What happened to Global Warming?
When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.
Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in
I'd like some global warming back...
This is absurd. Read the IPCC stuff.
Your statement directly contradicts what every first world national academy of science says. Your statement contradicts a massive numbers number of studies. You can repeat whatever nonsense you want, but in the end, you will always run up against this (which I already posted):
"As of 2007, when the American Association of Petroleum Geologists released a revised statement,[11] no scientific body of national or international standing rejected the findings of human-induced effects on climate change.[10][12]"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
Scientists overwhelmingly reject your statement.
How does this contradict what I wrote?
What % of current global warming is attributed to human activity?
SCOTUS extended/confirmed the applicability of the takings clause to states in 1897.
Reality gutted Stevens' Kelo majority opinion logic, such as it was, in due time. O'Connor got it right.
But as is all the rage these days, it's 'settled' law.
What does that actually matter? Global warming is attributed to human activity, and the scientific consensus is decided. If you want to argue against it, get some sources out.
There is too much I do not believe in Santa Claus; WHAT? SOURCE FOR THIS RIDICULOUS SUGGESTION? Source for Santa's not existence? Random Quote that "slightly" supports the possible existence of Santa -> Back and forth stuff.
What does it matter? Jesus Christ. Before we start thinking about making vast changes to our economies and way we live we better bloody have an idea of how much is due to human activity. I've already said, several times in this thread, that obviously humans have some effect. We produce CO2 and CO2 is a green house gas.
Are you suggesting that anyone here is arguing that humans have zero effect? Every time I jump up and down I affect the earth. The question is how substantial effect that is.
So far we have:
a) We don't know how much effect we have
and
We don't know how much it would cost for us to address whatever effect we're having.
Good job.
We are not. That is the point. We are letting Oil or corporate money dictate our politics. The question isn't what % is human made, it's what does our politicians do about it?
So if it's too costly we can just let the third world get shafted? Economy isn't an argument here either. If you want to be a selfish northern citizen, let the third world pay for your wealth, after all your wallet is more important right?
I said earlier in the thread, that 1st world will be the least affected by global warming. I stand by this, and you are welcome to prove me wrong.
Edit: Too many here thinks it's a matter if the world is ending or not. It isn't. But the consequences are very real, and worst case we could end up with WW3 from this mess. Best case, we recolonize the 3rd world and exploit their resources again, just with money instead of force. This is why this question is a UN question and not a country question.
This article depicts a particularly gloomy future/past. Read the chapter on "The Emergence of the Canfield Ocean". It's pretty interesting and scary.
http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2013/08/12/a-deadly-climb-from-glaciation-to-hothouse-why-the-permian-triassic-extinction-is-pertinent-to-human-warming/
Your question is an important one and yes, of course it does matter because if human activity was only responsible for a small percentage of global warming then that would be much better news. Unfortunately that isn't the case. You really should read the IPCC report summary at least (it seems most people in this thread haven't actually done so) if you are interested in the topic though as this is discussed. For example, in terms of surface temperatures only:
"It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together."
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf
The IPCC is fairly conservative here as other studies have concluded about 3/4 of climate change is man-made.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=three-quarters-of-climate
This article shows measurements about contribution of CO2 from volcanoes. All volcanoes on earth produce 0.2 billion tonnes of CO2. Humans produce about 30 billion tonnes of CO2 every year.
http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/volcanowatch/archive/2007/07_02_15.html
We humans are pretty awesome. By ourselves we're nothing, but together we dominate the world!
If you compare our yearly production of about 10 billion tonnes of Carbon to the total existing biomass on earth, we're also pretty awesome
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomass_(ecology)
In 56 years time, we will have dug up enough oil and coal to double the biomass on the entire planet (excluding bacteria).
Jesus... You are a nut job.
OK...we've been going along pretty nicely now for 27 pages .... without 'real' issues of name-calling.
Let's NOT start now ....
