So, the truth has finially come out...
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/21/science/earth/21climate.html
Man created global warming has been politicized to the point that scientists have been rigging the results of tests to get the desired result. This is not science, and all those "scientists" should lose their grants, teaching licenses, and be barred from ever touching a beaker
Seriously, has science died? What has the world come to that the nations of the world were getting close to passing greatly limiting, taxing and controling treaties all based on false information? What should be done with the whole "green" agenda that has now been proven to be based on lies?
Thoughts?
--- Over 1000 replies makes this a very hot topic ---
Therefore I will continue to update with the unraveling of the IPCC and politicized science. (new articles will be placed first)
Please keep the topics a little more on point from here on out, thanks.
- Glacer calculation show to be false, and scientist refuses to apologize...
- More errors in report?
- Opinion paper - Rigging climate 'consensus'
I'm tired of linking to the same damn information in every post just so you can pretend it doesn't exist. There are probably fifty links in this thread already that show Vostok core samples. You yourself have posted quite a few of them. When you bother to actually reply to one of the irrefutable facts in my last post, I'll give you the time of day again.
I would not call someone naive, if i thought Al Gore does all this from good of heart and not for money
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=54528
By the way, what do you think about him plainly lying about the consequences of global warming in the Inconvenient Truth?
http://abcnews.go.com/US/TenWays/story?id=3719791&page=1
Finally, he goes on to say how limiting CO2 emissions is bad, but new technologies is good. I totally agree that new technologies is the future and where most of our money goes. In fact, that is where Bjorn and I agree most on. But where he continues to be naive is in thinking that those new technologies will get used without any type of cap&trade system! Anyone who has been keeping an eye on the green section knows how difficult it is for these green start up companies and how hard it is for these new green technologies to get adopted. Why is it hard? Because they are WAY more expensive than our old technologies!
Yes it is expensive, but this is how it works with the new technologies/products. If the tech is really good and innovative or it does have a good marketing, it will prove itself and people will buy it. Then the costs and prices will fall. Just look at flat LCD monitors. When they were new, they were pretty expensive and only few people could afford them. But now they are standard and they become standard naturally, nobody needed to force people to buy them. Imagine though, somebody came ten years ago and forced you to buy one for those exorbitant prices, just because the LCD is supposedly better on eyes than CRT. Would you fine with that?
And if no one buys into these new technologies, then they will die off before they ever get a chance to see the light of day! It has happened countless times in the past! This is where cap&trade systems can come in. It gives businesses incentives and greater returns when adopting new technologies that help them become self-sustaining and emissions-neutral. Business that take the time to put investments into these technologies get money back! This not only helps fuel the green sector which means more money for R&D, but also helps turn the economy less fossil fuel dependant.
Your way of thinking is clearly totalitarian and "lefty" as hell. You basically want to force people buy the product instead of the another one via cap and trade, cause you think it is good for them. But this is unethical and bad. The people should have a choice what to buy and government has no right to force them to be "green".
Believe it or not, the best way is the natural way. It just needs more time. Pushing something because someone think it is the best for the people, proved to be wrong.
I find it funny that you are feeding off of others for sources and you grabbed that abcnews article that Dr Guy posted in the other forums. But, since you've asked me to specifically respond to that I will.
I've read that article it is extremely vague and also misinterpret Al Gore's words. I will respond to each item as they are reference in that article below going right down the line 1, 2 ,3, 4, etc. Also, just out of curiousity, have you seen An Inconvenient Truth? If so, then you can verify my statements as true below...
1) First off, Burton claims that Al Gore said that the melting of either West Antarctica or Greenland will result in up to 20 feet of sea level rise. This is wrong. What Gore really said was that if both West Antarctic and Greenland melted, then we could see up to 20 feet of sea level rise. According to many models, this is still true, but on the high side and unlikely. The sea level rise numbers are correct, it is just that it isn't likely that both Greenland and Antarctica will both melt in the next few decades. But, seeing as how Gore claims that it could be "up to" that amount, he is still not wrong. Claiming the high side of numbers is never wrong. See how Burton twists around his words to make is own statements and falsify Gore's?
2) This one is thrown about a lot and is mostly an editing error in the way it sounds. Gore isn't claiming that all citizens of these low lying countries are being evacuated, but in his speeches refers to groups of people that have to evacuated. All of these people are the ones he refers to. In fact, you can check it out yourself if you do some research on such communities like Tuvalu. The Prime Minister there has even said that some of its inhabitants should evacuate to New Zealand and New Zealand has agreed to accept an annual quota of 75 evacuees.
3) Again, Burton twists Gore's words around claiming the Gore said that the ocean conveyor will shut down. He never said that in the documentary. He talked about the incident that happened when during the receeding of a previous ice age, the (then) Northeastern American glacier melted and poured tons of freshwater into the Atlantic. This was discovered to have caused part of western Europe into an ice age for a period of time. He never claimed that it will happen again, but said that we should be looking out for other large pools of water that can form on similiar glaciers. He NEVER claimed that global warming will cause this, but he did say that if it ever did happen, it would be an incidental concequence of global warming.
