UFO's and Aliens. Do they exist? Do you think there's even a chance that there is other intelligent life in our galaxy or universe or do you think we Humans are the only intelligent life in all of creation? These are questions that we as a species, man-kind, have asked since as far as our recorded history goes back. Even Ancient man, with no knowledge of modern science or modern understanding of what "Space" was, would look to the night sky at the twinkling stars and wonder...."Are we truly alone?".
Honestly, I've always thought aliens existed. Whether or not they've actually visited this planet at any point in it's history I don't know and I don't think anyone can truly say one way or the other and have definitive proof. Of course there is probably just as much "proof" that aliens don't exist as there is that they do, but, at least we are now discovering for a Fact that there is or was "some form" of life in the universe outside of the planet Earth. We know from microscopic fossils in martian rocks that at one point millions of years ago there was at the very least Single Celled life on Mars. We found this out back in the late 90's. Didn't hear about it? That's not surprising since I only found out about it because of a 10 second mention on ABC's "World News Tonight" back in 96-97. Today how-ever you can research this for your-self as many papers and articles have been published on the subject. A quick Google Search will lead you to many results such as these:
Meteorite Yields Evidence of Primitive Life on Early Mars Source: www.solarviews.com Article from 1997
Fossil Life in Martian Rock Found in Antarctica ? Source: http://spider.seds.org/spider/Mars/Marsrock/marsrocks.html Article from 1996
Proof of Life in Three Martian Rocks May Come This Year Source: www.popsci.com Article from 2010
This is enough in my eyes to call it "Definitive Proof", they're just waiting on the specific results so they can say it's a fact without a shadow of a doubt, and I respect them for waiting and taking it slow and doing the science the right way. A claim such as this can't be rushed no matter how apparent the results of any "proof" might be.
While I do believe in intelligent life outside of this planet, I'm still a skeptic. I mostly believe in what I can see with my own eyes. What I can feel with my own two hands. I think it's important for anyone doing any Serious research into the matter to be a skeptic and to try to dis-prove or debunk as many fakes as possible. With our advances in computers and video editing and special effects it's easier than ever for the nut-jobs and conspiracy wackos out there to make convincing "proof" on their own and it's people like those that bring a bad ilk to any Serious research into the matter. Sadly there are a lot of fakers and crazy people out there working in both directions of the debate. There are people who make fake videos of UFO's and try to pass them off as real and there are various groups and religious zealots who try to prove that Everything is fake and say that None Of It is real and anyone who believes there is intelligent non-human life in the universe is a moron or a liar.
Worse yet there are many people out there who are terrified of the idea that aliens may exist. Some people are so closed minded that no matter what scientific advances we may make or what we may learn about the universe and life its-self, they will Never believe that alien life exists even if aliens were to land on the White-House lawn and announce to the world that they are real and that they are here. Even if that did happen (which of course it hasn't) there would be a certain percentage of the world's population that would say it was faked, even if the proof was pointing a particle cannon at their head.
I'm about to tell a story I've never told publicly before. I've never told it honestly because I'm a little afraid of what it may make people think in regards to my sanity. If you choose to believe it, that's great. If you choose not to believe it, that's great too. One thing I do know for sure, I know what I saw...
Note: Before I get into the story, keep in mind that I was a kid. I was 13 or 14 years old. I had never done any drugs, didn't smoke cigs, didn't drink, and I wasn't a wild kid with a crazy imagination. I never had an "imaginary friend" at any point and even when I did grow up and start "partying" I've never had a hallucination nor have I ever saw something that I wasn't completely sure was right in front of me (magic tricks aside).
It was the summer of the year that my family moved from Deland in Volusia County out to Lake Mack in Lake County, Florida. I had to go to summer school that year to make up a failing English grade in 7th grade English (long story but basically I got screwed out of the grade I should have received). Because there weren't that many kids in my area going to summer school that year all of us in the neighborhood had to meet down at the corner store which was the only bus-stop for summer school that year. School started at 7 A.M. and was all the way in Leesburg (almost an hour from my house). We kids had to be at the bus-stop at 5:30 A.M. because it was a very long ride all the way to Leesburg from where we were in Lake Mack and there were other students to stop and pick up along the way. I was walking to the bus-stop down a long winding road. It was a normal paved road and there were houses and trailers all over the place. Even though the road was deserted because it was so early in the morning it was still a populated and crowded neighborhood. As I was rounding the bends I noticed all the tall pine trees were swaying back and forth pretty hard like there was about to be a storm, but oddly enough I couldn't feel any wind. I'm not going to say there wasn't any wind, there very well could have been and the currents were too high off the ground for me to feel the wind, but, I didn't actually feel any wind.
