So, the truth has finially come out...
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/21/science/earth/21climate.html
Man created global warming has been politicized to the point that scientists have been rigging the results of tests to get the desired result. This is not science, and all those "scientists" should lose their grants, teaching licenses, and be barred from ever touching a beaker
Seriously, has science died? What has the world come to that the nations of the world were getting close to passing greatly limiting, taxing and controling treaties all based on false information? What should be done with the whole "green" agenda that has now been proven to be based on lies?
Thoughts?
--- Over 1000 replies makes this a very hot topic ---
Therefore I will continue to update with the unraveling of the IPCC and politicized science. (new articles will be placed first)
Please keep the topics a little more on point from here on out, thanks.
- Glacer calculation show to be false, and scientist refuses to apologize...
- More errors in report?
- Opinion paper - Rigging climate 'consensus'
To paraphrase -
and
See where this is going?
Thanks for the illustrative exchange, btw, couldn't have done it without you
Where did I ever assume omniscience? Second, where did I ever call you stupid? In fact, I can find a few examples where you (and others) did just that of me. But, I never called you stupid. I always am careful that I don't. What I DID say is that everytime you post there is more and more stuff that I have to correct you on. That is true and it makes arguing with you very exhaustive.
Yes, I can read source code (depending on what it is), but my background in the languages that I do know very well (C, C++, Java, PHP, PERL, Python, etc) has helped me breakdown code that I am not familiar with. My background is in network security, so my programming knowledge is more toward the security side of things. The debuggers that I usually use when working in Windows is OllyDbg (my favorite because it makes JMPs and reading what is in memory and handling it so easy!) and WinDbg. When I am working in Unix/Linux though, I just use the built in gdb debugger.
But, what does my experience or your experience have to do with anything that you posted above? I never claimed you were dumb as I said, nor did I claim that you didn't have any experience. What I did say though that what you posted in this thread was wrong (and certainly doesn't show your experience to be what it is).
I like how you turn the conversation (when I've shown you that you were wrong) to claiming that I am 1) assuming things and 2) Don't know as much as I claim to.
You've attempted to side step the real argument at hand (post #1124) and have resorted to other things in order to take attention away from the fact that you were wrong.
So how about we just say that your last post never happened and you can take a look at my previous post once more and realize that you were wrong. Once that is done, then we can continue. Let's keep the name calling (and the assumption of such) to a minimum.
Thanks.
Anyone that finds me entertaining can't be all bad, you're not exactly being fair in your characterization though. Pot, meet Kettle.
I can dig that label though, I do seem to lack the ability to communicate with these primates after all. If I were reaching them, if anyone were, at least one of them would have registered that they were wrong about the surface station data being modified in a scientific manner.
Out of curiosity, why did you choose that selection to quote? It's... odd?
I did! For emphatic effect, you're still stupid!
You sure you know what you are talking about?
This is the problem right here. You have the raw number, and the end result. You check the station details. You now have everything you need to know. What they do to come up with a bullshit number is irrelevant. There are more than enough obviously bullshit numbers to see. Reading the code to find out what they're doing is for after you determine it's bullshit. It's a point of curiosity, not something relevant to the status of bullshit.
A class 1/2 temperature station that is adjusted upwards by more than one degree is bullshit, period. It's adjusted for more than the margin of error, and adjusted in the wrong direction. The only cooling effect is shade, there isn't any on them. The error margin for the electronics is less than 1%, it can't be that showing low temperatures.
Darwin Zero, despite the claims that the article proving it was debunked, shows an irrefutably impossible situation. The temperature station has been modified well outside the one degree margin of error, over three degrees, and in the most improbable of directions for a site near an air strip in perfect agreement with four other sites in the same area. None of the surrounding sites, which are all rural and thus should have less error from warming, show such an increase either. I looked, at all of them. It's bullshit.
If you need it in really small words, 3 is more than 1.
I highly recommend this book:
http://www.amazon.com/Short-History-Nearly-Everything/dp/0767908171
It's a great book and has nothing at all to do with global warming but instead gives you a good idea of the industry of science over the centuries.
To make a long story short: Scientists have had a consensus on many things over the centuries. Those who disagreed were often ridiculed. Sometimes those consensuses turned out to be right. But all too often they were totally wrong.
Moreover, the more broadly one looks at climate and climate related sciences the more obvious it is that we know very very little about it still and that when we talk about "scientific consensus" we are actually talking about a very very small clique of people who actually seriously study this material.
