Obama's domestic agenda has been a living hell for quite some time, but now his foreign policy is starting to totally unravel at a breakneck pace. Total capitulation on the defence shield with nothing in return from Russia.
News Article
They don't like the idea of the U.S. to commit themselves to a country on their border with such enthousiasm. BMD was such commitment.
I see what you mean, The F in the designation stands for fighter, the primary role is fighter, that can also do some ground attack. The A is for ground attack, helicopters, UAV, and the obsolete A-10 that saved my butt are for ground attack. To protect the ground attack planes you need a fighter cover above. It is called combined arms team. Just like infantry and tanks are part of the combined arms team. YOu can't assult with tanks alone or infantry alone, you need infantry to hold the ground, tanks in support ground attack planes above and fighter cover. For missiles you need a layered defence, you seem to think that one missile system will do it all. That is not how it works. We are working to take out missiles in three phases. The boost phase, we can take out a quarter to half the missiles launched. in flight we take out a bunch more and then in the terminal phase we take out what is left. the systems Mr. Obama just ended was for the flight stage. This means we have to do more in the terminal phase which is the hardest phase to take out. Don't think that one system is the be all and end all, it is only a part of an intergrated system.
Arty, while your last post was entertaining (and probably in line with the average persons knowledge of weapons systems) it was far from how it really works. As Paladin stated above, it takes many components to make a successful offense and defense. No single system is ever the answer. However, in the case of nukes, they can be the final word.
FYI, the proper designator for the F-18 (which I use for brevity) is F/A-18. It was purposely designed for both air superiority and ground attack right from the start. In fact it replaced the A-6 and most recently the F-14. As for the F-22 (a pure fighter) and the F-35 (a multi-role fighter which will eventually replace the F/A 18 and AV-8) any ground attack mission should be fine. Why? Largely because of the munitions used. Since people the world over are upset when Ahmed's goat gets killed in an air strike, the US uses an abundance of persuasion guided munitions (let's hope any future enemies are do conscientious). A balloon (//sarcasm) could deploy these in the areas we are currently fighting in.
UAV's could be rigged to launch a nuke (provided the user has the technology to make nukes the in small enough size like the US or Russia can). Many nations have UAV's. Few (if any) have UAV's comparable to those of the US (Global Hawk, Predator). Even, these can only operate in areas of air superiority, or against an unsophisticated enemy. They do have a small radar cross-section, but are far from immune from SAMs. Your nuke capable UAV scenario is basically fantasy for the foreseeable future.
Anthony... sorry your OP got so off target.
BTW F-22's never have to turn on their radar to engage. AWACS (an other aircraft, including other F-22s) can supply targeting data hundreds of miles away (Just imagine if you knew this aircrafts classified abilities). Remember layered defense/offense.
[sarcasm]But see, now that we are no longer "evil" and willingly disarming ourselves, nobody could possibly still want to attack us. it is a win-win[/sarcasm]
(note, that sentence was false and stupid, but that is what they seem to think)
I also don't get the whole "lets only develop weapons for fighting technologically inferior guerilla opponents" and discard any development of conventional weapons... the sole reason why we do not USE our conventional weapons anymore is because we actually managed to improve them to the point where others do not wish to attack us. If we let those fall behind, we become a tasty vulnerable target, and will be attacked. It is really simple actually.
Very well. Please do explain to me how I was incorrect about the Battleship vs. Carrier debate, or the Maginot line. Or, tell me why I'm wrong about the French pre-WW2 belief about tanks and infantry. Or please, explain to me why the A-10 is such a terrible close air support aircraft, and show me another aircraft that has a better record (again, emphasis on close air support, NOT dropping bombs on buildings)
Or, explain to me why I'm so incredibly stupid when the ABM shield has yet to succesfully be tested against an actual, valid ICBM, any flavor will do.
What do I mean by this? Every single test, every.single.test. has been done with the deck stacked very heavily in favor of the interceptor.
The operators know the launch time and location of the missile
The operators know ahead of time the missile's target, it's course, what trajectory it will take.
The missile follows a plain jane arc, no evasive maneuvers or course deviations.
Even then, the interceptor can't hit the missile everytime.
Throw in instances in which the interceptor never even left the ground because of various software problems (those officially don't count in the tally though, so don't worry) and things aint looking so hot.