4) This one is just silly and seems as if it is here just to pad Burton's "9" errors from Gore. There are countless scientists that will give you hundreds of reasons backing the claim of a correlation between CO2 and the global temperature. This is one of the main debates of global warming today and Burton throws it in as an error as if he has any merit to claim it as such. Riiiiiight.
5) Again a play on words from Burton. It is widely known that as the average annual surface temperature increases, the amount of glacial ice you will have will decrease. Regardless of the cause of such warming, that is fact. The less cold days you have to accumulate that ice, the less ice there will be year in and year out. This is what Gore pointed out in An Inconvenient Truth. If Burton wants to claim that the reason for having less cold days during the year is NOT because of global warming, then he is in the minority on that. If he wants to claim that Gore was specifically saying that human-induced warming was causing those glaciers to retreat, then he is sadly misinterpreting.
6) Burton himself claims that regional climate change could be a cause of it. Regional climate changes can be a result of global warming. One find in many studies of climate is that global temperatures (regardless of what they are) redistribute where precipitation goes. So if the earth is warming as Gore claims, then places like Lake Chad can be adversally effected. He showed suched examples in the movie showing that because there is warming going on, places like Lake Chad are effected. Lake Chad has seen extreme droughts in the recent decade and one of the major contributors is the climate change the region has seen.
7) No where in An Inconvenient Truth did Al Gore claim that Hurricane Katrina was caused by global warming. Again, a misinterpretation (and/or blatant skewing of Gore's words) of what Gore said in the film. Gore showed clips of the hurricane because it was recent and fresh in everyone's mind. He didn't say that global warming caused Katrina. He then went on to say that when ocean temperatures are warming, it can result in fiercer hurricane like what we saw with Katrina. He also made a point to say that, while the number of hurricane we receive each year won't change because of global warming, the magnitude of them will. If you watch the extended scenes on the DVD, he goes even deeper into this fact and the research for it. There have been numerous studies that show that higher ocean temperatures result in stronger hurricanes, but not an increased number of them.
8) No where in An Inconvenient Truth does Al Gore claim that polar bears are currently dying because of having to swim far distances. At one point he shows a CGI bear swimming in an ocean with no ice around, but he never claimed that was now.
9) This one is another stretch for Burton as he couldn't even deny that global warming won't have an effect on coral reef bleaching. He just throws it on anyway to pad his "9" errors. Numerous studies have shown that even a conservative temperature increase of 1-2 degrees C would cause regions between 20-30 degrees N to experience sustained warming that falls within the lethal limits of most reef-building coral species. Coral are extremely small species that are very susceptible to temperature changes. To deny that this wouldn't happen is to deny that it isn't currently happening.
Burton's claims of errors in Gore's statements are simply misguided and misinterpreted. He twists words around in ways that are actually true when said, but aren't Gore's words at all.
As far as your economic views go, to compare LCD economics to energy economics is a very rough comparison. They are extremely different economic models and the simple "upgrading" from one model tv to another doesn't compare. New technology LCDs are manufactured and funded by existing companies and purchased by consumers. Most of these green technologies are not exorbitantly funded and need to be sold at large scale to businesses (not consumers to pay off). Few joint-venture capitalists are will to take part in something like that unless there are incentives for purchasers in place. Often, it results in buyers needed to be scouted out first with prototypes to see if a market is ready. This requires even more money up front. This is why half of these new technologies never even make it off the drawing board. If we want to make any sort of headway in the near future to break ourselves away from foreign petroleum reliance (for both emissions reduction and security), then we need to have incentives in place for these new technologies to make it off the drawing board.
Also, there is no "forcing anyone to buy a TV" going on. You are claiming that is how I feel and that is what "lefties" feel and that is completely wrong. A little open-mindedness goes a long way into understanding what will work best given the circumstances. No one had a gun put to their head to trade their "clunkers" in for new cars this summer. They just received incentives to do so. This is what it should be like for these new technologies. If there is no reason for people to switch, then it won't be done.
The auto industry is a perfect example of an industry that is resistant to change. Without government involvement, we'd still be driving cars with no seatbelts, airbags, ABS, and traction control. It wasn't until government forced car makers into putting seatbelts into all fleet cars that it was done. Why? Because if it cost automakers to money to put them it with no ROI, then they weren't going to do it. Look at fleet mileage standards. There was little incentive for automakers to increase MPG of their cars and doing so would cost lots of R&D, so they didn't do it. Foreign regulations were stiffer than ours so foreign auto makers already had the efficient vehicles. So as gas prices rose, people flocked to the more efficient foreign vehicle and now look where the American auto industry is at. But hey...that's capitalism for ya.
Do I even need to get into the housing mess?
Businesses are extremely resistant to change. This is why the stock market is such a good investment. It is because business do one thing and that is attempt the quickest path to profits. You put your money in the stock market and you can be sure that the businesses will hopefully put your money into an ROI churn. But that is just it. That is usually all that businesses are after. Sure, there are many valiantly run businesses out there. But, those few can't be seen as the market litmus. History has told time and time again that if we want to see an outcome from business with the consumers and citizens' best interest in mind, then you have to have at least some type of regulation.
