I know we have one thread going on "Cloud Gaming" already, but, I wanted to have another conversation on the subject without breaking down the integrity of the topic and "generalness" of that thread. Here I'd like to talk about one thing,...
What will happen if it works like they say it will? What will happen to PC Gaming in particular?
So, let's assume for the sake of this discussion that it Does work like they say. You get top of the line gaming, awesome graphics, and No Lag. It uses limited bandwidth since it's basically just streaming a picture, and from now on you never have to buy a "Top of the Line" computer again. What's going to happen to the rest of the Gaming Industry and what will the affect be on PC Gaming? I have some general conclusions that I would like to share and get some feed-back on.
Firstly, if it truly runs smooth and looks good with no lag, people are going to flock to this en-mass. One connection will come with a controller that plugs into a PC or for those types of games or you can use your standard mouse and key board. Let's not forget this thing does PC games too!!! Dragon Age, Mass Effect 2, etc etc, all here in working order playable as normal with your mouse and keyboard or a controller. You can get games the day they come out without needing a pre-order. No standing in line. No hours of downloading a huge game file and then installing it and hoping your system specs can handle it. It just works.
The first and most obvious effect this will have will be in the next 3 to 5 years as people who would normally be upgrading their PC's to handle the next generation of games Won't be doing this. Why go out and buy a $600 graphics card to run "Crysis 5" when OnLive can do it right on your monitor and it still looks perfect? The answer is most people won't unless the economy makes a drastic upturn. People are hesitant to spend large sums of money especially when given a cheaper option that works just as well. Graphics Card Manufacturers are going to be the first ones to start feeling the pinch followed closely by companies that make CPU's that go faster and faster in their war to stay competitive with one another. Manufacturers who make Monitors will still be golden because PC's will always need bigger and better screens, especially since the Cloud does movies too. It won't be long until "going out to the movies" will be a thing of the past. Movies will release at home the same day they do in a Box Office.
Believe it or not, aside from Military applications, it's the video game industry that has driven our progress in computers in the last 10 years or more. Business tries to take some of the credit, but come on let's face it, we don't need uber processors and graphics cards to do spreadsheets and graphs, we need them to pwn neewbs online.
As these companies loose money due to no new sales aside from when someone's computer breaks, the drive for better and faster hardware will dry up. The only one's who will need this hardware are the companies providing the services for use in their Cloud Servers. The average gamer who just wants to play is playing all the latest games through one of these services, they won't be buying a high end graphics card anymore. The same applies for consoles. Sony, Nintendo, Microsoft, all will eventually start loosing money because people no longer need their hardware to play their games. It's done through the cloud and these companies are forced to license their games to the services to get them out to the players. Even the long standing Nintendo will eventually succumb as this system will catch on even in Japan. People won't buy a new Nintendo system just to play Mario and Zelda unless they are incredibly cheap as 90% of the other titles will all be on one Cloud Service or another. Nintendo too will be forced to adapt and either license all their games or make their own Cloud System to compete.
The next big hit will be to Video Game Stores. Vendors such as Gamestop, EB Games, assorted other toy stores. No one will be buying hard copies of games, period, because they won't have the hardware capable of running them. It will all be distributed online. For those few people who do still have computers capable of keeping up, they'll buy games through digital distributors or on special orders straight from the publisher.
Speaking of Digital Distributors, they get hit next.... (Pay Attention here, Brad, this is you)
For a while at first these systems will start doing better and better (seems to be happening now wouldn't you say?). As demand in stores go down demand in a virtual environment will go up because plenty of people will still want to pay for a copy of a program. Since stores won't carry what they need they are forced to go through Digital systems. These systems will see a drastic increase of business, but, Only for a Limited Time. As games and programs quickly surpass the running requirements of even the "tech savvy" home user, these people won't be able to run the latest and greatest games that are being made. Sadly in a catch 22, as the companies that make the graphics cards are now charging $2000 for a top of the line card, normal people won't be able to afford to keep a "state of the art" system on hand to play games. They too, in a short time (4 or 5 years tops), will be forced to go into the Cloud to keep gaming.