Uh, yes you could since clearly you believe in libel and slander. I said none of those. My words (which you cannot edit) stand on their own. You are very bigotted against religious people. That is not a crime against the law, but it is not intelligent either. I know you like to pretend you are some how smarter than the rest of the unwashed masses, but that only makes you arrogant, not smart.
I quoted the part. You correct me? No, you lectured me, you have not corrected me yet. I have not made statements of error, so you cannot correct me. You can incorrectly assume (or practice omniscience - you choose your poison).
Again you claim omniscience when none is present (or you assume - again you can choose - I dont make you do anything). How little you know about me, and your purported speciality I do not know, but I do know you do not know how to convert programs to other langauges. The source code for the spaghetti code that was used to manipulate the data is contorted and borderline criminal. And guess what? is not used on all the raw data! (But that is beside this point). Just because YOU cant do it, does not mean it cannot be done.
Clearly you have not shown me any thing that you could correct, but you insist upon correcting me. I have had to correct you on several occassions, but have not been so arrogant to do so without at least linking to a source that proved you wrong. I dont assume (or practice omniscience - again your choice).
As for Post 1124, I would refer you to post 1117. You are refuted.
The funny (sad, wrong, incorrect, mis-labeled, fraudulent claim - pick one) about the consensus is that it only exists in the politicians speeches. Clearly there is no consensus on the issue. Nor should there be. While some scientists (since many of the key players have no background in climatology) are using fraud, and deceit to further their cause (Hansen, Schmidt, Mann, Briffa, Wahl, Amman, pachauri, Jones and the latest Menne), they have to claim some legitimacy. But their "consensus" collegues are exposing them daily in their lies and fraud.
AGW may be a valid hypothesis. but Until Climatologists can clean up their camp, all anyone can know with any degree of certainity is that the current findings are based on manipulated data and outright lies.
By your definition of "omniscience, anyone who has a debate with you would be considered "omniscient". Yourself included. I've done nothing different than you've done. We've both called each other wrong on the same topics.
Where have I tried to correct you? Ummm, just about every single post of mine on the last couple pages. I don't think I need to quote myself. But, again. You've done the same. If anyone is claiming to be above anyone here, it is you claiming to be above me by bringing personal things into this. Me claiming you are/were wrong about something and then showing/explaining examples of why is no different than you have done.
Your claim that because I said that "the more you post the more there is to correct you on" is being omniscient is totally off. I feel, that everytime you post, there are more things that I have to reply to. Nothing omniscient about that. Notice I did not say that "everything" you post I have to correct you on. But, even if I did say "everything", wouldn't make it omniscient.
In fact, if anyone between the two of us has brought in personal attacks, it has been you. I've left all things personal about this and have strictly stuck with all the topics at hand. You however have said numerous things that have crossed the border from being a debate into a personal swipe.
So don't act all high and mighty and call out others' claim to omniscience when your posts themselves have been not so far from the like.
Another example of hypocrisy? When you said that I was assuming things of you. What have you done? You've assumed that I have never translated code from one language to another. Who is the one bringing personal experiences into this again? You, not me. And again you were wrong about such assumptions. Assumptions that you claimed I am making, when in fact it is you making them. I do know how to convert code into another language. The thing is that anyone familiar with code finds it a waste of a time to do so unless moving to another platform. But, again what does that have to do with the fact that you were wrong about the excel macros (which is what I was referring to)?
Unless you are actually injecting code into the Excel process and hijacking it, then Excel will NOT do what the GISS's program does. And if you are hijacking the process, then you are no longer running Excel and the use of a macro is pointless. Excel is there to simply take the raw data from either the stations or the data that GISTemp comes up with and plot it into graphs or organize it for presentation. Can you get Excel to do what GISS's programs does? Sure, like I said. But, you can also get any program you want to get it to do whatever you want it to do by injecting code into it. That doesn't mean that it is the original program doing it though.Was the code that Hansen used very unorganized? Yes, you are correct on that. It is very unorganized and doesn't follow many conventions and has very little commenting to help. But, to call it criminal is just obsurd. You can't call anyone criminal for writing code in anyway. It is their code, they can write it however the hell the want. When Hansen and his team wrote that code, they weren't under the scrutiny they were now, so they weren't really expecting for anyone but their own team to need to read their code. It is like having a messy desk. You know where you might place things, but if you ask anyone else to find something they'd have no idea. Does that make them a criminal? No. Hansen was even going to clean up the code for release, but people just wanted the code released as it was. So he released it (with a little bit of huffing on his part however). But, that is hardly criminal. The code does what is expected. Does it take longer to read? Yes, but that doesn't make Hansen a "criminal" as you put it.