As I read through this thread, I'm reminded of this:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/87241447/OMG.jpg
We've already spent trillions over the last decades without anything to show for it, except genocides and extremely wealthy dictators.
Your optimistic albeit naive view is sweet. USA is near 17 trillion in debt which it can never ever repay , Europe is flat broke consisting of 3 'rich' nations and 24 poor ones, China has a more pragmatic view (mine) and anyway living on a huge economic bubble itself. There just isn't enough to go around for 2 let alone 7 billion people at the level we're accustomed to.
In this light, everything we spent to 'help' poverty there will actually cause poverty with us.
Ever seen how many homeless/starving are wandering the streets in any given western town? Don't you think we owe our own citizens more then some far away strangers which had 50 years to get their act together and still can't manage?
That image will be on my tomb stone.
Mine will be more Spike Milligan...
"I told you I was ill" ...
I intend to spend such money to clean up the mess we're creating, and to prevent an even bigger mess. It is in our own countries' interest, it's not for some far-away people, it's for our own future generations.
We produce over 10 billion tonnes of carbon a year. The biomass of the entire earth is about 500 billion tonnes of carbon (excluding bacteria), which means that every 50 years, we dig up the equivalent of all (visible) life on our planet from deep in the earth where it's been buried for millions of years and add this to the existing carbon cycle.
Such an act creates enormous stress on an existing system that so far was more or less stable. No system has spare capacity to deal with such an extra load.
There is no magical sinkhole where nature could put all that extra carbon. If nature had such spare capacity, it would've been used by now.
Found this website that lists the planets surface carbon reservoirs as such:Atmosphere: 750 GigatonnesOcean: 40000 GigatonnesBiosphere 610 GigatonnesSoil 1600 Gigatonneshttp://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange1/05_2.shtml
It's nice you want to spend so much money, luckily people with a bit more common sense don't. And if you're so worries about future generations make a bit less of them. Works much better.Quoting Frogboy, reply 651What % of current global warming is attributed to human activity?We produce over 10 billion tonnes of carbon a year. The biomass of the entire earth is about 500 billion tonnes of carbon (excluding bacteria), which means that every 50 years, we dig up the equivalent of all (visible) life on our planet from deep in the earth where it's been buried for millions of years and add this to the existing carbon cycle.Such an act creates enormous stress on an existing system that so far was more or less stable. No system has spare capacity to deal with such an extra load.There is no magical sinkhole where nature could put all that extra carbon. If nature had such spare capacity, it would've been used by now.
The total weight of CO2 is 3.000.000.000.000.000.000 tonnes. So 10.000.000.000.000 is a very tiny amount extra. And since CO2 is about 3% of total atmosphere our contribution comes to practically nothing in relation to nature's contribution. Furthermore given the logarithmic nature of CO2 presumed warming effect there is no way this is going to make a difference even if it could.
The weight of CO2 is about 3 times the weight of carbon.
I don't know where you get that total weight of carbon from, but I suppose you're referring to the total Carbon content of the entire earth. Most of that carbon is locked up in the earth's crust and probably won't reach the surface. While our contribution seems so insignificant with respect to the entire (static) carbon of the earth, it is particularly significant for the dynamic part of the carbon cycle that acts on a timescale of a thousand years.
Perhaps you should focus on that, instead of including carbon that has absolutely nothing to do with it.
And what I was trying to tell was, that we're basically adding enough carbon every 50 years to create 2x as many forests as we have now. There is simply not enough room on the earth's surface for that. And 2x as many plankton in the oceans. The oceans don't have enough of other minerals to make that possible. So what we are doing is, we are injecting large amounts of carbon and there is is no spare capacity to absorb all that on a short notice, it stays there for a very long time.
