What happened to Global Warming?
When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.
Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in
I'd like some global warming back...
According to Futurama, Global Warming should be changed by Nuclear Winter. Look around! Zombies everywhere. We are the Last of Us! )))
Good gosh no.....it's 'scientific research'.....[that just happens to look like MasterChef]....
Still tastes like chicken.
yeah, a netimporter of nuclear energy. Glad i live in france were electricity still costs 9 eurocent kw/h including tax. Which will only rise in the 'future' due to political reasons, not functional reasons. What is it now in the great green netherlands? 25-35 cents? Glad you are so well off you can afford the cost. I prefer to spent it on me instead of rinkydink windfarms.
The most idiotic scheme ever. Wind. You only get subsidies for building them, not for maintaining them. So the incentive is to build more of mediocre quality (cheaper) who cares if they crap out withing 10 years. You just build a whole new one and pocket some more free money.
Econuts, large on ideals, short on common sense.
To lend a little further perspective - this is kinda neat.
I kinda agree with that.
But people use that as an excuse to do absolutely nothing.
I think that is wrong too.
When handled properly and if we decide to go for it 100%, then we can do anything...
Meanwhile, the IPCC gets ready to backpedal.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/new-report-undercuts-global-warming-alarmists/article/2536366
So easy to point out flaws in hugely complex issues. I mean we have trouble enough predicting the weather for more than a week, and you expect perfect predictions in something that takes into account ALL the weather on earth in a period over years?
Yeah, you are buying into politics not science if you think the above article means anything other than what it quotes. That a prediction was slightly wrong, it doesn't even say the exact numbers. You are essentially trusting a journalist with all the source checking, I mean that never goes wrong? Journalists are the peak of ethics, and they only care about facts right?
Kinda Neat? it is awesome. On a tangent, in one Episode of Star Trek, Miri, the Enterprise finds another world that is almost exactly like Earth. I mean down to the continents! But looking at his recreations of Continental drift, I do not see how anyone would recognize Earth from a couple hundred million years ago!
Thanks for the link. Fascinating read.
If we cannot predict the weather for the next week, why would anyone think we can predict the climate over the next 100 years?
The process of science is indeed pointing out the flaws in the conjectures of others. Without that process, we would still believe the earth was flat, fire was an element, and ether was what surrounded us and allowed us to breath.
The prediction was slightly wrong, in that our slightly lower temperatures are supposed to have been slightly higher.
Slight? Indeed. Slightly wrong? Someone mistook spring for the apocalypse and now that we've started back into fall, they're still trying to explain why we haven't all burned to death and it's just taking longer than they thought. In the mean time, that giant ball of fire in the sky keeps running the show.
When people insist that any result confirms the theory it's not a theory. It's a religion.
You can still predict that July will be hotter than December even if you can't predict what the exact temperature is on Dec 4th. Which is essentially what is the question here. Average temperatures are rising overall, that is a fact. Articles like the above question exact predictions similar to weather predictions, while not paying attention to the overall picture that is what the topic is really about. A perfect example of deflection and a nice reminder to what can happen if you politicize science. Politicians try to sell you exact assurances, science tries to find the best explanation. The two does not mix very well
I would posit that the argument you advance is the deflection here. Reality has failed to validate the models which predicted, based on the devout belief that rising atmospheric CO2 would force an acceleration of global warming via the greenhouse effect, that average temperatures would be much higher than they have turned out to be.
The 'point' is that the data do not support the anthropogenicity of whatever degree of global warming has occurred since the 'consensus' was arrived at. Further that, in this case, their prediction that 'July will be hotter than December' turned out to be wrong. The current climate change models have proven not to be the 'best explanation' for reality. If what exists is not explained by a theory, the theory can't be expected to reliably predict anything.
I would agree that politics and science don't usually mix well (unless you decide to go to the moon and back) - politicians generally leverage things, not just science, to their advantage.