I was looking up at the tops of the pine trees when a very Large Triangle came out over the trees. At first I thought it was a helicopter and maybe I was seeing the lights on the ends of the rotors but then two things hit me. First, I couldn't hear Any noise. None what-so-ever. Second, if the lights I saw were on the ends of the rotors they would have been spinning very fast and not been stationary. They were also way too far apart to be rotor blades. The object was at least 3 times as high up as the trees, maybe 4 times as high, and it...was....Massive. I'm talking like the size of a Boeing 747, Massive. I quickly realized there was no way in hell that it was a helicopter. There were no flashing lights on it. They were on steadily. There were four lights in total. One larger light in the center and three more slightly smaller lights, one at each tip of the Triangle. I had seen plenty of helicopters up close, even military ones as I've lived close to Deland Airport for most of my time in Deland and seen plenty of air shows and air planes and helicopters first hand. I've seen both the Apache and the smaller Cobra Attack Chopper that it shares it's design with. It's also of note that out in Lake Mack in Lake County we were technically on the out-skirts of the Ocala National Forrest. The army had a bombing range on the far edge of the forrest and at least 3 or 4 times a year you could hear the bombs being dropped and all you had to do was go outside when the planes or helicopters were flying over-head to see what vehicles were doing the bombing. Lake Mack was right underneath their flight path for a long time even though the bombing range its-self was a good 60 or 70 miles away.
Anyway, when I realized just what it was I was looking at....well, I'm not ashamed to admit I got scared and started running for the bus-stop. I didn't look back and I didn't slow down. When I finally got to the point where I could see the store and see the other kids through the darkness standing under the street light at the store I stopped running. I didn't want the other kids thinking I was too scared to walk to the bus-stop in the dark, which I wasn't. I've never been afraid of the dark, not even as a small child. At that point when I stopped running I took the time to look behind me. Not surprisingly I didn't see anything. Nothing. No ship, no Triangle, no wind, and the trees were as still as could be since there was no wind.
I'm not gonna say I know for sure that it was aliens. I don't and to surmise that with no further evidence would be kinda stupid in my eyes. What I do know is that I have no idea what it was and it WASN'T a conventional aircraft. I honestly don't know what It was, but I do know I have Never seen Anything like It nor have I since. That one experience has led me to believe in intelligent life outside of this planet. I can't say it Was aliens. I can say I Think it was, because I have no other explanation for it.
So.....what do YOU believe? Do YOU think we're alone in the universe? Or do YOU think there is far more out there then we could ever dream is possible?
Bleh! They spend way too much time on the forums already! Let them work on EWoM. We need a decent v1.0 afterall!
PS. They are aliens!
PPS. Sorta on-topic -> Skyline trailer debuts!
Well, as much as I want them to keep working on Elemental, I'm still really curious about what their thoughts on the matter are. We all know Frogboy and Boogie are both really intelligent people. That and their love for Sci-Fi really makes me want to know what they think on the possibility of alien life.
That trailer for that movie looks Awesome btw!!! I know what I'm going to see in November now, thanks Tormy
If there is life on other planets, I wonder if they think WE exist.
Wow...Stephen Hawking warned us...it must be true then! I gotta get me one of them wheelchairs! I don't know what concerns me the most...the fact that people think he knows anything about aliens or that he thinks he knows anything. Any self respecting alien smart enough to travel through space wouldn't bother coming to a planet as dysfunctional as this unless they really needed to take a leak...or leave one...depending on how you look at it. And the worst thing that could happen to space would be humans infesting it.