I work in IT and in the financial sector. Ever since the housing crash, there are tons and tons of new regulations put in place. It is always easy getting those regulations put into place in hindsight. Why is it that we have to wait for bad things to happen before we realize that some regulation is good regulation?
Only ice over land can raise sea levels, any ice over water is already built into it. The ice that's disappearing in Antarctica is almost entirely over water, thus negligible, same deal with the Arctic. We get six meters out of Greenland if it melts off entirely with no gains elsewhere.
I probably shouldn't get into your views on economics, closet communists never rationalize anything, but I'm stupid so I'll bite anyway.
The financial meltdown was a joke, there was no crisis. BofA was never in danger of going under, Citigroup was never in danger of going under. The only large institutions we were going to lose were a few completely worthless brokerage companies. The internet has antiquated them, it's a miracle those dinosaurs are still alive to begin with. If Goldman Sachs were to disappear, the impact on the economy would be zip. All the money that never existed to begin with is still gone, all of the fallout that was going to happen has, it's just happened to the tax payers instead of the stupid people that got themselves into trouble. We had fewer bank closures than we did in the 80's, it wasn't even a blip compared to what caused the Great Depression.
It was also a product of government intervention, not a lack of regulation. Banks were forced to make risky loans to avoid being blacklisted, and then the loans were "secured" by Fannie and Freddie, by an implicit guarantee that our tax dollars would bail them out when it went south. If they hadn't been making loans no one in their right mind would make, they wouldn't have needed them to be guaranteed by anything to begin with. If those risky loans weren't guaranteed, market value would have been very low and the banks would be losing money on them. The financial crisis is what happens when you use private industry to enact socialism, it blows up in your face.
You're equally wrong on the auto industry. They make plenty of fuel efficient cars, the problem is they lose money on them. GMC only makes enough to pay the bills by producing trucks and SUV's, which sell at a much higher premium over the input costs. A compact car that only makes them a grand isn't enough to keep up with the legacy costs, it was indeed the loss in low mileage vehicles that took them out, but it wasn't because they weren't making any high mileage cars. GMC going under wouldn't be a problem either, they'd come out of bankruptcy without the union contracts that make it impossible to survive, and with new management that hopefully wont suck so bad. Chrysler could disappear entirely and not matter at this point.
i just bought a Yaris from Toyota. the salesman told me the particualr model i bought would have brought in, MAYBE, a $150 dollar profit for Toyota.
go me! way to stick it to the man =P
Lol, it never ceases to amaze me how many on the Right are desperately trying to revise history that’s barely 5 seconds old.
Right…so all those banks that collapsed due to the ridiculous levels of systemic risk, highlighted when lehman was allowed to fail- that was just a “blip”? how many banks have failed in the last 2 years? wasn’t it dozens and dozens? How can you say allowing sachs to fail would have no impact, when lehman and others had such a huge impact when they went down? Are you denying that the levels of systemic risk were so high, and if so could you explain why so many collapses occurred?
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meltdown/etc/script.html
This is the fallacy I see most often- people falling over themselves attempting vainly to put most of the blame on evil “government intervention”. If what you say here is true, then explain why 75% of TARP funds went to institutions NOT subject to the CRA? That’s a really nasty statistic that ive yet to see be re-spun by people like yourself. So please, educate me.
What is it with you yanks who cry "socialism" at every opportunity? i've never understood it. why does nobody in America seem to know what socialism actually is? lol.
I know that. Do you know that Antarctica is a continent? So is Greenland. I know, right? Crazy! Antarctica is actually roughly twice the size of Australia. In fact, the ice on the land doesn't even have to melt of it to be a problem. The ice on the sea holds the land ice in place. What scientists have found is that as the ice melts and the sea based ice gives away, it causes the land-based ice to slide with water acting as lubrication between it and the land. So the land based ice can give away into the sea without it having to melt first. So you are right also that a lot of what has melted in Antarctica has been sea-based ice so far (the Larsenb ice shelf, for example). That doesn't mean that there isn't cause for alarm. Quite the contrary.
Let's not also forget all the land glaciers across the globe that are melting. Normally a large portion of those glaciers stay frozen through out the year. Now many of them are disappearing and a good portion of that water gets redistributed into rivers and then out to sea. This is what is causing a lot of water shortages worldwide. Water that used to be available is now back out into the ocean and unusable...which consequently will also contribute to sea level rise.
Did you just call me a communists? Seriously? lol, wow. Anyway...
It is hard to take you serious when you claim that this recent recession wasn't a big deal. Bank closures might not have been as abundant as in the 80s, so if that is your litmus test for what is bad in economics then you are sorely mistaken. One of the reasons why we don't have as many bank failures is because of government intervention. In fact, one of the few bright spots in the financial market is how the credit union sector has managed to stay afloat without using government money (Credit Unions are what I am involved with). They've taken responsibility for themselves.