You are the one deflecting here. The global temperature is rising. The degree, reasons etc. is what you are trying to argue. It's like me saying, well the CO2 levels are approaching levels not seen since Dinosaur times, and we know what happened to them.. so we are all going to die if it rises higher. (totally irrelevant, and barely scratching the surface of a complex issue, yet the fact is true)
You seem to want science to predict the future for you. If I predict there will be cold temperatures in December, with a model for approximate degrees, and my prediction is off by a couple of degrees, yet it was still a cold month, does that totally disprove it since my prediction wasn't 100%? That is what you are saying. Don't expect science to predict the future, all predictions are just approximate, they will never be 100% correct, but the conclusions you draw from them usually are.
"The devil is in the details"
Yep, we are in full agreement here. Don't trust politicians and their media allies to explain things for you, go look for yourself, and be very aware and maybe a bit afraid of the fact that these two factors are essentially deciding your kids future. We have been blessed with the internet for a reason, and that is not to help media do the job for you.
How do you know this is true?
How do you know rising CO2 levels caused Dinosaurs to dissapear?
How do you know rising CO2 levels are responsible for the current 1.3F rise in temperature?
None of these things are actually "known" though. They are theorized as the possible cause as the rise in temperature appears to coincide with the rise in CO2 levels. The climate system is unfortunately much more complex than this which is being shown again as people are finally being forced to defend global warming "science".
Actually no. The average has not increased in the last 17 years, and hence why the IPCC is scrambling to explain it (they have not been able to so far).
But you are correct, we can say that July will be hotter than December (at least here, Australia would tell you something different). But can we say how much? That is another stumbling block. The "proclaimed" rise in temperatures is being measured in hundredths of a degree. One of the rules of math is that you cannot proclaim a significance higher than the lowest number of points of accuracy. Since temperature is measured in (at best) tenths of a degree, any proclamation that the temperature went up x/100s of a degree is nonsense.
So the hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) was based on a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius over 15 years (roughly - 1983 to 1998). Yet now we have exceeded that length of time with no measurable warming.
I am not one to say that there is no AGW. But I am not one to say there is. 30 years in the climate of this planet is nothing. And so far, we have had over 13 episodes in the past 120 years where the temperature has risen by 1.5 degrees over a similar time frame (120 years being the extent of measured temperatures in a dispersed enough area of the world for some to then create an "average" for the globe). 12 of those occurred before 1940. 1940 is the supposed start of the "global" industrial age (I have not researched why that year is so important other than most of the world was immersed in war at that time).
So we have at least 12 periods in the past 120 years when the temperature went up as much as it did since the concentration of CO2 started rising. I have more questions than anyone has answers. But I would wait to bet the house on those odds.
Firstly I said: CO2 levels are approaching levels not seen since Dinosaur times: Source: http://www.biocab.org/Geological_Timescale.jpg We are not there yet, but we are approaching it. Notice the sharp increase in CO2 after being stable the last million years.
Secondly, the Dinosaurs all died out, who is to say CO2 levels were innocent in the extinction? Do you have any proof of this? Models? Evidence? (see, your argument against you, no fun right? Either way, this was not meant to be a serious argument.)
Thirdly, it is irrelevant, as I perfectly explained earlier. We are not looking at your cabin temperatures last summer, we are looking at a global temperature increase since the industrial revolution. If the Industrial Revolution is not the culprit, who is? I would love for you to prove me wrong on this, and if you manage it, you will get the nobel price for sure.
Excellent, you have proven that global warming does not follow a linear line. The point still stands. Look at the bigger picture than the last couple of decades. As I said earlier, it's complicated. If you look at the graph at the top of my post, you can see we may have turned a cooling period around with the industrial revolution, what do you think will happen when we are supposed to have a natural rise in temperatures, as well as the "possible" human made rise?