As far as whether or not aliens exist...you have a 50/50 chance of being right. So why not take the "they do exist" route since it's far more interesting to think they do then to not...not to mention the cool movies you can come up with. And seriously...why wouldn't it be possible...we're here...only makes sense that life could very well exist in another part of space as well. We can't possibly be the only ones to exist.
And as far as listening to these so-called alien experts...I see it this way...unless you've made it off this planet (other than flying to the moon and back) and made direct contact with a being from somewhere else...you don't know squat...you just have a colorful imagination...and the more you talk about something the more they make you the authority on the subject. Seriously...we make hero's out of any numb skull these days...doesn't mean it's true.
Here is an interesting [few days old] Stephen Hawking interview [kinda off-topic, but ah well]:
Stephen Hawking's Warning: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction
http://bigthink.com/ideas/21570
Let's face it: The planet is heating up, Earth's population is expanding at an exponential rate, and the the natural resources vital to our survival are running out faster than we can replace them with sustainable alternatives. Even if the human race manages not to push itself to the brink of nuclear extinction, it is still a foregone conclusion that our aging sun will expand and swallow the Earth in roughly 7.6 billion years.
So, according to famed theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking, it's time to free ourselves from Mother Earth. "I believe that the long-term future of the human race must be in space," Hawking tells Big Think. "It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster on planet Earth in the next hundred years, let alone the next thousand, or million. The human race shouldn't have all its eggs in one basket, or on one planet. Let's hope we can avoid dropping the basket until we have spread the load." Hawking says he is an optimist, but his outlook for the future of man's existence is fairly bleak. In the recent past, humankind's survival has been nothing short of "a question of touch and go" he says, citing the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1963 as just one example of how man has narrowly escaped extinction. According to the Federation of American Scientists there are still about 22,600 stockpiled nuclear weapons scattered around the planet, 7,770 of which are still operational. In light of the inability of nuclear states to commit to a global nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the threat of a nuclear holocaust has not subsided. In fact, "the frequency of such occasions is likely to increase in the future," says Hawking, "We shall need great care and judgment to negotiate them all successfully."
--->
Why We Should Reject This Idea
Despite what Hawking describes as humankind's "selfish and aggressive instinct," there may be some biological impediments to finding another planet to inhabit. "The nearest star [to Earth] is Proxima Centauri which is 4.2 light years away," says University of Michigan astrophysicist Katherine Freese, "That means that, if you were traveling at the speed of light the whole time, it would take 4.2 years to get there."Unfortunately, at the moment we can only travel at about ten thousandth of light speed, which means if man were to use chemical fuel rockets similar to the those used during the Apollo mission to the moon, the journey would take about 50,000 years. Without the use of a science-fiction-like warp drive or cryogenic freezing technology, no human would live long enough to survive the journey. In addition, "the radiation you would encounter alone would kill you, even if you could get a rocket to go anywhere near that fast," says Freese. On the upside, if man ever develops the technology to travel at the speed of light while remaining shielded from cosmic radiation, he could effectively travel into the future. "A five year trip at light speed could push an astronaut forward by 1000 earth years," says Freese, "If he wanted to see if any humans were still around by then."
I applied for a research position as an astrobiologist today. They don't necessarily look for alien lifeforms, it's more along the lines of looking for an environment which could support life. We also study extremophiles here on Earth which are tiny organisms which can survive in very extreme conditions. Also, there is new research in synthetic biology which can help us determine whether or not a distant planet could sustain a form of life.
We can study the atmosphere of different planets (and yes the atmosphere can function as a habitat in some situations), and also determine what the temperature would be like there, judging by the size of the solar system, distance from the sun, size of the star/planet, ect.
Basically then we reach a hypothesis saying - well this planet has the potential to sustain life, so why wouldn't it? I should point out that we've found over 100 planets similar to our own, when it comes to proportional distance/size from the star.
Stanley L. Miller and Harold C. Urey basically proved that early earth conditions alone could form amino acids (they formed 22, human proteins contain 20), which form proteins, which are the building blocks of life. Also, amino acids have been discovered on meteors, meaning the ingredients for life could travel on these rocks hurling through space. This may even be the way life made it to Earth. Also, we're all made from elements which formed inside stars, which also supply the solar system with energy. (Just food for thought)
Basically, the point I'm trying to make is that we actually know quite a bit more than 'squat.' Yeah, we can't see aliens in space (yet), but we can make a very educated guess about their existence, or maybe more importantly, find a second place for humans to live since we've saturated this planet with our destructive species. We're still in the first step when it comes to astrobiological studies, but we're making progress.