If they were really serious about this program, a great test would be if an independent team was brought in to launch a dummy warhead at, say Alaska (cause folks would get antsy over anything flying over the mainland) and to see what would really happen if there was no prior warning.
Would the launch be detected properly? How effective would they be at actually pinpointing the target of the strike? And of course, if the missile made a course deviation, would the interceptor actually still be able to hit it?
Because NONE of the above has ever been accurately tested, no one can say. And the above test will never happen because companies like Boeing have too much dough on the line!
And I've never disputed this. However, you have current weapons systems in the works, like the F-35, that will supposedly be able to do everything in it's "multi-role"
But, don't listen to me. I'm just a know-nothing. Instead, listen to Pierre Sprey, one of the fellows behind both the F-16 and the A-10:
"Even without new problems, the F-35 is a “dog.” If one accepts every performance promise the DoD currently makes for the aircraft, the F-35 will be:
Overweight and underpowered: at 49,500 lb (22,450kg) air-to-air take-off weight with an engine rated at 42,000 lb of thrust, it will be a significant step backward in thrust-to-weight ratio for a new fighter.
At that weight and with just 460 sq ft (43 m2) of wing area for the air force and Marine Corps variants, it will have a wing-loading of 108 lb per square foot. Fighters need large wings relative to their weight to enable them to manoeuvre and survive. The F-35 is actually less manoeuvrable than the appallingly vulnerable F-105 “Lead Sled” that got wiped out over North Vietnam in the Indochina War. With a payload of only two 2,000 lb bombs in its bomb bay – far less than US Vietnam-era fighters – the F-35 is hardly a first-class bomber either. With more bombs carried under its wings, the F-35 instantly becomes non-stealthy and the DoD does not plan to seriously test it in this configuration for years. As a close air support attack aircraft to help US troops engaged in combat, the F-35 is a nonstarter. It is too fast to see the tactical targets it is shooting at; too delicate and flammable to withstand ground fire; and it lacks the payload and especially the endurance to loiter usefully over US forces for sustained periods as they manoeuvre on the ground. Specialised for this role, the air force’s existing A-10s are far superior." http://www.counterpunch.org/sprey09092008.html And of course, the unit cost. You're going to be paying at least 250 Billion for these puppies, or more. You certainly payed a lot of moolah for the F-22, over 350 milion for each single fighter- http://www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/feature/105059/op_ed:-putting-lipstick-on-the-f_35%3F.html
At that weight and with just 460 sq ft (43 m2) of wing area for the air force and Marine Corps variants, it will have a wing-loading of 108 lb per square foot. Fighters need large wings relative to their weight to enable them to manoeuvre and survive. The F-35 is actually less manoeuvrable than the appallingly vulnerable F-105 “Lead Sled” that got wiped out over North Vietnam in the Indochina War.
With a payload of only two 2,000 lb bombs in its bomb bay – far less than US Vietnam-era fighters – the F-35 is hardly a first-class bomber either. With more bombs carried under its wings, the F-35 instantly becomes non-stealthy and the DoD does not plan to seriously test it in this configuration for years.
As a close air support attack aircraft to help US troops engaged in combat, the F-35 is a nonstarter. It is too fast to see the tactical targets it is shooting at; too delicate and flammable to withstand ground fire; and it lacks the payload and especially the endurance to loiter usefully over US forces for sustained periods as they manoeuvre on the ground. Specialised for this role, the air force’s existing A-10s are far superior."
http://www.counterpunch.org/sprey09092008.html
And of course, the unit cost. You're going to be paying at least 250 Billion for these puppies, or more. You certainly payed a lot of moolah for the F-22, over 350 milion for each single fighter-
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/feature/105059/op_ed:-putting-lipstick-on-the-f_35%3F.html
They don't like the idea of the U.S. to commit themselves to a country on their border with such enthusiasm.
The way you explained it it seemed more like the US had committed themselves to a country on their border with such a useless weaponry.
Very well. Please do explain to me how I was incorrect about the Battleship vs. Carrier debate
This is easy, are you sure you want me to do this?