Edit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/global-land-ocean-mntp-anom/201201-201212.png found this. Notice the plateau in the 40's to 60's? This is not new, and we will very likely expect a sudden rise in global temperatures the coming decades if you believe that graph. Will that persuade you if it happens? Also notice that we haven't had a real decrease in global temperature since the 40's. That's a really long time for it just keep climbing or "plateauing". In 2040 if we keep going as we have, we will have had a steady increase in global temperature over 100 years, and that is probably unprecedented.
This is a really good 3 part overview that touches on just how complex the factors involved in global warming are:
http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/08/28/how-would-you-figure-out-whether-global-warming-is-real-part-1/
Links to parts 2 and 3 at the bottom of part 1.
Most of the heat increase over the decades has gone into the oceans, as would be expected given how deep they are and how much area of the planet they cover.
In the interests of fairness, there is also a Climate Change report coming out from the Heartland Institute that refutes "alarmists" notions that AGW is occurring.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/09/22/your-move-global-warming-alarmists-science-has-exposed-your-unwarranted-hysteria/
Don't be concerned though that the Heartland Institute also advocates that second hand smoke poses no health risks - I'm sure they are neutral and unbiased and above any kind of data cherry picking (lol):
http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2008/07/01/scientific-evidence-shows-secondhand-smoke-no-danger
Interesting blog! New gif for global temperature rise.
http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/files/2013/08/Escalator_2012_1024.gif However, I would actually question this gif motives as well. Notice how he places his line below the "skeptic" average at the start, and above the average at the end to make it appear more "climby" than it really is. Fun gif to show difference of perception, and how stuff is twisted to politicize it as well.
This is an appeal to fear, not an argument, based on an unproven premise. A significant human-caused rise has yet to be confirmed, even accepting that we make some difference in global temperature. However, it's not yet clear whether that difference is positive or negative with respect to global temperature. We've seen record regrowth of the Arctic ice sheet this summer, in the face of CO2 'approaching levels not seen since Dinosaur times'.
And it's funny you would argue that the absence of evidence of CO2 contributing to dinosaur extinction 65 million years ago somehow supports your contentions.
You also seem to be claiming that the models having missed the mark by 'only a few degrees' is somehow trivial. Yet the people evangelizing the models based their calls to action on the alleged major impact of even trivial changes in average temperature.
Do you have any proof it caused their extinction?
Also, how do you explain the ice cores (Vostock and Antarctica) that shows historically temperature rising followed by CO2 going up (there is a simple explanation, but the rising CO2 did NOT re-ignite the warming). A lag of 800 years?
No, your point does not. I was not commenting on whether the relationship was logarithmic, hyperbolic, or linear. No change is no change. So the temperatures are NOT going up (does not mean they will not again), yet CO2 is still increasing (by 2ppm per year). In medical terms, they say the patient has "flat lined".
And p.s. There was no "plateau" in the 40s-60s. There was actually a slight decline in global temperatures. Better get your glasses out.
However, if you want me to examine your model of AGW, I will be glad to. No models created to date have been able to predict or explain the 17 year "plateau". That is not me talking. That is Phil Jones (you do know of him, correct?) and the IPCC.
It's interesting what scientists learn over time.
Like the article states Mercury does NOT have an atmosphere. He should probably recheck his facts.
Really? You're going to reference the Arctic ice "record regrowth"? 2013 was not as bad as 2012 (2012 was the lowest point ever so it's not hard to beat) but 2013 lows are still the 6th lowest extents in recorded history. It's overall still very much a downward trend over decades - unless you are somehow arguing that this 2013 rebound is magically the start of a new upward trend. One year does not magically reverse ongoing trends over generations. Why would you uncritically accept a single year out of context like this as somehow disproving anything? It reminds me of the way Creationists or ID people try to pick at little gaps in the fossil record or something else small and out of context as somehow disproving the entire theory of evolution...and yes, AGW is clearly a theory - but it's the one that makes the most sense with what we currently know.
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