Stephen Hawking.........ehh, I won't go there.
Yeah I guess the term "squat" might have been a bit harsh for some....but still...the operative word here would be "guess" which sounds nicer and may be an "educated" guess but a guess is still just a guess. Obviously when you have better toys to look for something your guess can be a bit better then others...but it's still just a guess. Basically what I meant when I said "squat" was I get annoyed when some people like Hawking talk about space as though their word is gospel (and he hasn't said anything that I haven't thought of myself) and they make it sound as though they know for sure what's happening out there when they can't possibly know. And now because of what he said some people are out planning their escape...lol It's just annoying when we give one persons word so much weight in regards to things like this.
But based on what you mentioned about amino acids being found on rocks hurtling through space is something I could rap my head around. It lends to the possibility that we came from somewhere else and actually began again here...so we could actually be the aliens we're looking for and what we should really be looking for is our former home. Maybe we already screwed up some other planet like we're doing now. That would be interesting to discover.
And when you say you can test the atmosphere of a planet and reach a hypothesis saying - well this planet has the potential to sustain life, so why wouldn't it? I would think that you would actually have to spend more time in the environment of that atmosphere to see long term effects to make a better judgment, rather than making it on small sample of that environment and atmosphere. I'm sure you can learn something though.
Life is far more resilient than most people give it credit I would imagine. As G3 alludes when he (?) mentions the extremophiles.
However, there is 'life' and there is 'Life'.
Either would be significant if discovered elsewhere, but the big-L version would be that much more significant. Finding something which can survive in a difficult environment is far far different from finding something which evolved in a difficult environment until it was able to modify the environment to suit its own purposes. Though that still doesn't require intelligence (as I think we would nominally define it).
I get annoyed with those sort of people too. Almost all of science is strictly theory, but I think a lot of scientists tend to forget that. After doing years and years of research, I'm sure it's easy to mistake their hypothesis for the "truth."
That's a very interesting theory. There was a tv show on the other day about whether or not there is a "creator," and they interviewed the maker of the video game, The Sims. (Big surprise) His theory was that humans in the future created our world using some kind of super computer. Well, I guess his theory is just as good as anyone Eese's when it comes to a question like that.
Oh I definitely agree with you there. You're very correct when you say it's still just a guess.......but it's a good guess. Also, I just want to say, a unique property of life is it's ability to survive. I mean there has been hundreds of mass extinctions on this planet, yet life always replenishes. We can travel to the most extreme places in the planet, such as the bottom of the ocean where the salinity of the water is very saturated, and we still find organisms surviving and sustaining viable populations. This is why scientists are studying these organisms, to find out just how good life is at surviving. Yeah, there are many planets like Earth, but chances are, most of the time the only aliens will be these small extremophiles similar to ones found on this planet.
Check out this article about Earth like planets, which was just published a few weeks ago:
LINK
Hey, let's not be hating on Hawking. He really is quite humble, and is willing to admit when he's wrong. AFAIK, he's never said any of his predictions about aliens, etc, are anything more than his own opinions, or claimed that said predictions are based on scientific "fact." If the media chooses to blow it completely out of proportion (which they often do) and loose the necissary qualifiers, that is a whole seperate problem that really isn't his fault.
Yeah, it's mostly people who listen to something he says, and instantly think it's fact. My problem with Hawking is as an astrophysicist he relays information in a way that makes people believe him with questioning his rationality. This doesn't allow them to experience both sides of an argument or even the problems with his theories. This isn't completely his fault, but I wish he would be a little more objective when explaining his theories to the general public. I think this is particularly important for an astrophysicist since mostly everything in that subject is theory.