The fact that you claim that regulation is what caused the bubble to burst shows how misinformed you are and what little information you actually have on the matter. I've heard people just like you claim that Congress forced banks into loaning money to people who couldn't pay back. This is completely untrue and what they refer to is the Community Reinvestment Act. However, the CRA only governs depository banks and not investment banks. So a lot of the banks that spurred the subprime lending mess weren't regulated by CRA. The banks that made the subprime loans are banks that AREN'T regulated by the Federal Reserve or organizations that audit the compliance of CRA. Those investment firms worked directly with Lehman Bros and the likes to which the CRA didn't even apply. The CRA (and consequently Congress) didn't force banks to lend money with no-money down, throw underwriting standards out the window, or even entice those mortgage brokers you mentioned to seek out new markets to take advantage of. Nor did Congress force credit-rating agencies to put high-grade ratings on subprime debt.
Fannie and Freddie and all the subprime lenders were certainly a culprit. There was a whole era of idiocy to which many are to blame. But it comes down to investment banks (the unregulated ones out of the reach of CRA) creating demand for a "new product". They saw these subprime loans as an opportunity and then traded them using borrowed capital.
You throw out words like communism and socialism, but your use of them plainly shows your gross misunderstanding of economics and also the situation we are in.
Your views on the auto industry are also distorted. You have a gross disregard for the importance of a lot of things. Of course after a company goes through bancruptcy it is going to come out a better company. That is the whole point of bancruptcy and why we have it! Not to mention how these particular bancruptcies are going to have government scrutiny up the wazoo.
It is also no revelation that trucks have a higher selling margin that the newer and more fuel efficient cars. It is because the truck is pretty much the same truck as it was 15 years ago except with a new shiny body and stronger chassis! Yahoo!
But to prove my point that these American auto makers need regulation in order to change, if you look at the increases made to fleet fuel efficiency of the last 40 years and then look at when it was that CAFE standards were increase, they directly correlate. Then look at the times when CAFE standards relaxed...and so did American fleet fuel efficiencies. Meanwhile foreign auto makers continued to increase theirs. Let's also not forget about the tons of other benefits you gain from CAFE standards such as decreased dependance on foreign petroleum (which means we control the price of gas better), less CO2 emissions, and also prevents certain models of foreign cars from being sold here which means our domestic product can compete better.
Now don't get me wrong, I know I am talking a lot about CAFE standards. What I don't want you to think is that I am saying they are the sole contributor to the poor performing American auto industry. But, what I am saying is that it has played a large part of it. Which is why government regulation (in moderation) is a good thing.
So you can stop throwing around words like socialism and communism, like you know what they mean.
Now let's get back to global warming...
...lol, Raistlin beat me to the ripping.
The answer why not is because there are other cooling events. If I turn the temperature knob on my oven up and then open the door are you going to argue that turning the knob up doesn't raise the temperature inside the oven? The hardest part about these discussions is that there ARE answers to the questions that most people bring up. They are just ignored, because it conflicts with ideologies.
1) First off, Burton claims that Al Gore said that the melting of either West Antarctica or Greenland will result in up to 20 feet of sea level rise. This is wrong. What Gore really said was that if both West Antarctic and Greenland melted, then we could see up to 20 feet of sea level rise. According to many models, this is still true, but on the high side and unlikely. The sea level rise numbers are correct, it is just that it isn't likely that both Greenland and Antarctica will both melt in the next few decades. But, seeing as how Gore claims that it could be "up to" that amount, he is still not wrong. Claiming the high side of numbers is never wrong. See how Burton twists around his words to make is own statements and falsify Gore's?2) This one is thrown about a lot and is mostly an editing error in the way it sounds. Gore isn't claiming that all citizens of these low lying countries are being evacuated, but in his speeches refers to groups of people that have to evacuated. All of these people are the ones he refers to. In fact, you can check it out yourself if you do some research on such communities like Tuvalu. The Prime Minister there has even said that some of its inhabitants should evacuate to New Zealand and New Zealand has agreed to accept an annual quota of 75 evacuees.3) Again, Burton twists Gore's words around claiming the Gore said that the ocean conveyor will shut down. He never said that in the documentary. He talked about the incident that happened when during the receeding of a previous ice age, the (then) Northeastern American glacier melted and poured tons of freshwater into the Atlantic. This was discovered to have caused part of western Europe into an ice age for a period of time. He never claimed that it will happen again, but said that we should be looking out for other large pools of water that can form on similiar glaciers. He NEVER claimed that global warming will cause this, but he did say that if it ever did happen, it would be an incidental concequence of global warming.4) This one is just silly and seems as if it is here just to pad Burton's "9" errors from Gore. There are countless scientists that will give you hundreds of reasons backing the claim of a correlation between CO2 and the global temperature. This is one of the main debates of global warming today and Burton throws it in as an error as if he has any merit to claim it as such. Riiiiiight.5) Again a play on words from Burton. It is widely known that as the average annual surface temperature increases, the amount of glacial ice you will have will decrease. Regardless of the cause of such warming, that is fact. The less cold days you have to accumulate that ice, the less ice there will be year in and year out. This is what Gore pointed out in An Inconvenient Truth. If Burton wants to claim that the reason for having less cold days during the year is NOT because of global warming, then he is in the minority