Digital Distribution systems at this point, Must Evolve, if they are going to stay competitive. They will either loose all their games to the Cloud Gaming Servers or they will Become Cloud Gaming Servers themselves. If Impulse and Steam want to remain independent of a system like OnLive they will have to offer the same types of services it does. As such I think that is the most likely evolution of those companies who will want to stay competitive and not be a part of OnLive or license their games to them. The example I give above about "Nintendo" is, I think, the most likely outcome. Nintendo, Sony, X-Box, EA Games, Ubisoft Games, Steam, Impulse, etc etc, all these game companies and services will all offer their own "Cloud Service" or they will be forced to lease their games for use on another companies service.
As we can see, if Cloud Gaming works like they say it does, if it's lag free and plays great, the world of Video Game Entertainment is in for a BIG change. This will have far reaching applications into the industry and could spell Doom for certain aspects of it, or at least how things are now. PC gaming will be particularly hard hit. People will still be playing games on PC, but you won't need a powerful system to do it in relative style. The parts companies and manufacturers will be hard hit early on. I think N'Vidia and ATI will divide up the industry by specializing in working with certain game companies to make their games. EA, Bioware, a few others will go with N'Vidia, the rest with ATI. The common man though won't be able to afford the new "Corporate Server Edition" graphics cards.
What about Piracy? Well, with nothing to copy, Piracy will die out. People won't have files to install from their favorite games, they won't have DvD's to install, all these things are kept on Corporate Servers and streamed to paying, subscribing, customers only.
The only way a "Pirate" will actually get his hands on a game is if he hacks a server somewhere and steals it. There won't be anything to copy and burn and put online. Companies don't care about Pirates, as I guess they shouldn't, but they should care about being able to sell the games they make and the hardware being made to run them on. If this takes off everyone will be forced to adapt or get the hell out of dodge. A lot of smaller companies won't make it through this and that's a fact. I don't think Stardock has much to worry about, Impulse or no Impulse, you make your money with Windows Applications and in the coming years that might be all that keeps you afloat if things go down like this. We have very interesting times ahead, my friends. Very interesting indeed.
Thoughts on the Future of the Industry if Cloud Gaming works?
So to sumarise, Online Delivered Games will kill PC Gaming.
I can't think of anything that would really change in the grand scheme of things. I mean sure businesses would stop but then thats what happens as technology moves on. I've seen people say that the internet is responsible for the destruction of media and that we should limit the use of the internet to protect it. I say why does the media which has only been around in its modern format for about 50-60 years need to be protected?
Stuff changes, good business men will jump in to fill a need in the market bad ones will complain that the market is being destroyed by said new market. (and business women still won't be allowed to make anything but the tea)
The technology companys will see their server markets expand, steam and stardock would probably move to the new onlive delivery service and the fanbois would still claim superiority of thier favoured brand like little sheep. Gamestop will burn in hell. Game developers will still create awesome or crap games depending entirely on what motivates them and fools will still play the crap ones. I will still play the good ones.
Females are still attractive and the French are still French.
That's all well said, and true, but, are you Really Ok with not owning hard copies of games you pay for? Are you "Ok" with not being able to play your games because you got stuck somewhere with crapy internet capabilities? In this situation consoles dry up too don't forget and you won't have any PC games without a strong internet connection. You're Ok with that?
I'm not honestly. Maybe I'm old fashioned but I like having something to put in my hand when I spend money. Yes with some things you're just buying the "experience", like going to the movies, but, gaming shouldn't be one of those things.
I think the key point is that cloud services must be flawless. And we are far from it. The bandwidth needed is just tremendous. And I wouldn't want my game to stop while I play because internet connection got cut.
I just see that as a new way to play, but not something that will make today's play obsolete. The only market that will be harmed is the graphic cards one. But people will still need some good cards for film and photo editing.
PS: and it seems you don't live in France to say such things My country has changed a lot in the last decade. And not in a better way. "Things" are just getting worse. One thing didn't change, we still like to complain about anything and everything.
For some reason Vieuxchat's post got in after mine when he posted first...sooo, repost..lol.
It won't make the current systems obsolete right away, but when it comes time to spend money, it will, and that won't take long. Especially when Christmas time rolls around and a kid wants a PS4 that costs $500 to play God of War 6. Instead you got him/her OnLive for $20 a month and they're playing GoW6 happilly not missing the PS4.
Yes, "we" (the old -___- ones, yes we who are 30ish years old) don't like it. But future generations ? They don't really care it seems. Piracy had a bad consequence on that : the kids I work with (I'm a teacher for 10 years old pupils) have memory cards with a lot of game they got on the "internetz". They have no sense of "that's my game". they're not as attached as we are with the products we own. They know they pirated it, they know they don't own it, so a boxed game isn't something they're looking for. But ! They love to look at booklets that are sold with boxed games.