Battleships were around before the aircraft carrier. The state of the art weapon at the time was the battleship. Poorer nations could not afford a capitol ship and found a cheaper way to do war. Carrier warfare was in its infancy while battleships were a proven weapon and only the brightest in military strategy could see the usefulness of the new weapon to exploit the weakness of the capitol ships. The treaty of WWI limited the number and size of capitol ships but there was no restriction on aircraft carriers. You are looking at things in 20/20 hind sight. It is like blaming the dead passengers of the titanic for not knowing it would sink the first time at sea. By your logic as soon as an aircraft carrier was built the world powers should have scrapped the battleships and made the untried carrier the new capitol ship. When war broke out there was no time for anyone to make the change over. In fact we did not finish the change over until the Korean conflict 4 years later.
or the Maginot line.
This one is fun. The strategy was sound and the system was well designed, the problem was they did not extend the line around its entire border. Being friends with Belgium the French did not want to offend its friend so it only put up the line on the border with Germany. Poor execution of a good strategy. Germany seeing the weakness exploited it by taking Belgium first then entered France through that border. You may not have heard of this word, it is called innovation. Each time you build a weapon it is generally believed to be worthless until it is tried in battle. The radar invisible aircraft were untried and we worried all the way until they came back a few times unhurt.
Or, tell me why I'm wrong about the French pre-WW2 belief about tanks and infantry.
I am not saying you are totally wrong just ignorant of the facts. Tanks were new just like aircraft carriers. In WWI when they were first used they were not that much help because they only traveled at a top speed on flat ground at 3 miles an hour, had to be completely still before they could fire and without infantry support they were in danger. It was not until the 70’s did anyone come up with an integrated strategy that worked using tanks and infantry, During the 6 day war Israel sent out tanks without infantry and the tanks were slaughtered with a new anti-tank weapon. After that was seen then Israel put troops with the tanks and things changed rapidly. The same with air defense, Israel sent out planes without support of troops and ground attack aircraft and ran into the SA-6 and got their butts handed to them. Once the Egyptian strategy was seen for what it was Israel adjusted and the advantage was lost. Germany did the same thing, they did not build a heavy tank till almost the end of the war and paid a heavy price for it. The light tanks that were used in the beginning of the war worked so well because it was a new strategy. Once the strategy was figured out, countermeasures were created and Germany lost.
Or please, explain to me why the A-10 is such a terrible close air support aircraft, and show me another aircraft that has a better record (again, emphasis on close air support, NOT dropping bombs on buildings)
It is a great weapon, without it I would not be here to argue with you. It is at the end of its life and has been replaced. We could use it in Iraq and Afghanistan because they had Soviet weapons that are easy to defeat as long as we had control of the air. The Apache is the replacement for the Warthog. The A-10 was designed to do one thing and one thing only, cut Soviet tanks in half. We called it the Fairchild can opener. The apache does the same thing only different. It can hit a target without the target knowing it is being attacked until just before they die. The Apache is a better weapon but was untried until the gulf war.
Okay, the data as I pointed out before is old data that has been out for decades. Like the CIA you only hear about the failures not the successes. To further confuse things you are getting data from 25 different weapons systems that make up the ABM shield.
This is partially true. In the beginning the tests were don’t to see if it could be done. Once it was proven to be practical then they give it harder and harder tests. I is called “TESTING”.
Yes, so we don’t accidentally launch against Russia or China, or anyone else we have to set up a test window. It does not prove anything if they have the system in New York and they launch on Florida.
This is not true, they knew the target and approximate time of the launch window. The two submarine launches were free fired. The system was set on auto and acquired and destroyed both of them.
Another test was done on an old satellite, it was a success. This was done to prove that the anti-satellite weapons of the USSR that are still in orbit could be taken out when we need to do them. Two launches from missile silos were done and one was hit the other was not. Well not destroyed, it hit the missile but not hard enough to take it out. Those were launched from California over Hawaii.
Again, you are looking at 1980’s data. Lets just say it has been refined.
Yeah, been there done that only instead of Alaska we chose Hawaii because you can program the missile to miss the islands and hit the sea so people don’t get hurt.
May I suggest you watch American news media, all the above that I wrote is unclassified and has been released to the public. Some of it is on the military channel if you can get our cable stations.
