change course towards a cleaner world. This will also slow down the CO2 buildup. The less advanced economies can catch up later, once they get a bit richer and have enough money to spend.
This is completely untrue. Western economies run on the investment of capital flows which generate new projects and ultimately new capital. Basic economics shows that you are shrinking the flow of capital towards new projects and shifting it into a government bureaucracy. Even die-hard leftists generally admit that government management of capital and projects is less efficient than private sector management. They simply believe that the government projects are a necessity worth damaging the economy over.
That change in capital flow is damage to the economy in, ultimately, lost jobs, profits and eventually in whole lost projects. Even if you account for the supposed "Economic benefit" of this government bureaucracy, you will still end up with a net loss on economic output and government programs are never as efficient or productive as their backers claim when they are trying to sell the idea of those programs.
Do-gooderism again. Let's do something so we feel good.
Let's stipulate that the fact at the top of the Germany & Solar Power Wikipedia page is accurate and that Germany will produce 25% of its energy from solar by 2050. Let's further stipulate that the US and the rest of the EU decided to follow this shining beacon of leadership and match Germany photovoltaic for photovoltaic (which is likely impossible to do for the US, but we'll ignore that for now). Finally lets stipulate that shifting from any other energy source to solar creates a linear reduction in CO2 generation (it doesn't but for argument's sake we'll say it does).
Ignoring growth for the moment (using current day CO2 emissions by country data) that essentially means that a massively expensive and disruptive 25% shift to solar would save us.... ~8% of our current day levels. Using rough math: 1/3 of CO2 generation comes from EU & US combined. 1/3 * .25 = .083 or 8.3%.
Now, without getting into numbers and predictions of CO2 levels in 2050 we can use some deductive reasoning to see the effectiveness of this plan. The fastest growing producer of CO2 is China. Currently China's CO2 per capita sits at ~1/4 of that of the US and 1/5 to 1/4 that of the rest of the developed world. This means there is a ton of growth still to occur in China's CO2 production as Chinese energy consumption per capita catches the rest of the world. As this growth occurs, it will outpace growth from the EU and US (which have actually flatlined their CO2 production over the last few years). That means that BRIC 1/3 of global CO2 generation will grow to closer to 2/5 or 1/2 at the expense of the "Rest of the world"'s 1/3 and at the expense of the US/EU 1/3.
What's all this mean? That our 25% best-case-scenario linear reduction from getting all of the US and EU onto solar by 2050 actually nets us LESS THAN 8% decreased emissions (probably something closer than 6.25%, but that's a guess). So you are economically disadvantaging and hurting the quality of life potential for ~850 million people for a marginal decrease in CO2 production. And that's the best case scenario.
And all of this is in response to a problem that we have been repeatedly told over the last decade we have X years to solve where X is anything from 7 (Hi, Prince Charles) to 20 to 100. Even the best case you pushed above gets us no net savings (that is, there is still overall growth) and only an 8% decrease in US/EU output.
So again, I ask, what's your solution? How do you get the BRIC countries on board? I'm sorry, but "counting on the common sense of people" isn't a viable plan.
Pff, Kantok, you're being ridiculous. You're pulling all kinds of crap arguments from your ass to see how "economically wrong" it is.
Don't you get it ... this is NOT about economics alone. It's also about SURVIVAL.
OF COURSE it will cost money.
You prefer to go on like we are now and do nothing, nothing at all. You've already given up before we've started.
But well... give it a few more decades, maybe you'll change your mind by then.
At this time you don't believe there's going to be global warming, no matter how many arguments we're throwing at your. Your mind is set. For you, EVERYTHING is to expensive.
Well anyway I've said enough, I'm done here.
edit:
I don't get it, what's your point... to do nothing at all?
Perhaps we should go back to a more basic question. If we do nothing, like you suggest, don't you think we'll eventually reach a CO2 level of 2500 ppm in the atmosphere?
No one has said GW doesn't exist. We have said we're not convinced that humans are the major cause behind it. Big difference.
And my point wasn't to say "it's too expensive to solve". My point was to show that your best case scenario wouldn't actually solve the problem that you believe exists. Doing something isn't always better than doing nothing. If we really are in the end of days because of AGW and you can't actually solve the problem maybe it behooves you to NOT damage the biggest economies in the world because they, at least, have a chance of coming up with a solution. You're solution is no solution at all and its expensive and burdensome.
A simpler, less "pulling all kinds of crap arguments from my ass" question for you. If the problem is so immediate and so end-of-the-world bad and given that you've already admitted that your "Get everyone on solar" won't work because you're modeling after Germany who won't be there for 100 years and because you're relying on national common sense (which won't work, obviously) then why isn't nuclear an option?
Sure it has downsides that can be huge, but it combats AGW which is apparently our generations biggest existential threat and it's viable NOW.
Either AGW is a pull-out-all-the-stops problem that we need to solve ASAP or its not. If it is then nuclear is far and away your best option, but for some reason AGW proponents never want to go with nuclear power despite the fact that ALL other alternatives are no where near viability.
Any idea why? I have a thought why AGW as an industry is against nuclear, but I'm curious about your opinion since you've been in the AGW is the end-times camp in this thread and you've also expressed opinions against nuclear as an option.
Well ok... this discussion with you is completely pointless and I'm outta here.
Just wait a few decades until more data are gathered. Maybe it'll become clearer then. I think it's already pretty clear... by then it should be fucking obvous.
A few decades probably won't hurt much. Maybe it'll get a bit warmer here in the Netherlands.
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