You're just another perfect example of hypocrisy and you need to look up the definition of "omniscient".
@ Frogboy - good book. As I remember it really brought home for me how fragile our place on this world and in this universe is.
If a majority group of epidemiologists published findings that implied a strain of airborne Ebola was surfacing in Michigan would you really talk about how scientific consensus has often proved wrong, historically? From a historical perspective the price of being wrong is exquisitely low relative to the price of being right but ignored, and I'm sorry but your personal commitment to solar and recycling or Willie's living close to work have no more effect on AGW than owning your own hazmat suit would on an Ebola epidemic.
Unpalatable as you may find government intervention in your life in this case it would be necessary. Debating what form that intervention takes will be far more productive in the long-term than trying to cast doubt on what the thermometers say or how we read them.
@ Psychoak - Lets say Darwin's data is corrupted, either through error or intentionally (I don't belive this to be the case, but for the sake of convo). So if one point in a hundred points of data is flawed then you can say all points of data are flawed?
I see a swan. The swan is black. Therefore all swans are black.
It's interesting that all of the busy and industrious individuals who believe as you do can't produce any more ambiguity than that.
@ Dr Guy
1. No seriously, your failure to grasp the nature of metaphor and rhetoric in this case has helped discredit you tremendously. Thank you again
2. Your words do stand on their own, though I'm sure that at this point you wish you could rescind many of them. The Excel convo with Clonmac is particularly embarassing, but you've truly distinguished yourself in any number of comments
3. I do believe in libel and slander, i.e. they both exist. If you are attempting to say that I defamed you either by calling you a buffoon or bigoted against buffoons then that would be libel rather than slander, since I did it in writing, but it would be a tough case because I could claim Opinion rather than Fact and the rulings still haven't come in as to whether internet forums qualify for "published" defamation.
4. I am biased against religious people the way you are biased against buffoons. Of the two of us I'm not sure who comes out ahead, as at least religious bigotry has precedent ^^
5. It's hard not to be arrogant when you are the one I'm debating with, honestly, but I'm going to bow out at this point and let you continue to demonstrate your truly epic command of this topic
GL out there!
Not to take sides in this pointless (though entertaining enough) debate, but this is a very bad analogy. If there were a strain of airborne Ebola one would imagine that someone had actually found it, cultered it, tested it, ... This is not possible to do with GW which can only be modeled so far.
In your ebola case you likely have actual physical proof of the ebola strain. In the GW case you have warming, but linking that warming to any one (or a thousand) different conditions has not been proven.
Actually for the first several days Ebola is often mistaken for malaria, typhoid, or the flu, and the set of tests developed for it until very recently have had high false positive variability.
The methodology used by the CDC et al. to connect the dots between seemingly isolated cases and build models of infection is the same as used by climatologists to model AGW so the comparison seems relevant
Were circumstances only a little different (give Ebola a timescale of decades, make it cost us something to fix, and set the focus in places like Bangladesh and Italy) many of the angels in this thread would happily decry the epidemiologists as doomsayers too, and do everything they could to cast doubt on the data collection and interpretation they use to create their models...
If only you were paying enough attention, you'd know that was a stupid retort. Australia is an entire continent. The temperature station data used to prove global warming in the IPCC report consists of nine stations for that entire continent.
Nine. Even if you don't look at any other stations and find similar gross errors in judgement, you're a long ways away from one in a hundred. Even if every other station on the continent is perfectly accurate, you're blowing half the rise in temperature on the continent of Australia. Australia is now well within the norm for normal climate fluctuation.
You can very easily see the problem with the data by looking at the GISS maps over at NASA. Pick 1998 for your anomaly, and look at the difference between the adjusted value and the GISS analysis. That's all stations, instead of just the good ones. 40% of those stations are measuring hot two degrees or better. Remarkably, after the GISS analysis, they still have the same rise in temperature. No correcting for urbanization, unkept stations, nothing. The totals should be around a degree lower just based on taking the minimums for the error margins. A station that's reading 2-5 degrees hot can't be accurate, and failed maintenance or urbanization does not produce a lower temperature. The one thing that can is already ruled out, shading.