on that. If he wants to claim that Gore was specifically saying that human-induced warming was causing those glaciers to retreat, then he is sadly misinterpreting.6) Burton himself claims that regional climate change could be a cause of it. Regional climate changes can be a result of global warming. One find in many studies of climate is that global temperatures (regardless of what they are) redistribute where precipitation goes. So if the earth is warming as Gore claims, then places like Lake Chad can be adversally effected. He showed suched examples in the movie showing that because there is warming going on, places like Lake Chad are effected. Lake Chad has seen extreme droughts in the recent decade and one of the major contributors is the climate change the region has seen.7) No where in An Inconvenient Truth did Al Gore claim that Hurricane Katrina was caused by global warming. Again, a misinterpretation (and/or blatant skewing of Gore's words) of what Gore said in the film. Gore showed clips of the hurricane because it was recent and fresh in everyone's mind. He didn't say that global warming caused Katrina. He then went on to say that when ocean temperatures are warming, it can result in fiercer hurricane like what we saw with Katrina. He also made a point to say that, while the number of hurricane we receive each year won't change because of global warming, the magnitude of them will. If you watch the extended scenes on the DVD, he goes even deeper into this fact and the research for it. There have been numerous studies that show that higher ocean temperatures result in stronger hurricanes, but not an increased number of them.8) No where in An Inconvenient Truth does Al Gore claim that polar bears are currently dying because of having to swim far distances. At one point he shows a CGI bear swimming in an ocean with no ice around, but he never claimed that was now.9) This one is another stretch for Burton as he couldn't even deny that global warming won't have an effect on coral reef bleaching. He just throws it on anyway to pad his "9" errors. Numerous studies have shown that even a conservative temperature increase of 1-2 degrees C would cause regions between 20-30 degrees N to experience sustained warming that falls within the lethal limits of most reef-building coral species. Coral are extremely small species that are very susceptible to temperature changes. To deny that this wouldn't happen is to deny that it isn't currently happening.Burton's claims of errors in Gore's statements are simply misguided and misinterpreted. He twists words around in ways that are actually true when said, but aren't Gore's words at all.
You know Al Gore does not need to say something straightforward to mislead. Maybe he doesn´t say directly that and that is caused by GW, but he implies it is so and to back it uses the worst possible scenarios, which are still only merely predictions, not facts. Like the one with 20 feet searise, just because this number might be backed by some scientific study, it does not make Al Gore´s behavior right. He deliberately selected the worst predicted scenario and "forgot" to mention there are other studies which predict much lesser searise (40 cm or so, which i suppose is the one predicted by the consensus of IPCC). This is unethical and bad and whole problem of Inconvenient Truth. If you refuse to acknowledge that, then telling people only halftruths is probably fine with you.
Regarding the second link i posted (about Al Gore´s connection to carbon trade company), i did not read any other forum and do not know what you talking about. However i find it interesting how you chose to not react to it and ignored it completely.
Oh yes it does compare perfectly. If the business with the green tech is so difficult, they can quit it, or find new investors to back them up before it starts to pay them off. However they are not doing this, they are lobbying with the government to reduce carbon emissions, what will force to people to switch to their more expensive and less efficient technology. Such behavior is again unethical and bad.
You know forcing to people to switch to another tech (if only indirectly via carbon taxes) are more than incentives. And you are right, if there is no reason for people to switch, it wont be done. But this reason has to come from those green tech companies, not from government.
The american auto-industry is f*cked not because of lack of regulation, but because of poor management and producing cars nobody needs or wants. Who cares about GMC anyways? Maybe its former employees.... i find nothing wrong about the fact, that poorly managed and by state subsidied company fell to its knees. It will be swiftly replaced by another companies, which will be much more efficient and will not spend natural and human resources on creating products nobody wants just to preserve its own existence and status quo.
I do not know where you are from, but if you are such a lover of state-managed economy and regulations, i recommend youto move to North Korea or Cuba, to fully enjoy great advantages of such system.
As it is I'm more concerned about the possibility of the Yellow Stone supervolcano blowing up anytime soon than about man made global warming, considering a statistical probablity of 21.8% derived from a binomial distribution (probability of three major blows in 2.1 m years after the first one recorded).
This is really tiresome. People are ignorant and ready to believe anything the media pushes down our throats. This is not a conspiracy, the real conspiracy is the concept of global warming and how it has duped society into making alot of people alot of money (including Al gore) as well as giving goverments more power to bring in tighter and more restrictive legislation.
You really don't need to look that far to find the real facts regarding GW. Actually you don't even need fact's common sense should really be enough *sigh*
More media hysteria, werent we all supposed to be dead by Swine flu by now?
I think the important thing here is two seperate the real issue here. Is the planet warming up? Yes, maybe. But are people the reason for this. I really doubt it. and if it is all true, if anything the real problem is not emissions it's the fact there are far too many people on this earth and the population needs to be culled! Controversial stuff, but the reality is most of the worlds problem would disapeer if there were simply some sort of population control. There are simply far too many poeple and the poopulation is doing nothing but increasing...
The climate is always changing, sure lets reduce polution, this is good. But we aren't causing the planet to warm up. it's a cycle of cooling and warming which has been a part of earth since the beginning of it's existence.