1. I don't think mankind will annihilate itself due to war.
2. I don't think mankind will drain so many resources the earth can't sustain life.
3. I don't think mankind will overpopulate the planet.
4. I don't think mankind will find intelligent extraterrestial life within a thousand years
1. Mankind is not violent, as I said earlier, mankind is one of the animals that can show compassion and mercy even to competitors and other animals. Furthermore, nukes are really not a viable weapon. They tend to be erratic and damages any land you might consider conquering. They are more used as diplomatic leverage. Or as Civ1 said: OUR WORDS ARE BACKED BY NUCLEAR WEAPONS!!!
2. We haven't seen enough proof or damage by resource loss for the world leaders to radically alter the view of resources yet. Mankind will in its current rate of usage seriously destabilize the world balance. We will get more floods, more fires, less ice, different seasons, and different weather. Yet not enough to convince enough people to change ways. Eventually I think we will see with proof what is happening before we have made it completely irreversible. The damage will take centuries to repair, but eventually there will be no permanent harm. Death tolls might reach billions, many nations miight collapse, any things might occur. Yet these are from a view of the earth, barely noticeable. But as with financial crashes, we just don't learn from the past and we might start overusing the resources again, and once more we will have problems. But never will we cause enough damage in enough time.
3. We will simply run out of resources before that. The life span will shorten but not much else since birth rates will go down. From a view of mankind as a whole or from the view of the planet, it will be barely noticeable. Mankind as species might even think it a plus since we will regain some of the daily competition.
4. The closest habitable planet is not close, and we have no way or even a tried idea on how to get there within ten thousand years. Inbetween distance, time, and lack of energy(not enough sun for photosynthesis), it is not a shred possible today. The 16th century people could not even in their wildest dreams have imagined what the 21st century would look like. I do not claim to know the future or even give accurate guesses, but it is harder to leave the solar system, much less reach another solar system.
The largest and most present threat would be a virus that becomes another spanish flu. We travel so much these days and the virus could spread to several continents before symptoms get noticed. Yet it is not likely to kill mankind, between medicine and biodiversity, some might survive.
Another end of the world scenario is what happens when the universes expansion halts. No one knows what happens then, gravity will probably pull everything together into a single point and restart big bang, but this is just a theory as we have no evidence or solid data. Whatever happens, especially if what mentioned happens, the human race must not only leave their solar system, we must leave the universe. And that is probably hard...
I believe.
1. I don't think mankind will annihilate itself due to war.2. I don't think mankind will drain so many resources the earth can't sustain life.3. I don't think mankind will overpopulate the planet.4. I don't think mankind will find intelligent extraterrestrial life within a thousand years
Hmmm, there is proof to the contrary for some of that you know. If not concrete proof then proof that we're heading in the wrong direction. Allow me to explain in more detail:
1. Mankind IS a violent species. We are one of only TWO species on the planet that Enjoys Violence for Violence's sake. You know what that other species is? Killer Whales. Killer Whales have been documented in the wild killing seals for nothing more than Pleasure. Not to eat it. Just to kill it and toss it around like a ball....for Fun. I think there's even video footage of it. No other creatures on Earth kill simply for Fun.
As a species that Does like Violence I think there IS a very good chance we'll wipe ourselves out by means of War. I Do however think that we are Smart Enough Not Too do that. In the end it will all boil down to population limits, which we DO have and Need. There IS a "tipping point" where we WILL use up the majority of the planet's resources and won't have enough left to keep our increasing population fed and sheltered. There ARE hundreds of thousands, if not Millions of people world wide who go to bed hungry Every Night. There are people in Africa and parts of Asia and India that ARE starving in the streets. Hell, we have people right here in the US starving in the streets.
2. You do know we will end up using ALL the world's oil reserves within the Next 25-35 years right? I'd call that "Running Out" of a resource. While obviously oil isn't food and we can't eat it, we DO use it to run the machinery that makes feeding the world's ever growing population possible. We use oil to make gas and diesel to ship food all over the world. We use it to run generators and to make electricity so that we can refrigerate that food so it doesn't spoil before it gets to where it's going to be consumed by people. When we run out of oil our ability to produce and ship enough food to feed the population WILL be hampered. That's a fact. Unless we find an alternative energy source then when the world's oil reserves are gone people WILL start dying because of it.