The IPCC reports show the same thing, they got rid of the stations that were reading too hot, then adjusted the remaining stations upwards to match the temperature trend they wanted to see. It's about as bogus as something can get, which is saying something considering the UN is as corrupt as most third world dictatorship.
And thus why the analogy fails. Because the scenario you posit is not accurate. If you're going to bother with an analogy it should be consistant. It's a pet peeve of mine, because so often someone will say that something is like something else, when what they mean is that some minor aspect of something is similar to some minor aspect of something else.
Especailly when discussing science and how science is done. Climatology is not done using normal falsifiable hypotheses (in so far as we are limiting ourselves to the question of the relation between CO2 and temperature), because to do so would clearly be pointless if we are to be able to respond to any potential projected outcome.
A better analogy would be to compare what the West is (or should be) doing in response to potential Iranian nuclear devices. But of course that's a political question, much as GW has become overly politicized.
You can't compare a finding of fact to a hypothesis.
But your analogy does illustrate the crux of the issue. AGW advocates don't tend to recognize the difference between a hypothesis, a theory, and a known fact.
This particular issue is one I find hard to feel very passionate about because regardless of whether AGW is real or not, we're not going to be doing anything about it.
The only thing I do find interesting is the emotional investment its proponents have in it. I consider evolution pretty well proven but I certainly don't get angry or annoyed if someone believes in intelligent design or creationism or whatever. Whatever floats their boat.
That's very true. If it does turn out to be true, there really isn't much of any realistic solution that would be feasible on a short time scale. A short time scale being 100 years. So, if their predictions for the next century do turn out to be true, there probably isn't much that can be done.
I think the only viable solution would be some sort of sequestration technology. Something that wouldn't involve economic stress, but more of a new economic industry. Not sure how it would get funded (the money to keep a sequestration plant open would need to come from somewhere). But, it is definitely one of the less extreme solutions if the technology could catch up with the idea.
What I find most irritating though is the people who argue more about whether or not the globe is actually warming or not. Debating about whether humans are causing it is fine. Because that helps further the science and understanding of how the Earth's climate functions. Debating about what to do about it, if anything, is fine. Because if we are a cause of it, then it is reasonable to want to change that. But, debating about whether the globe is actually warming is just silly to me. To me, I've found more than enough evidence of the Earth actually warming to move it from theory to fact.
But, that's exactly what the last several pages of this thread have been about though. They've been about breaking down the idea that the Earth is not warming. Numerous studies have shown that, yet the last several pages have been about finding a few of those studies and trashing them. For what purpose? To try and debunk the idea that the Earth isn't warming? To lessen perception of the rate of such warming? Because such a debate of actual warming is not about whether humans are causing it or not. So any type of "vested" green interests aren't concerned with global warming. They're concerned with anthropogenic warming. So what good does debate about temperature change get us?
People have been trashing GISTemp data over a few spatial lapses that create temperature map anomalies. Or they are squabbling over sparse station data (while I admit it is an issue) that in the grand scheme of the study makes no major difference to the results of annual temperature change. They forget that satellite data is used to adjust for UHI. Or they forget that ocean SST data is incorporated (most people even forget to include ocean data when they pull those anomaly maps). The ocean is one of the best indicators for global temperature trends! They don't understand that while active station data has decrease over the years, a vast amount of mean temperature data comes from over thousands of stations, so those few stations still provide good insight to the change trends. But, no, let's continue to argue about whether or not a particular city is being represented correctly by a study that is design to measure the temperature change trend of the entire planet.
I think this statements sums it up of the temperature trends:
The reality of global surface warming in this century is supported by a variety of proxy evidence including ground temperature measurements in widely distributed boreholes (Deming, 1995) and near global retreat of alpine glaciers. Oerlemans (1994) used the trends of 48 world-wide glaciers to estimate from glacier dynamics a global warming rate of 0.66±0.2°C per century. We conclude that, although urban warming and other errors deserve careful study, global warming is not an artifact. This is reaffirmed by the spatial distribution of the warming illustrated below.
So with that all said. Why the hell has this thread turned into an argument over weather or not the Earth is actually warming when it clearly is? If you want to debate about the climate models and whether or not humans are causing or if CO2 is causing measureable temperature changes or what the outcomes might be if temperature continue to rise another 2 degrees ... that is all fine! Debate away! But, the Earth is warming! Get over it already. Jeez.