Seriously people, get a grip.
Well, actually the bigger prob IMO is THE MEDIA being ready to believe and publish anything that makes for a big story and potential increase of print media circulation and people watching their news casts, these days without scrutiny...
What you call answers I call excuses.
Asking for some genuine evidence for CO2-based AGW is not asking for "absolute proof". It's all hypothesis.
I have no stake in the issue. It's not an ideological issue for me.
The hypothesis for CO2 based AGW is that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. We've increased the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere significantly since the industrial revolution. Mean temperatures have been on the increase since the 70s. Therefore, CO2 is the cause.
That's basically the hypothesis.
I just don't find the correlation to prove causation here. I am not denying it's possible, I am just skeptical of it.
And every time someone like me says "Look, if the temperature keeps going up over the next several years then more and more skeptics will start to be convinced I suspect" but AGW alarmists will argue that even if the temperature trends down, their hypothesis is just as strong which is just nonsense. Either CO2 is a powerful factor or it's not.
Well, thank you about being honest about your closemindedness. You might try another article I wrote about the religification of the AGW crowd. You fit that one to a T.
ClonMac:
Thank you Clonmac! I do appreciate the viewership.
Psychoak:
Fascinating! I do agree with your statement for the most part, but I had never seen or thought of the Brokerages the way you described them. It is one of those "D'oh" moments that when you see it, the obviousness of it becomes apparent.
Raistlin
Andhow many failed in the 80s? There is a serious disconnect between reality and hype. In order to push their new world order, the democrats have hyped this recession as the coming of Armegeddon, when it actual fact it is a recession. Banks fail all the time. Psychoak is correct that the big ones were not about to fail (nearly failing institutions do not repay bailouts in less than 18 months - see GM). Failing is not a catastrophy, but basically a social darwinism. Weeding out the weak, fat and bloated and leaving the industry healthier. When the government artificially props up bad investments, it does not make them good, just leaves the cancerous rot in the industry longer.
because it was all political, not salvational. That is the fallacy in your rebuttal - thinking that the TARP money was altruistic. It definitely was not. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Report-Stimulus-funds-not-targeted-to-states-that-need-jobs-79530417.html
clonmac:
No, Greenland is an island, not a continent.
is that necessarily relevant? i must admit im not nearly as well-versed on that particular crisis, i was barely into my teens. but as i understand it the losses involved were a tiny fraction compared to what we've seen recently. there certainly wasn't the same degree of systemic risk, which is the whole point.
you'll really need to qualify this statement. what exactly to you mean by "new world order"? your answer to this question will determine whether any of us can continue to take you seriously.
i suggest you check your calendar and check who was president at the time of TARP #1. and i also query your references to "recession", i certainly am not talking about the recession.
banks have not pulled down other banks to such an extent since the depression. certainly the world wasn't affected nearly as much during the 80s collapses as they were in 2008.
Psychoak is correct that the big ones were not about to fail (nearly failing institutions do not repay bailouts in less than 18 months - see GM).
im not sure i follow. there are several examples of banks that required bail-outs during the crisis that have since paid the money back. im not really sure how you can refute that. its a matter of public record. indeed, the whole point of the bail-out was to enable banks to do exactly that. the first bank in trouble NOT to receive a bailout, lehman brothers, fell like a stack of cards. are you saying its a coincidence that the banks who received bailouts prior to this stayed afloat, and those like lehman who didn't, failed?
Failing is not a catastrophy, but basically a social darwinism. Weeding out the weak, fat and bloated and leaving the industry healthier. When the government artificially props up bad investments, it does not make them good, just leaves the cancerous rot in the industry longer.
look champ, im not really here to receive a poor ideological lesson any first-year fanatic could give me. i understand the nature of capitalism blah blah blah. ideological platitudes have no place when we're talking about specific examples in specific situations. not many people here, including myself, would disagree with your assessment as a general principle; but only blind adherents to esoteric rhetoric would claim that exceptions do not exist. this was an exception. an exception rabid free marketeers, such as paulson and bernanke thankfully recognised. the fact that such people who worshipped free enterprise and hated extreme government intervention were willing to do what they despised, speaks volumes for the severity of the crisis. it certainly is far more compelling than those who dismiss the concerns out of hand, due to pre-conceived ideological positions.
lol, now you have completely lost me. why on earth are you arguing about the stimulus when when we're talking about TARP? they are completely separate issues.TARP had nothing to do with jobs and everything to do with preventing a financial sector meltdown. could you explain a little more about what you mean by TARP being "political"? are you alleging that the funds were spent on assets that weren't toxic? why are you quoting a news story about the reinvestment and recovery act?
The best part of a beautiful post, seriously had me in that place between laughing and crying.
When it comes to money you don't know much about the world outside your window, do you?
Life is a learning experience - to those not closeminded. There is no homework, just constant learning.
I think a lot of people have been rude, in a sense, to Mumblefratz. Not in any sense that you should be apologetic for, but in this way. . .
All he has done is cited credible sources, laid out, articulated FOR YOU, and refuted refutations on said sources (with other sources). The most logical thing I saw in refutation to him was a post which perhaps hints to a conspiracy theory in which all credibility is lost when you become a "skeptic" or denier.