3. Seriously? We're over-populating the planet NOW. In China families are limited to having only 2 children. Actually I think now the government there limits people to only having One child. It's called "population control". Why would they need to do that if over-population Wasn't a Problem? What do you think China will do when their population reaches the point that they absolutely NEED more land to spread out? I'm betting they'll invade some other country and kill off the local populations to make room for more Chinese people. History is FULL of examples of countries that go to war because they need more land and resources. Also, What about all the kids in Africa that are born to parents with aids in areas where food won't even grow? Why are they still having children when they can't feed themselves? Honestly it amazes me that people would even try to live in areas where food can't be grown to feed the native population. In ancient times when a population couldn't feed themselves in the area they were in they would migrate to a area where they Could feed themselves. Either that or they would Die. It was natures way of population control. Now, in today's world, when a population is starving organizations have food drives and charities to feed the starving population of third world countries. While being a "humanitarian" is a nobel cause, it does go against nature. People who were meant to starve and die out are being kept alive and what's worse is they're multiplying like rats in a grain silo which just creates a further problem by making more mouths to feed. There's a reason why we have this thing called "survival of the fittest". If you're not "fit", you die, plain and simple. This is natures Only Way of controlling the human population as we don't have any natural predators killing us for food. The only predator man has to face is other men.
4. That one I can't argue with. Though I do sincerely hope that you're wrong about that one and that we will find other intelligent life in our universe, it's quite possible that we won't for many, Many, years to come. Perhaps even in a thousand years time. Without some Serious changes to our lifestyle as a species though I don't know if we'll even be around as a species a thousand years from now. If the worlds population keeps increasing exponentially as it is now we WILL run out of room and we WILL pass a point where there are too many and we won't be able to grow food fast enough to feed them all. Some day that WILL happen. I won't say we're close to it happening any time soon, but it's simple numbers. It's a FACT that we will run out of room and resources some day. The worlds resources aren't infinite and people need to start realizing that before it's too late for All Of Us.
1. I don't think mankind will annihilate itself due to war.2. I don't think mankind will drain so many resources the earth can't sustain life.3. I don't think mankind will overpopulate the planet.4. I don't think mankind will find intelligent extraterrestial life within a thousand years
1. Who knows.....I would give it a 50% chance.
2. You gotta be kidding. The natural resources of the planet are limited.
3. If the population keeps growing at the current rate....mankind will overpopulate the planet.
4. I agree with this one. [...logic says this at least..]
Raven-
Peak oil? In 30 years? That's a very unsubstantiated opinion.
As to finding intelligent ETs in 1000 years...
Well unless the laws of physics are seriously different from what we have thus far proven them to be, it's more likely that we will never find intelligent ETs ever.
For as much as it is true that the sheer number of planets in the universe practically guarantees that there are intelligent ETs out there somewhere, the sheer magnitude of the distances required to see signs of them, let alone for them or us to travel to each others worlds, practically guarantees that we will never meet them.
Unless you want to engage in daydreams about warp speed and worm holes and that kind of jazz. But if you want to engage in those daydreams you might as well engage in daydreams where we develop free energy and global utopias. Actually the latter daydreams seem more likely to me than the former.
Just want to add, mankind has multiplied it's knowledge in leaps and bounds since I've been born. And every year this knowledge seems to multiply by the power of 10. Because of that, yes, I do believe man will achieve anything it puts it's mind to. {Cliche but, true}
I don't believe man went on the moon but, ask me if I believe that one day there will be Trump real estate up there. I would say a resounding, yes. We are to curious and resourceful to have it any other way. And very very smart.
Engage daydreams Data, they're only a moment away.
2 - Tragedy of the commons
3 - The human species is already triple it's population threshold. (we should be extinct)
4 - A thousand years is an awfully long time. I'm sure life will be completely different, and our technology will be far beyond anything we can imagine right now. If people from a thousand years ago saw how we live today, they would be overwhelmed. That trend will only continue, exponentially - assuming we survive that long.
Speaking of free energy, there are scientists doing research on incorporating a 'human' type of photosynthesis into our genome. Our metabolic mechanism could really use some improvements as well.....but that goes back to my other post about merging technology within our species - and I won't get into that, to avoid getting off subject even further.
