What happened to Global Warming?
When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.
Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in
I'd like some global warming back...
You assume too much, None of my posts have anything to do with denying anything other than bad science. I have never even said whether Global Warming is real or not. Because it was not part of any discussion I have had. I have talked about AGW. Which is a supposition without substantiation at this point. But I have not even denied that. I have merely pointed out the science is not settled. If that is "denial" to you, then please return when you learn how science works.
Very cool about the land.
I think you may be shocked to find out that the trees, birds and other graceful creatures will do just fine even if the temperature goes up. There seems to be a lot of misunderstanding on what global warming would do to the planet. Warmer != Dryer. Warmer != Bad for life. Warmer (or Colder) just means environments could change.
So are you saying you don't own a car at all? It sounds like you're saying you still own a car. If so, I assume it's electric? Which one is it?
Science is never settled. That's what makes it science. You replace one theory with a better one, when new scientific work with evidence is presented. Until then you accept the consensus, and that is for Global warming, as have been said earlier in this thread.
Not accepting the consensus is working against it, all out denialer or not, especially in a subject as critical as this.
We have all accepted the consensus that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and that human activities have warmed the planet "to some unspecified extent".
What is unfortunately not the consensus, except for the indoctrinated, is that human activity is the main driver behind global warming.
Round and round we go
Why has the earth not warmed in the last 15 years if human carbon output is the main driver of global warming?
Which consensus? That CO2 is a green house gas and as a result we humans, producers of CO2, are having some affect on the environment? Sure. I also accept that if I jump up and down that the kinetic energy causes the earth to wobble slightly.
But do I accept that humans are the primary cause of temperature fluctuations? No. No I don't. Does that mean I'm working against it? Does my lack of faith mean that I'm damaging cosmic forces? I produce more energy than I consume and it's all from solar and geothermal.
If you accept the consensus, what are you doing about it?
AGW isn't a theory. It's a hypothesis. We have observed a long-term warming trend and a hypothesis has been made that it's caused by humans burning fossil fuels resulting in an increase in green house gasses in the air. That's the hypothesis. But that's not a theory. It hasn't been tested and the fact that atmospheric temperatures aren't increasing despite the steady increase of CO2 doesn't bode well for the validity of the hypothesis.
And you say the subject is "critical". It is? Compared to what? And if you deem it critical, I ask again, what you are personally doing about it?
Honestly, is there any answer that anyone can give you aside from "I bought an electric car and installed solar panels on my home" that will satisfy you? Will it be a prerequisite for anyone who opposes your POV to declare that they have spent as much or more than you before you would be willing to engage them? I'm just curious.
The article quoted by Dr Guy has one hypothesis. Read it if you want.
You are not the problem. Governments are. (your government is a part of a very suspicious and small no signer group in UN treaties against global warming) Also, humans are not the primary cause of global warming, it is more complex than that, however that does not mean our influence on global warming is negligible. Read the science. Sun etc. varies global temperature than anything we do, but the small increases we contribute is still critical for the third world. (Seychelles is on the road to total destruction atm. ) It is very interesting how most of the world agree on global warming, except the US and a few other countries. As you have said, politics is not accepted here, but the money influence in US politics contributes greatly to your country's media coverage of this topic and subsequent critical thinking of science.
Quoting Frogboy, reply 630If you accept the consensus, what are you doing about it?
My society and government is not the problem here. I'm actually considering if force is needed to solve this problem. At the moment we still have time for diplomatic solutions, but force might be needed later in this century. The question if war against the first world is acceptable when global warming hurts the third world because of first world pollution is a highly interesting subject on it's own.
Your father waited in bread lines for food because the government was run by a bunch of fascist fucktards that spent other peoples money paying twice the going wage for them to do make-work. The result of their idiocy was the economic collapse of the bread belt and the south in general, which had been doing fantastic.
There wouldn't have been bread lines if people too stupid to tie their own shoes hadn't had a knee jerk reaction to a temporary market fluctuation. They were also primarily established by charity, not federal spending. Al Capone even ran one.