Seriously, if you're just going to scream conspiracy theory, then go out somewhere and do something about it if you feel that truly so. Otherwise, as a reader, I assume you're just trolling. As for the people who have attempted to cite sources (although I've not seen any credible yet in this thread) in refutation to Mumblefratz, I applaud you in your effort, but perhaps you need to look into more credible sources.
Other than that general overview of how I think this thread has gone so far (after reading it), I have two things I wish to say.
1: Mumblefratz, did you make a response to that one GIF image that was borderline meme? #288. If so, you need just point me to reply number and I will read it. I understand, on my own, how ridiculous that GIF image is, I would just like to see you approach it.
2: There are only two stances which seem counter to Mumblefratz which I see as anywhere close to logical.
a. Frogboy's skeptic stance based on the knowledge that it is still a hypothesis. One would respond to this that there is no clear distinction between a hypothesis which recently became a scientific theory and a scientific theory which will be born of a hypothesis tomorrow, but it's healthy to behave this way.
b. A certain post which claims anyone who becomes skeptic/denial about AGW becomes uncredible. This is borderline conspiracy theory. . . but it's somewhat believable on a practical scale. However, this would have to mean that every time an individual in a credible body became a skeptic, most within that body would denounce them. We've yet to see an entire body dissent, which does say a lot. It says that not enough have dissented for me to care about them. One would then have to steer into the world of Government-Alien collaberation and the Illuminati taking over the world to make this out to be anything other than its face value. While possible, it's highly unlikely.
With regards to those who would suggest a conspiracy isn't necessary to push out dissenters as a result of some kind of financial incentive, I would disagree with you on at least the Idea that even half of those involved in the research leaning toward the affirmation of AGW would experience any financial gains from doing so.
In conclusion, unless you truly believe there is a conspiracy going on or are holding a healthy dose of skepticism as a result of its still hypothetical status, then I'm going to suggest that you're not being fair at all to Mumblefratz.
You're welcome. ...and yes, I know. Simple mistype on my part, lol.
Wow, yet another person essentially calling me a socialist? You're simplistic views on the economy are very ignorant. You are an idealist who feels that all encompassing and complete laissez faire is good laissez faire. That is so far from how things work it isn't even funny. I am a capitalist. On the side I run an internet company along with my full time job. I love it and I wouldn't have it any other way. People calling me a socialist and even indirectly implying like you have is and insult and as I have said only shows your ignorance on the issue. Government regulation in certain aspects of the economy is needed, plain and simple.
Again, your views on comparing simple consumer electronics upgrades to the troubles of the green sector just shows how simple your economic views are. It is much more complex like that. LCD TVs are simply an upgrade to an existing technology. Everyone has a spot in there living room ready for a new TV to replace their current one. Everyone sits down at night to watch a TV each week. Such is the consumer electronics market. The same goes for cell phones, computers, etc. People already have cell phones and upgrading to the next requires practically nothing of the consumer or the business.
However, the green sector is something new entirely. Fossil fuels have been used for centuries and for the most part, they have been used in the same way. The thing that has changed over time is how they are refined. But, when it comes to using them...we simply burn them. But, here comes "green" technology set to change all that. This is something that only happens a few times a millenium. When new young technologies look to compete with a technology that has been in existance for longer than anyone has been alive. To compare it to upgrading your TV is just plain wrong.
Many of these green startup companies are going against a much stronger competitor in the oil companies. The oil companies already have the infrastructure and the wealth in place. The startups don't. How do we ever expect companies to adopt new methods and technologies by giving up their old habits that are so easy? People can't simply buy an electric car for their driveway. Companies won't simply adopt new technologies without incentives.
But the part that you don't understand is that incentives don't come from no where. You go along with me in saying that incentives are OK, but where do you expect those incentives to come from? Government just can't simply throw incentives out left and right. It is that thought that has run up the biggest budget deficit ever in just 8 years. So what do we do to get those shiny incentives? We have to tax. And contrary to your belief, we don't have to tax companies into the red. And "Joe the Plumbers" won't go belly up because of taxes. If a company goes belly up, it is because of poor management, not because of taxes.
So while you say that it wasn't lack of regulation that sent the American auto industry into the red, but poor management, you are exactly right. When there is lack of regulation, all that is left is poor management. There is no other excuse, but poor management. The is why when it comes to companies making right choices with the good of consumers, the earth, and resources in mind, then a little government watching is a good thing.
As far as your other Gore article, the reason why I didn't comment on it was because I had already wrote a page long post to your other article. Sorry I disappointed you. I don't care was stake Al Gore has in any company. The plain fact of the matter is that both sides have stake or money in companies. You can name people on the "green" side that receive money from companies and I can name just as many that receive money from oil companies. That is why I don't bother looking at that stuff. That is just how the world operates. What I do look at is what they did BEFORE they started receiving money. Al Gore wasn't receiving money from carbon trade company's all his life and that is the fact that you ignore when you see things like that. What you also don't realize is that Al Gore has been studying and fighting for global warming awareness for much longer. So, no, I don't need to respond to your Al Gore article because it is pointless for me to do so.