Arty, as I pointed out before the F-35 has been designed differently than the F-4 Phantom There are three or four F-35’s the one for the Marines has different capabilities than the one designed for the Air force .The savings come in by the commonality of the general parts. Engines and tires and the like are all interchangeable between branches. The Marines version can’t fill the role of and air superiority fighter as well as the Air Force variant. We are just using the same frame and basic parts, the branch specific parts are what makes them different. The Air force variant does not have VTOL capabilities the Marines do. All have the proven ability to super-cruise. That is to fly supersonic without using afterburners which fixes the problem with the Harrier as like the A-10 is a subsonic platform. It has a radar cross section of the F-117 stealth fighter, making it very hard to spot and or hit. There are other things that you don’t need to know but it is not near the lead sled.
Funny the Marine variant is able to hover over the battle field like a helicopter that means it is not too fast for ground support. The article you linked was flawed heavily either by ignorance or design to prove their points. As I pointed out the A-10 was replaced by the Apache. Payload is a problem because when they go out fully loaded they are easy to spot on radar. Usually we wait till we have control of the air before we do that.
Back to the point at hand, the removal of the missile shield from Europe was a bad idea because it makes us look weak and when we look weak we get attacked. The system works well, as I have stated and is only one part of a three part system.
I am not sure I get your point. Can you rephrase?
You seemed to be arguing that the US are deploying a known useless system in a way that would threaten Russia, despite the fact that the system used to threaten Russia was known to be useless.
Oh. The BMD was useless in all but commitment. BMD existing in Poland meant that the U.S. were commited to the defence of that system, and thus, the defence of Poland. That icked Russia a very large amount. they are already annoyed to no end because of U.S.'s ventures (and rise of influence) in the Caucase, Central Asia and Ukraine...
U.S. are already modernising and bolstering Poland's military. They will become a major player in the mid-run.
And by undoing that commitment Obama has improved the US' international standing?
Actually, dead wrong there. There were restrictions even on aircraft carriers. And poor nations did not cultivate the aircraft carrier- rich nations that already had battleships were the pioneers.
Wrong again my friend. Throughout the 1920's and 1930's the United States figured out that Carrier warfare was the future, particularly through the trials and tests of the various Panama Wargames. This is all well documented but a good summary can be found here;
http://www.history.navy.mil/download/car-5.pdf
In 1921 Admiral Sims proclaimed "The Battleship is dead" after watching a carrier-launched attack. This was two decades before the U.S got into WW2, and the U.S admiralty knew very well that the only thing that saved their bacon at pearl harbor was that the carriers were all out of port (and that the fuel tank farm didn't get hit)
With that said, and even with the benefits of the carrier made widely known, there were admirals in both the U.S and Japanese (and especially British) fleets who still stuck to doctrine of the biggest ship with the biggest guns as the primary tool, but by WW2 they were mostly sidelined.
Again, please go back to school. The Maginot line was an absolute disaster and never should have been built. Why?
1) Most of the gun emplacements only pointed in one direction. After the Germans went around the line, the French couldn't even turn most of their big guns on the Germans
2) Assuming that you can build an unasaillable wall across your ENTIRE border has always been foolhardy throughout history, and this illustrates' the French Army's lack of understanding of manoevre warfare. Even if the Germans had carried out a frontal assault, at some point they would have broken through a point in the wall and poured through, then encircled the forces at the front. The Germans did this to great effect throughout the war, time and again. The Russians, having been Blitzkrieged many times, learned how to thwart the Germans manoevers, but at very great cost (much greater than the French were willing to commit)
Kursk was a prime example of how to stop Blitzkrieg warfare, in which, the Russians essentially had a wall of forces that went back in depth almost endlessly. Line after line of forces, trench after trench, division after division and so on. Basically, when the Germans "broke through" a line at Kursk they found another line. Break through that, and another line, and another and so on and so on. To accomplish this, the Russians built defensive formations and obstacles that make the Maginot line look like child's play and much of the fortifications weren't big fancy concrete buildings because the Russian's knew that they would be bypassed anyway. And of course the fact that they were willing to sacrifice wave after wave of their own troops to bog down the Germans.
The French, on the other hand, while they had a very nice front line of fortifications, had very little depth to the Maginot line, only about 25 km.
3) Here's the real kicker. The French built the Maginot line expressly to discourage a direct frontal attack, and to encourage the Germans to attack Belgium instead. Contrary to popular belief the Germans didn't stun the French by "going around" the line, they did exactly what the French hoped for. The reasoning behind this was interesting; the French believed that attacking Belgium would take time for the German army to maneuver there, buying the French time to prepare. The French also believed that the German assault on Belgium would,at minimum, get bogged down and take a couple of weeks, thus buying even more time for the French to mobilize forces to send to the front.