You can also look at history for that - after big extinction events where lots of carbon was injected into the atmosphere, the carbon wasn't taken out of the atmosphere within a few hundred years or so ... it stayed there for a very long time. If we reach a triassic situation where we've put so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that we've reached 2000 ppm or more, then it can stay there for millions of years. And why ... well because maybe much of life as we know it gets destroyed and there is not much life left to absorb all that carbon. Most life exists at the equator, if temperatures there are so high that plants and animals cannot live there anymore, a big part of the carbon cycle is destroyed. If oceanic temperatures near the equator would reach 40 degrees celcius, there are no fish left that can live there. Life moves towards the poles, towards a tiny refuge for life. Most of the earth will be dead and will not contribute to the carbon cycle anymore. Or at least, much less than it does now.
http://guardianlv.com/2013/10/nuclear-fusion-achieves-massive-energy-breakthrough/
One bit of good news. first net-positive fusion reaction this week.
We need to try racing to get this practical- when we do this, the environmental problems will peak and then start to diminish, not to mention the vast economic benefits.
Our best hope for reversing climate change or mitigating the impacts is a technological solution. (I agree with the science, not the politics- especially since the developing world won't follow our lead because they view it as hypocritical)
It was only net positive in a very narrow way. It didn't include the waste power of the laser beams.
It's like shoving the dirt under the carpet and telling everyone how neat and tidy your house is.
Barring some mind blowing breakthrough, fusion is not a practical or cost effective solution for the near future. There are existing technologies to make safe nuclear plants, we just have to implement them rather than using old designs that generate tons of nuclear waste to just sit around waiting to be mismanaged or in the case of Fukushima, have both mismanagement and a natural disaster. Something like Transatomic's proposed modern salt reactor that actually consumes EXISTING nuclear waste and by design, can not melt down.
http://transatomicpower.com/products.phpYou will never beat fossil fuels by trying to regulate people. We get better at finding and extracting fossil fuel faster than we consume it. When oil and coal get scarce, we'll just burn methane. The only way to get off fossil fuel is to price it out of the game and make it uneconomical to extract compared to some other cheaper energy source.
You mean....like taxing it at least as much as the rest of the world does...and thus help subsidise alternatives?
Yep....while the world really seems to love the idea of a carbon tax.....
....not.
No, I was thinking more along the lines of future, safer nuclear plants that were cost effective enough to build that it no longer made sense to dig up coal and build new coal fire plants. Transportation fuels will be popular for a very long time. There is no getting around current infrastructure, so plenty of time to enjoy the Arckaringa Basin.
I'm not inclined to bother with the AGW debate, as no one here is changing their opinion...
I will however tackle a discussion about alternative energy...
Nuclear accidents are a problem...while rare, they are "big" and so when they do happen it's a big boondoggle...the uranium mining process is also a problem because it is a highly volumetric type of mining and all that radioactive rock is now just laying on the surface...
Coal power is dangerous too though...you got a lot of people getting injured or dying in the coal plants themselves or in the coal mines...then you have to factor in the health costs of the pollution...
I'm not going to quote specific numbers because, quite frankly, the research is often biased and dubious and I don't have the patience to play the game of "your sources are all part of an extremist conspiracy"...as it stands, I'm currently of the position that both are about equally deadly/problematic...the main difference really is that nuclear power gets more of a bad rap because it's deaths are more publicized...we will all hear about the nuclear incident of the decade, but not about the hundreds of individual deaths or injuries that occurred in coal power plants over a long period of time...in short, nuclear power is already safe enough...
Nuclear power is also already cost effective enough...to be fair, it does depend on where you live -- coal rich nations like the US and China are going to be less inclined to switch to nuclear...nevertheless, the costs per kilowatthour are comparable for coal and for nuclear...the real issue is not the cost to produce electricity, but the upfront investment needed to build the plant in the first place...nuclear power plants are riskier investments simply because they are more expensive and take longer to payoff...even if nuclear power plants produced slightly cheaper electricity, you'd still see a lot of coal simply because coal plants are less risky from a financial standpoint (ie they are better in the short run)...
In a way, the reason why nuclear power is avoided is the same reason most people don't buy electric cars...even though in the long run it may be the same cost, the upfront cost is the deciding factor...
Of course, the Exxon Valdez was just a romp in the park...
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