(I am trying to now get this discussion back on to AGW. It seems as if it has moved to economics, lol. Probably my fault.)
Frogboy, as far as your (and other's) claim that the current "level-off" of temperatures from 2005-2008 shows that there is no correlation between CO2 and temperature. To me this is a poor basis for an argument. In the same way how others say that it isn't their onus to prove there IS man-made global warming, it is on the AGW activists to do so. That is true, but at the same time, the trend between CO2 and temperature has been going on for a long time and shows plainly the relation between the two. Also, if you look through the 1900's, the temperature has been clearly going up, even taking into consideration the leveling off of certain decades. So even though temperature may level off for even 5 short years, the trends show that the temperature is going up for over the last century. So just like you place the onus on the climate activists to prove global warming. I am placing the onus on those who claim temperature has leveled off to prove that is the case. With that said, you won't be able to prove that so until we've seen at least more than a decade of cooling. Which we haven't. If we do, then we can start rethinking things. But, I doubt we will.
By unfair, I mean he's laid out his citations and the information therein. Why have you not had the same courtesy?
I just re-read this comment and thought it was perfectly stated. I couldn't agree more and couldn't say it better, so rather than say it, I figured I'd quote it again. It is why so many recently have been quick to lash out and call people "socialist". Ideology is thrown out the door when looking as specific examples and when people throw around words like "communist" and "socialist", it just goes to show how ignorant they are on the specific matter at hand.
Very much so, The failure of the banks in the past 2 years was being compared to the great depression, instead of subsequent bank collapses. The problem with the analogy is that back in the 30s, there was no FDIC, FHSLA or even the Credit Union equivalient, and there were also no federal regulations of reserve deposits. So the hysteria that was used to push TARP was based on flawed analogies, and thus the bailout was flawed.
Hmmm, now what could that mean given the theme of this article. Well, if I was a thinking person, I would look to Kyoto and Copenhagen. In other words, subverting the laws of the land to those of the laws of the UN. It is no secret that Kerry campaigned on it in 04 as did Obama in 08.
The root cause of the issue that is referenced is the recession. You are talking about a component, I just expaned it to generalize about the overall market. And you best check the constitution. The president has no purse strings, Congress does, and we know who was in charge of them when TARP was created.
As you said, you were not really around in the 80s, so I can see your misconception about this. But indeed, the banking side was not that weak (the brokerage side was very weak) this time around, and the 80s saw a massive upheavel in the basic structure of banking due to failures. Without Tarp, we would have seen a similar shakeout this time, but I do not recall the world ending in the 80s due to that failure period.
The critical word here is "required". Since there is no proof it was required by BOA or CITI, it is all an exercise in linguistics. They paid it back quickly, because they did not require it. It helped them to be sure, but some banks still failed (too far gone) and others just pocketed the money (as evidenced by the rebound of the profits so quickly - has GM and Chrysler made billions since their bailout?). The refutation is not in saying they have not paid back the money, but in that they needed the money to begin with. They clearly did not. BOA was buying companies right, left and center up to the bailout! Companies going belly up are not buying other companies during their swan song.
Ignoring your condescending rhetoric, I will state I am an Economist. To be clearer I am an monetarist (think of Walter E. Williams). So I understand the subject very well. It is not an idealogical platitude, and I am not your champ. It is cold hard reality that does not take a doctorate to understand (it helps, but is not a requirement). And you are free to disagree with me. I was responding to a false statement you made with clarification, so I was unaware that is unacceptable. As you will note, I do try to avoid talking in absolutes, so you will also note I never said never (until now). However exceptions should be exceptions and not the rule. Unfortunately they are becoming the rule.
As for your classification of Paulson and Bernanke, I would suggest you read up more on them. You will find they are not the free marketers you trumpet them to be. I am not suggesting they are socialilsts or worse (there are more than 2 states of thought in this area), but they are hardly what one would call a freemarketer. Nor do I agree with them. If you are looking for a good Fed Chairman, think Volcker.
So you see, while you dismiss and label and condescend me (after accusing me of those crimes), I have background in the subject, just as I am sure you have background in your speciality. Does that make us right all the time just because we have a history of education in that field? I leave that to you to answer.
Because you cannot connect the dots. And they are not many to connect. You only have to ask yourself where the money for BOTH comes from. And then ask what the hell the government is doing on either in the first place. The answer is pure politics. That is why. You can deny it, but that does not make your denial valid. And the proof is in the pudding. You only have to look at where the stimulus money went to AND what conditions - pre and post facto - were placed on the TARP and porkulus money. Whether the conditions are put on pre or post payoff does not matter. They are both there in the end.
And yes, i am definitely alleging that funds from TARP were spent on assets that were not toxic. In case you have not heard, the current administration is very mad at the banks for not doing exactly that - re-issuing bad loans to cover bad loans. instead the banks took that money and put it into safe investments - T-Bills. Big shock. The money to cover the toxic assets - where a connection can be made - went to Fannie and Freddie - both of which were already government owned, operated and mismanaged.
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