And those kids are the real target for future gaming. Even if old gamers will still play and pay, the kids are the ones who will live with a "mature" cloud gaming. So they will have the power to sustain the cloud gaming industry. We are just pioneers.
It is a bad news for PC gaming, but Pc sales, and hardware, aren't only tied to gaming sales.
But do you really think cloud gaming will be able to give us the experience we could get with an xbox or a PS ? Bandwith isn't something that can grow without limits.
Well, as I state in the original post, this thread isn't about whether or not the technolgy works. This thread is about how the industry Will change when it's working. I haven't played anything with OnLive but I've seen some Demo's online. "If" they are to be believed, he was playing Crysis from half way across the country and there was no vissible lag that I saw and the graphics looked just as good and crisp as what I pump out on my GTX280. If it truly works as good as they show (honestly I'm not sure and won't be until I try it) then the Technology IS there to do it now. If that's the case then everything I say in the first post will have bearing in the next few years.
You really have to play it for a while to know if it works or not. I can notice the tinyiest little bit of mouse lag and it totaly ruins a game if its important to aim with the mouse precisly.
wonder how this could play in to things
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/06/net-neutrality-us-court-r_n_526972.html
If internet service providers can deny and control the speed at which we connect - how would that bottleneck some users with this cloud service.
To me it seems 1984ish - I saw this coming back in 1995 when the internet was completely free. Soon every site you go to will be controlled and limited/accessible upon subscription. It was just a matter of time when the corporations would own the last bits of freedom contained within the internet.
Soon, games will be completely owned by their respective companies and we will just be merely renting and gaining momentary access to them. At $20 per month (a guess) for several years would well pay for one game several times over. And you think you could have unlimited access to games for one set subscription model? Hmmm....
Is it fair after paying a subscription for over a year you fall on some hard times and have to cancel the subscription - and you have that old nostalgia feeling to play some old game that came years ago. Poof! You don't have a subscription Doh! Even though you had well overpayed for that game 5x or more.
Also, when games become obsolete will they eventually be removed from the servers? Perfect example here in this community as some of you still break out MoM every now and again. Will these companies be forever young and store every single game indefinitely?
Too much control removed from the user and given to corporations. Well, I am a nutty conspiracy theorist anyways...
A good business man (or maybe woman if shes hot enough - this is sarcasm; for the stupid amung us) would fill those niche markets I hope.
Its just like porn, theres something for everyone - no matter how weird your fetish is. (If you don't have a fetish - or several - see a doctor imediatly). If there is a market, someone will fill it. If there is a need, someone will satisfy it.
this is my biggest fear...I still play some 8 year old games...
I am still a bit confused over the whole idea of not needing a super computer to play games that require super computers to play them. How would one not need a good video card to play games being streamed from online? I would think one would still need some decent power to play games that are usually very CPU and Video intensive.
Your using a server who has the horse size wang to do the power but its more like an internet cafe, i.e YOU don't need the super computer. And overall there would be less computers needed since not everyone plays games all the time like Raven X. (lol)
Possessing intangible property goes to the heart of your issues RavenX. Not saying that's a character flaw, but it does make you a luddite (which it feels really strange to call someone who is clearly an advanced gamer). And again, the cloud servers cannot stream these games without graphics cards. And the graphics card industry is fully aware of this. As for Nintendo and the other consolers, they will evolve the interface. They have already begun this. They are continually evolving the DS and the WiiShops are becoming closer and closer to online gaming anyway.
I imagine they will try to monopolize on having the most reliable portable gaming interface with such a cloud server farm (in other words, make it so you can play in a cave.)
So, while I can see how CPU power may not be necessary, wouldn't GPU power still be needed in order to view the streams? And what about memory? I would think (if I understand how PC hardware works) that while the hard drive may not need to be, say, 1 TB to accommodate the size of newer games (since they will be fully online), that more than the average memory (therefor a 64bit OS) would be needed none the less? Or will 2 or 3 gigs be enough to play a game like Crisys thru cloud gaming? I'm just really curious and want to better understand all of this. I consider myself a somewhat computer knowledgeable person but I can admit when there are things I don't get.
You wouldn't need much memory, it's just like streaming an HD video...you would need upload speed though to communicate your commands.