If it took you half and hour to "type" out a coherent sentence with your cheek, you probably wouldn't be able to talk about everything you wanted to, either (ok, a half hour is a slight exageration, but it still takes him quite a while).
The problem isn't him, it's the general public. Most of them are, well, idiots when it comes to science and/or math. They aren't interested in either, unless it's something "popular" and well-known, like the subject of aliens (which has the added bonus of conflicting with some religions, making it a more popular subject). The only thing you can really "fault" Hawking on is even trying to explain his theories to the general public in the first place.
You have way more faith in humanity than I do.
Haha very, very good point, kyogre12.
Ok, after doing a little more research, I can say you're right in my guess at 30 years is a little too soon. Still, oil IS a finite resource. As we use it we diminish our reserves. We can only pump so much out of the ground before there simply isn't any more there to pump up. Eventually we WILL run out. Most scientists are of the opinion that we definitely have Less than 100 years of oil left and that's at the Maximum. The problem comes in that there is no way to know for certain exactly how much is left. We are finding out more and more every day however how much is left that we can "easily" extract. By "easily" I mean in a cost effective manner. When it comes down to it there are places in the Earth where the very soil/sand its-self is inundated with oil. The problem is finding a cost effective way to extract that oil. To give you an idea of how fast our reserves are being drained check out this article I found on the major Kuwait oil field called the Burgan field. Here's an excerpt:
"It was an incredible revelation last week that the second largest oil field in the world is exhausted and past its peak output. Yet that is what the Kuwait Oil Company revealed about its Burgan field. The peak output of the Burgan oil field will now be around 1.7 million barrels per day, and not the two million barrels per day forecast for the rest of the field's 30 to 40 years of life, Chairman Farouk Al Zanki told Bloomberg. He said that engineers had tried to maintain 1.9 million barrels per day but that 1.7 million is the optimum rate. Kuwait will now spend some $3 billion a year for the next year to boost output and exports from other fields."
Read the full article Here.
Keep in mind that article is from 2005, so, the supply in the Burgan Field is even lower now then when the article was initially written. To my knowledge the Burgan field was the worlds largest known deposit at the time. I'm not sure if it still is or not, but it was then. No-one really knows how much oil is left buried in the Earth, but, we do know more or less how much is left in the wells we have now. Unless we find more wells with a plentiful supply the fields we have now will be dry sometime in the next 50 years or so. It won't be our generation that has to deal with the collapse when it comes, but it will be our children or our grandchildren.
I've heard a lot of unsubstantiated rumors concerning the oil deposit that is spilling all over the gulf of Mexico. I've heard everything ranging from "It's the biggest deposit ever found in or near North America" to "it's a small deposit that will only last 25 years or so". Honestly I don't have any idea which of those statements is more truthful, but it's safe to say the well isn't an endless supply. Eventually we will run out and when we do a lot of people are going to die from lack of energy to create food and ship it to where it needs to go to feed the ever growing populations.
We'll find out come 12/21/12. My people will be returning.
Oil is finite, as is anything on the planet (though so long as there are energy inputs from the sun, some things are kind of infinite, but that's not really the realm in which oil lives). As you say though, there are many oil deposits we are aware of, which are currently not cost effective to produce from.
If you accept technology continuing to grow, at some point these oil reserves might be cost effective, even at current prices. Or simply become cost effective as demand makes the selling price higher.
However, that's not really that important as we are already on a path away from oil as the primary energy source it is now (one of the primary, with coal and natural gas being others, though also finite supplies). How soon we break the dependence clearly is dependent on a multitude of factors, though I do think that much of the concern over these 'finite resources' is not merited. Because again, we are already moving away from them, not because I think they will last for another millennium.
We also have a food glut in the world TODAY. The issues about getting it where it needs to go to feed people who are starving are entirely political, as the logistics exist to feed everyone, but the will does not.
Though this is starting to stray rather far from the original thread topic, so let me say that GM modified food is an alien plot to convert our DNA, and hence humankind, into a better food stock for them.
Interesting link G3mpi3! But you still can't really tell without landing on these planets...but flybys are nice to at least get a picture of these planets. It's a shame the cost is to high to have a craft spend more time out there checking things out.
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