The answer to that question is very easy to find if you have actually read any of the summaries on global warming. It's also come up a few times in this thread. The total heat added to our global system has not decreased or paused at all. If you want to cherry pick certain indicators (air temperature) because you come to the table with pre-existing beliefs you'd like to see reinforced, then yes, you'll find what you're looking for. Global warming has not paused or stopped though. Where do you think all this increased total heat is going if surface temperatures have not risen as much in the past 15 years? They have still risen btw, just at a slower pace - so they have basically stalled but still at record temperatures. Assuming that the data is referring to surface temperatures only instead of the total amount of heat in the system is a favourite fallacy of denialists.
From what I gather from the reports they have new theories and hypothesis that that have to incorporate into their models. So yes, they are saying the oceans are absorbing the excess heat that "should" have occurred but they didn't anticipate this in their original modelling.
One of your scientists has a good gut feel though it will be 3.6F warmer by the end of this century... solid weather forecasting there.
Consensus does not belong in science. period. It was not a better theory of phlogiston that came up with the concept of air being composed of gases. It was going against the supposed consensus.
I frankly do not care what the 'consensus' says. I only care what the science says. And going against the 'consensus' IS the definition of science. Not denial.
Ask yourself 2 questions:
#1 Has the null hypothesis been disproven?#2 Is the current supposition of AGW falsifiable?
If the answer to either or both is no, then I am not in denial of anything. But many are denying science. Because that is basic science.
@Zombie
The oceans absorb around 90% of the heat in our planetary system. This is increased heat that is occurring - not "should have occurred". Predicting future effects with models and what the consequences could be and what should be done about it are all different topics to me. The only thing I'm trying to clarify is that global warming is occurring due to our activity - that is what the mountain of evidence and data shows - and that the effects can already be seen in certain places. I honestly don't understand how someone without an agenda or without an ideological filter who honestly investigates and reads up on this can come to any other conclusion. What the best course of action is and what the results and trends will be hundreds of years from now are less precise of course and are theories - or best guesses based on current data - but the basic facts and data and evidence we have on what has gone on from the industrial revolution to the present day are unequivocal.
@ Dr. Guy
Yes, the null hypothesis has been rejected. There is a relationship between human activity and global warming. I'm still waiting for this substantial amount of counter-evidence you mentioned though...
Man, you do like your cherry picking.
There are a lot of ways of measuring things like "per capita income". I used a pretty imprecise term. You, not surprisingly, picked out the on method that works for your argument, but generally, the US doesn't rate as highly. Taking your advice and spending much less than 30 seconds with google turns up the following, which generally put the US fairly low (less so on the last one):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(nominal,_Atlas_method)_per_capita
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(PPP)_per_capita
I believe that most socialized medical systems are more successful than the US's by pretty much any metric, unless you do some sort of crazy metric like only selecting insured people.
@ Kantok
Speaking as a 'Canadian' myself, many 'Canadians' are actually for a two-tier system implemented here by which the 'socialist healthcare' we are all so proud of still remains but where a second for-pay system exists in tandem so that we no longer need to travel in order to see those (often former Canadian-trained and then left) specialists in other countries. I think the question the world has for the US is why the health (even basic, basic health) of every citizen seems so worthless to the US. If other countries have and are entertaining the idea of having a two-tier system what makes the same an impossibility in the US? The individual US citizen that's who.........not in fact 'the government' etc. etc.
Sorry for my second off-topic post in this thread I really should leave forever.
Back to the regular scheduled programming........'Global' Warming..........hehe
Uh yea.
If someone says that they are willing to pay more to help the environment then I think it's pretty reasonable to ask what they've done.
I'm sorry if asking if people have put their money where their mouth is makes you uncomfortable.
You just gave a list of sources that list the United Stats at the top of the lists. If you take away countries who have populations less than individual US state you end up with the US at the top (i.e. What is good for Qatar or Singapore is not necessarily good for the world).
So which countries with a reasonable population (i.e. more than say 1/10th the population of the United States) should the US emulate? You're the one who made the original claim that there were plenty of countries that had generous systems that were doing a lot better. So putting aside city states, which countries would that be?
I don't see France, UK, Germany, Italy, Japan, China, topping those lists. So can you be a bit more specific? Which country did you have in mind that could be honestly compared to the United States in terms of raw demographics? I.e. a country that isn't essentially a city state.
It doesn't make me uncomfortable.