Also, the myth that the Maginot line ended at the Belgian border is also FALSE. The Maginot line actually connected to extensive Belgian fortifications, essentially extending it.
What DID surprise the French was how quickly the Germans were able to get so many forces to Belgium, and how quickly the Germans were able to break through at the strongest fortified point in the Belgian system- Fort Eben-Emael.
The Germans took this fort through a unique assault that mostly went around the defenses of the fort- they flew troops in on gliders. Once they took the fort, this prevented the Belgians' from destroying two of three key bridges, and voilla, the Germans had bypassed the entire defensive capability of the Maginot line.
Sorry, wrong again my friend. The Apache is -not- the replacement for the Warthog. The Apache is Army, the Warthog is Airforce. And, the Warthog just had a big upgrade and is scheduled to remain in service at least until the 2020's, at which point it is to be -theoretically- replaced by the F-35. The Apache, was never intended to replace the Warthog but to replace the Cobra.
Yes, tanks were new but in the 20's and 30's the Germans learned all about their potential for maneuvering around enemy forces. Just like the U.S with carriers, the Germans had a good 15 or more years to really experiment and learn about a new style of warfare. The French and Brits, not wanting to deviate from standard dogma, still believed that tanks were meant solely to support infantry which is why in many cases, the Germans found French and English tanks that had run out of fuel- as both Armies only provided enough fuel for a tank to travel a few miles as they never imagined it would outstrip the infantry.
As to your quotes about the missile tests, please provide the data. I've seen news reports and press releases, but they've all been mostly stacked in favor of the interceptor or using missiles going in a nice straight line. The truth is, if they could shoot down a missile that's deviating in it's course, they would have trumpeted it to the world by now.
Well, Pierre Sprey was one of McNamara's "whiz kids" who was instrumental in the design and creation of the F-16 and A-10. He was also a member of the defense reform movement in the 1970's which took on large bureaucratic arms developers and took them to task for spending more and more money to develop fewer and often ineffective weapons. So, when he speaks, I listen!
There is no "international standing". You have to look at each countries's views ans politics.
Poland isn't happy about it, obviously. But Poland has to learn that things won't always go their way when they get the support of a superpower. They still get massive military backing, as previously stated, and with or without BMD, they win a lot out of their deal with the U.S.
Other countries in the regions don't care much about that, or maybe they would actually react happily at the news.. After all, after the Bush era, U.S. has the reputation of being aggressive about their defence. Showing some signs of backing down on a project as controversial as the BMD might get some limited credit among the general population (not so among the political elites).
Russia is happy, obviously. But then again, they know too that the BMD is just the point of the Iceberg, and they are afraid of the whole iceberg: USA influence in the FSU. I don't know how your goverment will act about it.. but as I said earlier, Ukraine is a foregone conclusion: they will get back to their previous allegiance to Russia soon.
The U.S. of A. don't look weaker in Europe by backing down on that project, but they do confirm that you are vulnerable on the issue of Iran (something that everybody suspected anyway).
The only concern that I (and STRATFOR) have is the White House's declaration that "the decision has nothing to do with Russia". While a white lie is common tactic in international (and domestic) politics, this one is slightly incompetent when you lookat the whole picture. Either you believe the White House, and you then think that the White House was stupid ennough not to consider ZE regional influence/consequence, or the White House did not thought up of a better excuse. But then again, Obama is facing irrational pressure from the domestic side, and probably don't want to give a single sentence that the conservatives might use as proof that he is weak.
I will put this whole aspect of the problem in the "Nixon goes to China" area of political psychology.
But will we actually get anything from it?
I meant, "Nixon goes to China" because Nixon was the only president right-wing ennough to make concessions to China without being attacked by the conservative pundits as a "Traitor to America".
Obama will be pressed to look as less conciliant to the Russians as possible because he knows there is millions of crazy conservative that just want to jump the gun on him anyway, they are simply waiting for a new excuse to do so. That makes him vulnerable on the international side.