Supposedly you only need about the same amount of processing power as playing a movie, or less really since the your machine isn't even having to actually play it, just display it. A somewhat speedy single-core, integrated graphics and minimal RAM to play Crysis. That could be one of the few upsides to the whole ordeal. If it even works.
Oh I believe it will work...ten years from now. Just think about the server that could handle the processing required to host, process and produce the graphics to be streamed for even ten high-end multiplayer games. This would be a beast of a machine, and it would run hot and use a lot of power. The ideas are there, and they are solid...but the money isn't there yet and neither is the hardware.
I have many of the same thoughts as you Raven, BUT there are positive aspects to consider:
As the technology gets more advanced it will be possible to make good games cheaper and easier. Why wouldnt cheap gaming engines evolve that private persons and small companies could make good games from? Why couldnt you and me Raven get some friends together and make our own cloud from some shareware in the future? If the clouds get too restrictive then indie movements will make alternatives. With more and more premade classes, gaming engins and such,this could be done with quality.
Companies like Stardock could be selling us software that is gaming elements that we use to make our own games in the future. Instead of chosing opponents and difficulty levels we might in the future choose type of world, economy type, rpg elements and play excactly the game we want. We could drag and drop elements to make an rpg game like Dragon Age.
I am actually more afraid of the possibility of a restricted Internet in general. Censorship, internet policing, restricted speed for general users and such.
If cloud computing is successful Raven X, then it will be good for our planet in general. Less reliance on tangible goods means our dumps/recycle centers should be better off. My only "good" argument for cloud gaming is reduction in overall waste materials. Maybe..I also want to see our general public education system take to the cloud. We could have our most enjoyable instructors record and place their classes online from beginning english all the way up to our most advanced university phd classes. Everyone should have free access online. Education will then be far more readily available and make our country/planet have a brighter future. My hope at least.
If only the company needs to purchase amazing hardware rather than every single consumer in order to enjoy the game then it's possible to have much more advanced hardware while still being cost effective, since the cost of that hardware will be spread out over many consumers. Meanwhile the competition among different service providers ensures that they're always looking to improve their hardware so they can offer even better gaming experiences and pull in users.
Ultimately if it works as suggested, it will be a better product. That means it can attract higher prices, either with higher 1-off payments or more likely monthly fees which over time result in more money than a 1-off fee. This means these companies will have more money to play with, and can afford more advanced hardware even if the costs of that hardware have gone up due to lack of economies for scale.
Another way to look at it - say your average gamer spends $100 a year on gaming, $50 of that on games and $50 on hardware. If this is a big success then they now need to spend only $10 on hardware, and so can afford to spend much more on games, meaning they might now spend $75 on games. Meanwhile because the games are so much more accessable it opens up the market to even more people, meaning there is even more money involved. So these companies providing cloud gaming will have so much money they can easily afford to advance the hardware used for games.
As such if it does work perfectly I don't see what the issue is - it could prove a big boost to gaming so long as it is within a competitive landscape.
In the other thread going I say "It won't be pretty and the people who are going to loose out in the end are users who use their high end PC's for a lot more then just gaming.". That would be Me. My computer isn't just a Video Game machine. My computer is a whole Home Entertainment experience. I run it to my big screen TV and I play movies on it. I play music on it that I can hear anywhere in my house if I want. My computer is a multi-functional mass multimedia machine. I own hundreds (if not thousands) of movies and many hundreds of games. I have brand new games buried in boxes that I never even had time to play. I also use my computer to make Money, though lately that's been less and less. Still, I'm definitely one of the people I mention that uses his computer for "a lot more then just gaming".
That sounds like a awesome idea my friend, but, I think it will be a long, Long, time before we have something like that of any quality. That also doesn't change the fact that I won't have a game of my own that I paid for. Not to mention old games will be taken off of these systems because few people will play them, they'll be taken off to save storage space for the companies hosting them. They'll be taken down for a bunch of reasons most likely.
On top of all that, in any Cloud system, the Censorship you're worried about will be in full affect. All these services will be controlled by companies and as such so will the content. You won't see random Porn adds or adds for anything the companies don't want to sell you. Also this means they'll have the ability to force advertising on you. How long do you think it will be until they start interrupting your gaming session to show you a commercial? I think that will happen too in time. Everything will be monitored as well. We can't have perverts and pedophiles having access to these systems now can we? No, of course not, that would endanger our children!!! Hell while they're at it, they'll probably just cut out anyone who has Any kind of a "criminal" record. What's that, you smoked pot 12 years ago in college and got busted? No Cloud Service access for you!!! You might corrupt our children!!!