There probably isn't much we can do about it, so why debate about it? Hell, temperatures may go down the next decade. Who knows?! But, at least debating about whether or not it will go down is a much more productive debate as opposed to whether or not it has been going up and by how much! lol
Well outside of this thread (which I don't really keep track of all that often) the question is usually one of the rate at which the warming is progressing. And if that warming is part of a natural trend so projecting it forward 100 years is valid or not.
The globe gets hot, the globe gets cold, all without man doing anything. *shrug* to me the point is that we should be looking at adaptation techniques because regardless of what the final verdict is on how much man contributes to temperature change, we know damn well that climate is not stationary and will change over 100s of years. All of this babble about AGW and CO2 only distracts us from the work that really should be funded and undertaken.
No, just as always you do it again. You see I got tired of complaining about people putting words into my mouth (as you just did), so I changed how I described it. instead of accusing you of putting words into my mouth (which you just did AGAIN), I merely accused you of reading my thoughts - being omniscient. You can debate me all you want - when you debate what I write and not what you want me to say. And you are right, I dont have much tollerance for people who decide they do not like what I write so construct strawmen and then accuse me of stating the strawmen. I fully know we all do that at times, but when it becomes the norm instead of the exception, it gets very tiresome.
No, correct and debate are 2 different things. You have debated me at every post, but not corrected me. So when you say you "corrected me", that implies you were no longer debating and hence lecturing. On what? your opinion? The only time you TRIED to correct me was in insisting I did not read the 87 or 99 reports you linked. And then you could have only known that if you were a mind reader, or more accurately omniscient since you dont know what mind to read.
Argumentum Ad extremus - I admit I have done it, but hardly "many times". I try to steer away from it for the very reason it irks me. Please, try not to exagerate to such a degree.
I did not assume, I did ask. I dont know you from adam. For all I know you could be Bil lGates. So I asked for clarification.
I can see where the rest of your diatribe is going, so I will just end it here. I see no reason in repeating what is written here, nor in hearing your incessant false accusations. Beleive what you will. Kestrel is just trying to be petty and argumentative, without offering anything of substance. I used an "Reductio ad absurdum" to point that out, and then he went postal. He is a troll, nothing more, and not worthy of any more time.
I think that says all there needs to be said about you - no seriously. As I told Clonmac, you are a troll, nothing more. And one with a very low threshold for any type of interaction. Please, do what you will, but I need not waste my time on your juvenile temper tantrums any longer.
Succint, pointed, and accurate. It cuts through all the rhetoric and obfuscation and gets right to the heart of the matter.
Excellently put.
I will add that not all of us being called "deniers" (by the body AGW religious) have denied any hypothesis. What we are skeptical of are the methods and actions of a select group of people who do not care about science, just a political agenda. And what we do know (not deny, know) is that nothing concrete can come of this issue until some semblance of integrity, honesty, and dedication to the scientific method is established in this field.
Hehe, I just read an article stating that the hole in the ozone layer over the southern hemisphere counteracts the greenhouse effect there. So now the bad bad hole is suddenly all good coz it's lessening global warming. Funny that, no?
I don't understand how this thread is still alive without Mumble.
It's actually supposed to increase surface warming, but further cool the upper troposphere and beyond. They're trying to explain the voodoo CO2 effect not working by blaming surface temperatures on something that happens in the stratosphere, while claiming the exact opposite for the theory to work inh the first place.
I stopped reading this thread once it passed 1000 replies because I got tired of the repetition. It is funny that literally the moment I pop my head back in I'm somehow the topic of conversation, but whatever floats your boat.
BTW if you hadn't noticed the so called "Climategate" is long since over. This was "news" only in the US and the rest of the world is just laughing at US, which is pretty much the state of affairs in most everything as per Inhofe's reception in Copenhagen.
Sen. James Inhofe Called "Ridiculous"
Well, OK then. Must be so.
That is one of the most useless articles I've ever seen you post. Wtf for? This is about as valuable as a piece on whoever the latest tramp starlet is flashing.
Maybe you could post an explanation, one that actually explains something, on how the surface station record is supposed to be filled with stations modified outside the margin of error.
There are many great features available to you once you register, including:
Sign in or Create Account