Arty, nothing wrong with the A-10 at all, it's a fine (probably the finest) ground support aircraft in the world. But (and here seems to be the disconnect you can't grasp) it needs to operate in Allied controlled airspace. It is basically the Stuka of modern air warfare. The Stuka worked great until the Germans sent it over the English Channel. The Brits had air superiority and slaughtered the Stuka's. The Stuka still preformed moderately well in other theaters (Especially the Eastern front) throughout the war, but its reputation as a "war winning" weapon was ruined. The A-10 works in the environment it's in now because the US controls the skies. It would most likely have a higher attrition rate if flown in combat against some nation like Russia.
You speak of comparing apples (missiles) and oranges (battleships). Here's the problem with your battleship theory. They have been pulled out in every major conflict the US has had up until the 1st Gulf War. Why? They are obsolete right? The fact is NOTHING can give support to beach landings or near-shore operations like the guns of a battle ship (25 miles). The Iraqis in Kuwait literally shit their pants when the guns fired on the day of the invasion. Aircraft cannot provide close to that kind of fire power sustained over hours or even days (and Marines love battleships). I agree the main purpose of the ship is history (as you point out), which was to sink other battleships. Sucks being the last. It's not worth the cost to build something with a limited reach (even if it has cruise missiles), manpower intensive, lot of up keep, little path to upgrade, and in which smaller platforms can carry missiles. The explosion in Iowa's gun torrent signaled the end of this 60 year old weapons system, but even now we have nothing comparable (in bombardment efficiency). Now if you want to pull any other weapon out of history, start another thread, we can talk about spears vs. arrows there.
Back to the article (again). You have some pretty tough standards for an ABM in its infancy. The "rigged" test you speak of would be like shooting a needle, from your front yard to the backyard, through the eye of another needle. Oh, and that target is moving at 100mph to boot. Reeks of failure wouldn't you say? There is this little word called telemetry that must be considered. When an ICBM is launched, radars determine it's speed, trajectory and course- feed this into the missiles computer to make the interception. Missile technology itself is pretty constant (we can make a fast rocket easy enough), it's guidance that is improving quickly, much of it in software code. The missiles that were put to be put in Poland would have been continuously upgraded over their life. Now, your reasoning again why this are ineffective or obsolete were??? I forget since so much unrelated BS has filtered through.
You'll get the effect of Obama's foreign policy when Iran's Ahmadinejad. I'm sure he will be unable to hide his joy. Of course anything to make people happy right?
what do you mean by "Iran's Ahmadinejad"?
Yes, widely known but not accepted by the people that mattered. Yes, we built carriers but it was the Jananese that exploited the weakness after the UK proved that naval avation could sink battleships. Also proven by General Mitchel who was forced out of the army for proving it. Japan broke the treaty and built more than allowed and no one did anything about it. Germany with all thier inovations did not build any that I remember because they were afraid of the British navy.
No one said it was not a disaster, the error was not completing the wall around the nation. It worked well in China only because there were no holes in it. The line was designed to hold off an army long enough to bring up troops from around the country. The line was a delaying tactic not the be all and end all to the nations defence. Your arguments made my point thanks.
When the Air force announced they were getting rid of the warthog and not replacing it, the army came up with the apache. The cobra was not an anti-tank weapon till close to the end of its life. CONTEXT will help.
That is an assumption on your part, if you can find an obsucre article about Admaril Sims written 30 years after his death to prove your point you can find the rest if you want to. I am internet challenged and don't surf much excpt when working on my books. It took me an hour just to find out about Sims.
McNamara, the man credited with the loss of Vietnam, the distruction of our military that lasted for decades. You listen to people like that? THey had to come up with something to replace the failed F-4 that Mac forced into all branches of the military, yup he would know about wasting money and getting things wrong.
And Tony Blair had the left-wing credentials to pull of Iraq. Didn't work though. The left are not as easily convinced by rational thought.
Obama missed the chance to be the left-winger who didn't cave in to the Russians.
You just proved my point
Jimmy Carter II, hell; try James Buchanan. Vain, pompous, arrogant; did nothing while the Union fell apart around him.
YOUR point was that Obama made the wrong decision?
I thought it was mine.
Sorry (interruptions will definitely ruin your thought patterns when writing) The broken statement actually was to say, The Iranian president - by hook or crook - will be gloating at the UN this week. He know the missile/radar pullout of Eastern Europe was a coup for him, he probably feels he is able to change world policy to his will (true or not). This will only embolden him, not deter him.
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