This will also widen the breach between the "Haves" and "Have Nots". People with lots of money to throw away will be signed up for these services, plus they'll be buying games on the services, plus they'll pay extra for advantages and "Gold Memberships" and privileges that normal users can't afford. New forms of discrimination will be born and adopted and the cause will be money and the ability to spend it.
The market does tend to slip through fingers of fists that tighten too hard. If hardware gets better and cheaper as fast as we expect, then smaller private/indie alternatives would pop up with their own systems. Worst case scenario I write the game myself
Why would any game company need to discontinue games in the future? The game is in the cloud, hardware is cheap, customers pay (a little). Games would run for a very long time. Games could even be sold to other companies instead of being discontinued.
I am actually toying with a browser game that is a bit like other strategic games (utopia kingdoms and such) but have very unique elements. The shopowners in your main city, the soldiers on leave ++ will have a mind of their own (a bit like Majesty). In my game individual units matter (a touch of RPG there). You will follow the development of each unit as you try to give him experience, money, weapons and other stuff, without killing him. Problem is my lack of disipline, programming skills (I have the skills to make it, but only in a language running on a server that is rather expensive) and generally a busy life. I digress...
Edit - My game would have a single player focus, though its made to be played by many at the same time.
It could also go the opposite way. Here's the current payment plan's for OnLive and how it will be at launch. Look at this and tell me what you see.
When OnLive launches it will charge for these specific things. I don't know the prices of those things but I DO know this is what they will charge for.
1. Monthly Subscription Fee for the "OnLive" service.
This covers the rental price of the "Micro-console" and your Controller. A Micro-console is a small box that hooks up to your TV. In reality this is just a service specific router that handles the OnLive traffic without putting all the load solely on your cable router.
2. The Cost to "Buy" or "Lease" a game:
"Buying" a game is exactly what it sounds like. Once you "Buy" a game you have access to it whenever you want it, forever. "Leasing" a game means you would rent it until you beat it and then you're done with it.
3. Cable Internet Bill:
Granted that's not a cost from OnLive or any other "Cloud Service", but, if you can't get online then you can't enjoy something like this. It doesn't work by magic, no online means no OnLive.
So not only are you paying for access to the service, you pay to buy games on the service too. That's like having to pay to get into a store. Would you pay a "Cover Charge" to get into Wal-Mart? I sure as hell wouldn't. The first one of these services that gives you the games for free while charging a little more for the subscription price is going to rape the market and kill it's competitors. Then again I'm sure all these services will off "certain" games for free just for being a member. They'll only try to charge you for a new game while it's new most likely, then give it to you for "free" as part of the service. When "God of War 6" comes out they'll give you "God of War 5" for free but they'll charge you $50 for the new one.
Most likely they'll tack on fees for everything. It would be like buying smaller games on Steam or Impulse. Like buying all the X-Com games on Steam. They're so old now they charge you 15 bucks for All the games packaged into one bundle. The Cloud Services will have things like this too so they can increase their profits.
As we can see in this thread and the other one a lot of people like the idea of not having to upgrade their computers anymore. That alone scares me. This hasn't even happened yet and already people don't want to buy expensive technology. In my opinion though, when you don't have the technology to do things at your own hands, you're saying you'd rather pay someone else to take care of it for you, thus giving away the power you have over that technology and what you can do with it. Things you won't be able to do with "Cloud Gaming", like make Mods.
What would happen if Elemental came out on OnLive and on OnLive only? We wouldn't be able to make Mods because we wouldn't have any of the game's files on our systems. No Files = No Way to Change those Files. Of course it also means no way to copy those files and pass them around on the internet for free, which is the companies goal, but the side effect kills Modding and a bunch of other things too.
The companies them-selves will have to Host the games, run the games (graphics and all), host your saved games and user profiles, and all this requires space which costs money. If a game has been out for 5, 6, or even 10 years, slowly the player base will Decrease more and more eventually reaching the time when the cost to host the game surpasses the money they make from people playing that game. At that point the company will want to take that game Off the Cloud to make room for a game that will make more money.
This is bound to happen at some point. Retro games are cool to a lot of people, but the major money is made on new games and cashing in on Hype and Sequels. Why would they waste money hosting "Final Fantasy 1" when everyone wants to play "Final Fantasy 14" ?
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