It just seems as if there is a litmus test for you that goes beyond an individual doing what they can to lessen their energy usage. You make constant mention of solar arrays and e cars, both of which are expensive. It seems to me as if someone doesn't spend more than five figures to lessen their energy impact, you would tend to dismiss them, which is why you keep asking them if they have done as much as you.
It's not a contest. Do you seriously think it's unreasonable to ask someone using words like "This is a critical issue" and "We should have electric cars" and "I would be willing to pay more to help stop AGW" whether they have, you know, actually done something?
Electric cars aren't that expensive. Especially for someone who has explicitly listed that we should have electric cars and that this is a critical issue. Ok, we should have electric cars and it's a critical issue. Do you have an electric car? No? Why not?
If the answer is "it's expensive" then what they REALLY mean, like on so many other issues, is that they are in favor of someone else buying them a car.
If you guys want to look at how the US compares for the "common man" vs other countries, you should probably look at Median PPP (purchasing power) by country. The US is #4 on the list. It is lower in terms of actual income, but purchasing power is a better indicator because many goods and services are quite inexpensive in the US compared to other countries, and by taking the median you are seeing a better representation how most of the population vs being shifted up by the wealthiest individuals.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_household_income
And very, very few people who try to function in today's society can claim they don't contribute to global warming. You would pretty much have to use a bicycle as your primary form of transportation, never use jets for travel, eat locally grown foods, and make use of recyclable / reusable goods at every opportunity. There are people who strive for this, and kudos to them, but it just isn't practical or feasible for most of us. I give props to anyone who at least tries by using electric vehicles and solar power / wind powered homes, thereby disengaging themselves from the coal powered grid as much as possible. While I do believe in AGW, I also find it hypocritical when proponents of a "greener" lifestyle are found to have huge carbon footprints in their day to day lives.....even if they buy carbon offsets with their money, it still isn't the same as trying to lead by example.
I already said progressive northern European countries, which would be stuff like Norway, Sweden, etc.
This is absurd. Read the IPCC stuff.
Your statement directly contradicts what every first world national academy of science says. Your statement contradicts a massive numbers number of studies. You can repeat whatever nonsense you want, but in the end, you will always run up against this (which I already posted):
"As of 2007, when the American Association of Petroleum Geologists released a revised statement,[11] no scientific body of national or international standing rejected the findings of human-induced effects on climate change.[10][12]"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
Scientists overwhelmingly reject your statement.
At a reasonable level of certainty, yeah, the null hypothesis can be rejected. This is exactly what the IPCC report claims. Read it.
Since models make specific predictions, #2 is obvious.
While it's true that comparing a place with a population more on the scale of a city to the US isn't a good idea, you should primarily look at the economies of the countries who's healthcare models you're so proud of.
Norway is an excellent example of socialized medicine. A fantastic standard of living, loads of money. They're on the extreme end of socialist as well, people list them frequently as putting the lie to the claims that socialism destroys economic prosperity.
Petroleum export revenues, just exports, are 20% of their GDP. That's state owned petroleum for the most part. They have a fund they've been building that could pay most of our deficit. They have a population of five million.
Five million people, 600+ billion in savings from their natural wealth and a resource based economy on par with the gulf oil states.
And they get free university - young adults with higher education skills entering the workforce without a mountain of debt can only be a good thing. Some of the highest taxes in the world are the only downside to all this.
I own a dirty old Mercedes... it's totally not clean. When I bought it 4 years ago I thought... what the heck, it's a cool car and I haven't owned a car most of my life, I have some polluting to catch up to That kind of dumb reasoning that most people do. But I also had some major losses in the stock market at the time, the stock market had crashed completely ... so I didn't want to spend too much money on a car since I had lost most of my money at the time (it took a while for the stock market to recover before I regained most of the money again...).
Again, you prove that you are not a scientist, you are just a tool for the republican party in the US, or denialists globally sorry. I retract my apology. Feel free to PM me if you disagree.
If you're looking for a country that's 'similar' to the US....AND has a viable Health system 'for all' there IS Australia.
It has a tiny population [comparatively] in a country the size of the US [close enough] whose infrastructure has to be taxed from a far smaller workforce...eg we have more road per car than anywhere on the planet - to maintain....yet actually DO AFFORD to have public healthcare...
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