http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/64822
Digital distribution accounted for 48% of PC games sold in the USA last year, according to a new report from market research firm The NPD Group.
21.3 million "PC Game full-game digital downloads" were purchased in the USA in 2009 while 23.5 million physical units were bought at retail during the year, according to NPD's figures. DD raked in 48% of unit sales and 36% of dollar sales.
The group also offers its own ranking of the various digital distributors, divided into categories of "casual digital retailers" and those "which often focus on titles that are also offered in retail stores as physical purchases." The ranking supports Direct2Drive's refutation of Impulse's claim that it held second place in the PC DD market, at least.
Top 5 Frontline Digital Retailers - 2009 (based on unit % share) Steampowered.com Direct2Drive.com Blizzard.com EA.com Worldofwarcraft.com Top 5 Casual Digital Retailers - 2009 (based on unit % share) Bigfishgames.com Pogo.com Gamehouse.com iWin.com Realarcade.com
NPD notes that the market share of "Casual Digital Retailers" declined in 2009 over the previous year, which the group speculates is in part due to "the increase in popularity of free social network gaming and free mobile gaming."
"The popularity of social network gaming increased from Q3'09 to Q4'09 as 4.8 million more people played games on a social network in the U.S.," said NPD analyst Anita Frazier. "This demonstrates how consumers can now experience casual types of games through myriad vehicles, broadening the competitive landscape."
Two separate surveys served as the foundation for the report--a quarterly survey of 8,000 members of its "online consumer panel" and a weekly survey of 180,000 members.
Only if you account for every copy of every game purchased. Which the study didn't.
Second hand sales don't and shouldn't count since the industry makes no money off them.
This is just estimate because NPD dont have data from Steam, D2D etc.
IMO in 2009 50-60% were bought over digital distribution service.
I'll take a survey of 180k people giving actual experiences over 1 persons random estimate any day.
The main flaw I see with the survey is it was of members, which presumably means members of an internet-based membership, and hence more predisposed to purchasing games online. However I wouldn't expect that to have a large impact on the split between online distributors so that information is more useful to me. Amusing seeing how many people taking issue with the survey because (presumably) it doesn't give them the result they want.
Annatar, given a large enough sample (several thousands qualify without a doubt) it can be determined that the sample represents the whole population within a few %s of doubt. It won't be 100% accurate, of course. But statistical analysis is a very viable means of determining things such as these.
However, there are many other things that flaw the report, as noted. And without actual insight into the report, we can't determine its validity (or rather, the validity is zero). That's why I tried to say, rather than take the values as set-in-stone this-is-the-truth-all-who-disagree-shall-perish, I'd consider the implications such a report has regarding my own personal view of the market. I always believed strongly in the digital release market, and I personally find it gratifying to see that it isn't going anywhere.
Because I'm one lazy fucker, and I don't like people and I don't like game shops. Hopefully, the digital release market will continue to expand and companies such as MS or Sony will see that they're actually missing out on sales for consoles (bean counters can't afford to say "well, if he wanted it he would buy the box").
While NPD's normal monthly figures may be based on actual sales data, it says right in the article that this particular report is based wholly on surveys of NPD members, i.e., people who have gone to the NPD website and signed up to take surveys for chances at prizes. This isn't like the political polls where they randomly cold-call people out of a phone directory.
The survey is already going to have major selection bias issues based on that alone. It is extremely unlikely that people who come across their website (probably based on ads, which many people block nowadays) and are subsequently motivated to sign up and take various surveys by a miniscule chance at a prize are representative of the entire PC game-buying public.
That was a vicious reduction of my post, I think
I don't think World of Warcraft should fall under that list, since blizzard has it as part of its portfolio.
I'd be willingly to bet the survey's results are well within an acceptable margin of error. A lot of you have problems with that fact that it's using data gathered using NPD's consumer panel. I think this is negligible. The people that participate in NPD's consumer panel come from a lot of different demographics, not just rabid PC gamers.
Suffice to say, thats not the most questionable part about their results. They define "Frontline Digital Retailers" as a retailer who sells titles "...that are also offered in retail stores as physical purchases". Keep in mind that a significant amount of Impulse's titles are games that simply aren't sold in retail stores, whereas the vast majority of D2D's titles are.
I can easily believe digital sales are going up, and not just for PC. There are more and more digital-download only games even for consoles. It's a great way for smaller and indie publishers to give their games 'shelf space' without having to compete with EA, Ubisoft, and other giants at the retail level. And that's a good thing IMO. Retailers are notorious for never cutting prices on old games or having sales. Their idea of a discount is offering $5 less than full retail for a used copy. If retailers start to lose their influence over the industry, perhaps the price of digital copies will finally start to go for less than retail like they should have all along. $50-60 for a digitial copy of a game with no box, manual, or disc? I don't think so.
In all honestly, I'd prefer to see PC go 100% digitial in the future and leave the consoles to the brick and mortar money traps. I can't remember the last time I bought a PC game in-store.
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